Stochastic and deterministic controls on pore size evolution during cementation in porous geological media: a population dynamics approach

Stochastic and deterministic controls on pore size evolution during cementation in porous geological media: a population dynamics approach | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Stochastic and deterministic controls on pore size evolution during cementation in porous geological media: a population dynamics approach Rolando Carbonari, Simon Emmanuel This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9470305/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The distribution of pore sizes in a rock evolves continuously throughout its diagenetic history, strongly affecting flow and storage properties. One of the most important drivers of this evolution is mineral cementation, although existing models have not simultaneously represented the distinct effects of carbonate and quartz cement within a single framework. Here we develop a modified population dynamics model that represents cementation as a combination of deterministic, size-dependent pore closure and stochastic, size-independent porosity reduction. We test the model against pore size distributions derived from digital rock image analysis of three sandstone samples with contrasting cementation histories, and demonstrate that the hybrid approach outperforms both purely deterministic and purely stochastic models. Carbonate cement preferentially occludes large pores, truncating the tail of the pore size distribution and disproportionately reducing permeability relative to the volume of porosity lost. Quartz cement, by contrast, preferentially reduces the abundance of smaller pores through uniform grain-surface overgrowth, leaving the largest flow pathways largely intact. Analysis of the optimized model parameters reveals that the deterministic component is only well-constrained where carbonate cementation is sufficiently abundant to impose a detectable size-selective signature. Our results demonstrate that the framework provides a computationally efficient basis for connecting cementation history to pore structure evolution in porous media. Image analysis Porosity modeling Diagenesis Permeability Cement Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementary120426.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9470305","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":633524472,"identity":"39c48f2b-aaa5-476f-b88b-92e76d8b8c6c","order_by":0,"name":"Rolando Carbonari","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"the Hebrew University of Jerusalem","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rolando","middleName":"","lastName":"Carbonari","suffix":""},{"id":633524474,"identity":"0a43393c-0999-472f-a9c3-7e1a6684ec68","order_by":1,"name":"Simon Emmanuel","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"the Hebrew University of Jerusalem","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Simon","middleName":"","lastName":"Emmanuel","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-20 09:55:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9470305/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9470305/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108804557,"identity":"a4b02e60-5b2c-42e8-9880-d3887067f9c0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-08 15:21:36","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1621524,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Papercmtpatternsmodel200426.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9470305/v1_covered_45f996ae-b011-44d8-bb94-c131427ede62.pdf"},{"id":108585330,"identity":"7dfbff28-9c31-41e1-8b29-26b610eb788b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-06 08:51:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":187935,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementary120426.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9470305/v1/f693244ed80084715b114e17.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Stochastic and deterministic controls on pore size evolution during cementation in porous geological media: a population dynamics approach","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Image analysis, Porosity modeling, Diagenesis, Permeability, Cement","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9470305/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9470305/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe distribution of pore sizes in a rock evolves continuously throughout its diagenetic history, strongly affecting flow and storage properties. One of the most important drivers of this evolution is mineral cementation, although existing models have not simultaneously represented the distinct effects of carbonate and quartz cement within a single framework. Here we develop a modified population dynamics model that represents cementation as a combination of deterministic, size-dependent pore closure and stochastic, size-independent porosity reduction. We test the model against pore size distributions derived from digital rock image analysis of three sandstone samples with contrasting cementation histories, and demonstrate that the hybrid approach outperforms both purely deterministic and purely stochastic models. Carbonate cement preferentially occludes large pores, truncating the tail of the pore size distribution and disproportionately reducing permeability relative to the volume of porosity lost. 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