A Critical Bottleneck in Energy Transition: Quantitative Predictions and Potential Strategies for Lithium Resource Depletion

A Critical Bottleneck in Energy Transition: Quantitative Predictions and Potential Strategies for Lithium Resource Depletion | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article A Critical Bottleneck in Energy Transition: Quantitative Predictions and Potential Strategies for Lithium Resource Depletion Fei Wei, Zewei Zou, Zhexi Xiao, Zhenkang Lin, Bingchen Zhang, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6962776/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Lithium resource depletion poses a critical bottleneck to global electrification. Here, we develop an innovative learning curve model incorporating the reserve-to-production (R/P) ratio dynamics and learning rate (α) to quantitatively predict lithium depletion timelines. Our analysis reveals global lithium reserves face imminent shortage (R/P < 10) by 2042, followed by near-total depletion (R/P < 1) by 2058, validated through integrated global EV sales and installed capacity data. The rapid adoption of high-energy-density systems (e.g., NCM/NCA cathodes, Si-based anodes all-solid-state batteries), with insufficient cathode utilization efficiencies, could advance the shortage to 2037~2040. Even with 100% recycling, the 10-year service life of dominant applications (power and energy storage batteries) limits recycled lithium to ≤9% of total demand, insufficient to offset consumption growth. To address this crisis, we propose strategy-focused solutions: advancing direct lithium extraction from low-quality brines, accelerating non-lithium alternatives, and establishing global resource-sharing frameworks. This work provides actionable insights for policy-making and sustainable resource management in the energy transition era. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability lithium resource depletion learning curve model reserve-to-production ratio cathode utilization efficiency sustainable energy transition Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Introduction As more and more countries commit to net-zero emissions by 2050 to help curb global temperature rise, in recent years, the tendency of global electrification has led to an explosive growth in the demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). 1-4 The latest statistic investigation show that by the end of 2023, the total shipment of global LIBs is 1202.6 GWh, with a year-on-year increase rate of 25.6%. Divided from the three main scenarios, power batteries represent by the LIBs in electric vehicles (EV) occupy the highest proportion of 865.2GWh (71.9% in total), followed by 224.2GWh (18.6%) for energy storage batteries, and 113.2GWh (9.4%) for small batteries applied typically in portable devices. Over 90% proportion of the first and second scenarios take a dominate role in total global shipments. Furthermore, the year-on-year growth rate reached 26.5% and 40.7% for power and energy storage batteries, respectively, led to a sharp consumption increase for raw materials like lithium carbonate. 5-7 As the demand for this precious resource continues to increase, the constraints to its sustainable supply have become a critical issue. In this context, the accurate prediction of the potential depletion timeline of lithium resources is of great significance and has a significant impact on the global economic restructuring and the formulation of long-term sustainable development strategies. In the research of predicting the usage condition of lithium resource and the critical time nodes of its depletion, the learning curve model is innovatively chosen as the basic model among many prediction models. The simplicity and robustness make it a powerful tool for studying complex systems, especially the depletion of natural resources. The learning curve was first proposed by German psychologist Hermann Ebbinghaus in 1885 to describe how a person or group’s performance improves over time or through accumulated experience as they learn a new skill or task. 8-10 It shows how proficiency or efficiency of a task can change with practice, but is equally applicable to predicting resource consumption. The basic form of the learning curve is expressed as: 11 (1) where C t and C 0 are the resource consumption rate (reserve-to-production ratio) and initial consumption rate, respectively. and α are the time, and learning rate, respectively. In addition, the study draws on an approach pioneered in the semiconductor industry by Gordon Moore, who observed that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles roughly every two years. 12, 13 After investigating the condition of lithium extraction amount in recent years, a similar trend in growth was found and the rapid growth feature has been incorporated into the developed forecast model. By integrating data on EV sales and penetration ratio, installed battery capacity (GWh), and changes in lithium reserves/withdrawals, the developed model is able to more fully and accurately predict the timeline of lithium depletion. In this work, a simple and practical model is developed to evaluate the sustainability of lithium usage towards the rapid growth demand in its consumption, providing a scientific assessment tool for policy makers and industry decision-makers to guide wiser decisions in global resource management and long-term energy planning. By predicting the potential depletion timeline of lithium resources, the developed model aims to offer valuable information for resource development strategies, optimize resource allocation, and promote the development of emerging sustainable technologies. Results and Discussion 1. Construction of the Lithium Resource Learning Curve Learning curves are commonly used to predict product component prices or production times, and the basic form of these curves is similar to the predictive graph in this study. However, within the lithium resource system, price is often an unstable and partial factor. Globally, it is challenging to obtain data on the average price of a particular resource at a given time and place. Fortunately, G. West’s approach demonstrates that almost any feature that can be quantified exhibits a scalable relationship with size. 14 By applying “scaling law” proposed by G. West, it’s speculate that there is a common framework concept underlying highly disparate and complex phenomena. 