Understanding COVID-19 nonlinear multi-scale dynamic spreading in Italy

Abstract The outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy took place in Lombardia, a densely populated and highly industrialized northern region, and spread across the northern and central part of Italy according to quite different temporal and spatial patterns. In this work, a multi-scale territorial analysis of the pandemic is carried out using various models and data-driven approaches. Specifically, a logistic regression is employed to capture the evolution of the total positive cases in each region and throughout Italy, and an enhanced version of an SIR-type model is tuned to fit the different territorial epidemic dynamics via a differential evolution algorithm. Hierarchical clustering and multidimensional analysis are further exploited to reveal the similarities/dissimilaritiesof the remarkably different geographical epidemic developments. The combination of parametric identifications and multi-scale data-driven analyses paves the way towards a closer understanding of the nonlinear, spatially nonuniform epidemic spreading in Italy.