Predictive Time Series Modeling of Malaria Incidence in India: A 20-Year Retrospective and 5-Year Forecast

Background Malaria poses a significant health challenge in India, with notable contributions to the global malaria burden. This study aims to analyze trends in malaria incidence in India over the past two decades, evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions. Objective The objective of this study is to analyze trends in malaria incidence in India over the past decades, evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions, and project future trends in order to support the country’s goal of malaria elimination by 2030. Methods A comprehensive 20-year dataset was utilized to conduct time series analyses, including linear regression and ARIMA modeling. The linear regression model assessed the trend in malaria incidence per 1,000 population at risk, while the ARIMA model was used for forecasting future trends. Residuals were evaluated for adequacy to ensure model reliability. Results The linear regression analysis revealed a significant annual decrease in malaria incidence by approximately 0.92 units (p < 0.001), explaining 90.77% of the variability in the data. The ARIMA model forecasts indicate a continued decline, projecting negative incidence values by 2026 and 2027, despite some residual autocorrelation suggesting further model refinement may be necessary. Discussion These findings highlight the effectiveness of current public health strategies and the importance of ongoing monitoring to address remaining challenges. The projected downward trend aligns with India’s goal of malaria elimination by 2030, reinforcing the need for sustained interventions in high-burden areas. Conclusion This study underscores the positive impact of public health initiatives on malaria incidence in India, while emphasizing the necessity for continuous research and adaptive strategies to achieve the ambitious target of malaria eradication by 2030.