15-17 This may explain why the learning curve for predicting prices bears a striking resemblance to the developed model in this work, a simple but highly policy-relevant function for predicting certain types of non-renewable resource. Thus, the same concept is utilized for the prediction of lithium resource. For a resource experiencing “explosive” growth in demand, it is necessary and meaningful to use short-term data to predict long-term behavior. It’s a great of urgency to determine whether the lithium resource in earth can meet the demand in energy transition from fossil fuels to electricity. Before 2016, the consumption of lithium resources mainly comes from portable electronic devices, medical industries, and non-ferrous metallurgy industries, remains at a relatively low and gradual consumption rate. By contrast, an explosive growth of EV and energy storage industries after 2016 induces a rapid consumption of lithium resources. 18, 19 The consumption of lithium resource after 2016 is chosen as the basic data in this study. Furthermore, based on the simulation of an “Moore’s Law” operational model, as shown in Fig.1a, the calculation result reveals that the reserve-to-production ratio (R/P) of lithium resources has dropped from 400 to ~ 100 in the past 8 years, and will continuously decline at a rate of 13.1% per year. According to this trend, R/P will be decreases to 10 at around 2042. Noteworthy, according to statistics, the R/P of oil is currently around 15 in China, 20, 21 which is higher than the value of lithium resource at around 2042, suggesting a scarcer situation of lithium resource is facing in the next 10 years. Moreover, the R/P will be further falling into 1 at around 2058, which implying the entrance into a state where proven reserves would be insufficient to meet the annual extraction demand. Less than 10 of the R/P for lithium resources is not only a change in data, but also a great challenge for global sustainable development. What’s more of a concern, the existing lithium reserves can only last less than 10 years of production. As the global demand for lithium continues to grow, particularly in driving the green energy transition, the tension of lithium resource supply will become a major bottleneck to hinder sustainable development and cause the global “lithium panic”. If stable lithium supply cannot be guaranteed, battery production will be significantly limited to affect the popularization of electric vehicles and the capability of energy storage systems, thereby slowing down the pace of global energy transformation. At the same time, the shortage of lithium resources will force the adoption of new strategies in resource management and development, including increasing resource exploration efforts, improving recycling rates, seeking alternative materials and promoting technological innovation. These measures are not only to address the supply crisis, but also to ensure the sustainability of global economy and environment. In addition, the shortage of lithium resources may trigger geopolitical tensions, and countries may pay more attention to the strategic reserve of lithium resources, leading to increased competition in the international market. Thus, the less than 10 of R/P for at around 2042 marks the beginning of the lithium resource shortage, poses a serious challenge to global sustainable development. On the one hand, in recent decades, with the deepening of the theoretical understanding of shale gas, as well as the advancement and large-scale application of horizontal well multi-stage fracturing technology since 2000, the several technological upgrades and replacements further trigger a global “shale gas revolution”, simultaneous development of oil and gas (shale gas and shale oil) leads to the significant growth in production and “fast lane” of the industry. 22-24 As for lithium resources, like the case in shale gas, theoretical and technological innovations in various direct lithium extraction (DLE) for lithium mining, represented by lithium extraction from seawater or salt lakes, geothermal brines as potential secondary lithium resources may bring additional significant opportunities for alleviating the stress in lithium usage. 25-29 On the other hands, although the lithium recycling technology developed and became a hot topic in the recent years, based on the current condition and the prediction results in Fig.1b, in every 10 years, the demands in lithium consumption will increase at nearly 12 times. In terms of the service lifetime of batteries, in general, the power batteries are about 5~8 years, the energy storage batteries are about 10~15 years. 30-33 Therefore, the average service time of energy storage batteries and power batteries is about 10 years, in the case of rapid growth in demand for lithium consumption, even if 100% of lithium can be recycled and reused, reused lithium amount during this period only accounts for about 9% of total lithium consumption requirement, which would be far from meeting the rapid growth of lithium demand, leading to serious bottleneck in lithium usage. Furthermore, a more intuitive comparison is provided by analyzing the data of reserves and production as shown in Fig.1b. It’s revealed that the production and reserve lines with confidence intervals (Cl) of lithium resource will intersect at around 2058, the emergence of intersection point suggests the ultimate exploitation of resources is coming. Furthermore, it’s intriguing that the extraction is increasing at a rate of 27.8% per year, faster than a growing rate of 10.9% for annual reservation. The difference in growth further exacerbates the decline in the R/P ratio and emphasizes the necessities of taking action before the reaching of intersection. When the time range selected for the data is further extended to past 20 years (Fig.1c) and 30 years (Fig.1d), although the growing rates are slightly different, it can also be observed that the growing rates of extraction are obviously faster than those of annual reservation. The intersection points appearing at around 2058~2060 further indicate that the crisis of lithium resource depletion is imminent. 