A Quantitative Analysis of the Need for High Conversion Efficiency PV Technologies in Carbon Mitigation Strategy

We consider the restrictions on photovoltaic (PV) capacity that are caused by limitations on where panels can be sited, and find quantitative evidence for the need for high efficiencies. We define 15% of the UK’s energy consumption as a “significant” contribution and, with London as an exemplar, we perform an idealised calculation that makes the most optimistic possible assumptions about the capabilities of future PV technologies, and use published surveys of energy usage, dwelling type and insolation. We find that covering every UK domestic roof with the highest power-conversion efficiency (PCE) solar panels currently commercially available, could produce up to 9% of the UK's energy. A 15% contribution would require PV technologies with >37% PCE, more than the theoretical Shockley-Queisser limit. Replacing the idealising assumptions with more realistic estimates increases this by 2-3 times. Alternatively, a solar farm using the currently available PCEs would require a politically challenging ~1200km2 of new land, roughly the area of Greater London, for this 15% contribution. We conclude that PCEs must be driven higher even than the Shockley-Queisser limit for PV to play a significant part in carbon mitigation.