Characterizing Subpopulations with Better Response to Treatment Using Observational Data – an Epilepsy Case Study

Electronic health records and health insurance claims, providing observational data on millions of patients, offer great opportunities, and challenges, for population health studies. The objective of this study is identifying subpopulations that are likely to benefit from a given treatment using observational data. We refer to these subpopulations as “better responders” and focus on characterizing these using linear scores with a limited number of variables. Building upon well-established causal inference techniques for analyzing observational data, we propose two algorithms that generate such scores for identifying better responders, as well as methods for evaluating and comparing these scores. We applied our methodology to a large dataset of ~135,000 epilepsy patients derived from claims data. Out of this sample, 85,000 were used to characterize subpopulations with better response to next-generation (“Newer”) anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs), compared to an alternative treatment by first-generation (“Older”) AEDs. The remaining 50,000 epilepsy patients were then used to evaluate our scores. Our results demonstrate the ability of our scores to identify large subpopulations of epilepsy patients with significantly better response to newer AEDs.