2. Impact of Lithium Resources on the Electrification of Global Transportation Lithium plays a crucial role in the secondary battery revolution. By integrating the global EV sales and the average lithium consumption amount per EV, a clearer analysis of the lithium resource consumption rate can be obtained. It can be calculated that manufacturing a typical 3.4Ah 18650 battery requires 1.4 g of lithium, and producing a Tesla Model S requires nearly 8,000 individual batteries, which equals to approximately 11.5 kg of lithium. 34 In order to clarify the relationship between the growth rate of EV and the lithium consumption, based on the global sales volume and penetration ratio data of EV from 2016 to 2023, 35, 36 the learning curve is utilized to forecast the change trend until 2035 as shown in Fig.2a. Calculation result reveals that global sales of EV grow at an annual rate of 51.3% since 2016, suggesting a sharply rise in demand for lithium. Using the data of 2016 as starting point, the relationship between annual consumption of lithium and global EV sales can be expressed as: (2) Where and are the annual consumption of lithium and global EV sales at 2016, respectively. The formula shows that the annual lithium consumption can be estimated based on the increase in global EV sales, and provides a clearer relationship to understand the rapid growth demand for lithium driven by the EV market development. According to the world car ownership data per 1,000 people from World Health Organization (WHO), in this study, the average of top ten developed countries (the United States 863, Canada 665, Iceland 863, the United Kingdom 583, France 653, Germany 684, Finland 949, Norway 758, Sweden 615, Australia 753) are chosen as the upper limit standard, 37, 38 which estimated to be nearly 739 vehicles per 1000 people. If the world population is estimated at 9 billion, the total lithium consumption corresponding to the nearly 6.7 billion vehicles globally is 76 million tons, reaching this value corresponds to the fourth quarter at 2037. Meanwhile, the production amount in 2037 is calculated to be 71 million tons obtained from the production curve. The occurrence of this situation may be attributed to the recovery technology of LIB meets a substantial portion of the lithium resource demand or new alternatives such as sodium-ion batteries or fuel cells occupy a higher proportion in the application scenarios. Noteworthy, the annual growth rate of electric heavy-duty trucks in China has reached nearly 200% over the past two years, with the sales penetration rate reaching 14% in 2024 (82,700 vehicles sold). In the first quarter of 2025, the total sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks is 30,300 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 177% and a further rise in market penetration (from the statistical data provided by EV tank in 2025). 39 It is projected that this penetration rate will exceed 50% within the next 3~5 years, potentially driving significant lithium consumption. While global growth in EV sales is expected to be manageable on a per capita basis so far, incorporating the additional demand from energy storage and electric heavy-duty trucks will likely intensify pressure on lithium supply. Furthermore, the relationship between annual installed capacity and time is investigated through statistical analysis, which can be expressed as following: (3) Where is the annual installed capacity, is the fitting annual installed capacity at first year. As shown in Fig. 2b, the growth of installed capacity growth rate increases at a rate of 47.3%. Thus, the rapid growth of global EV sales and the installed capacity will jointly promote the sharp rise in demand for lithium consumption, and the positive correlation and synchronous growth between these two factors suggest the lithium consumption will increase in a higher rate in the future. Considering the current EV installed capacity is only account for 72% of the total in 2023 from the statistical data provided by EV tank, 5 the great development potential of the energy storage batteries may cause continuous decrease in the proportion of EV installed capacity. Therefore, the shortage of global lithium resources will emerge at 2042, it’s a great concern that the lithium resources will not be enough to support the demand of human society to complete the envisioned green electrification era. In addition to the rapid growth of global installed capacity over time has a huge impact on the demand for lithium resources, the influences stemming from the advancements and replacements of battery systems cannot be ignored. Currently, as the demand for extended driving range of EVs and lifespan of energy storage systems continues to rise, the development of high energy-density batteries has attracted extensive attention both in academia and industry. 40-43 On the one hand, the development and application of high energy-density batteries significantly facilitates the human society, however, its negative impact on aggravating the stress of lithium utilization cannot be ignored. As show in Fig.2c, the slightly lower energy density of LFP batteries possess preferable cyclability, and lithium ion in cathode utilization efficiency (CUE) is estimated to be as high as 90%, while the higher energy-density nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA)-based batteries is only at a range of 60%~80% as the different content of nickel (detailed in Supporting information). All-solid state batteries as research frontier which have been gradually applied into the market to address the safety concern of tradition liquid batteries, the CUE drops to about 30% (detailed in Supporting information). In terms of the anodes, the CUE for the prelithiated silicon-oxide and micro-sized CVD-derived Si-C anodes are approximately 80% (detailed in Supporting information). 44 The higher demand for application of the high-capacity materials further drives the increase of integral lithium resource consumption by 50% to 100%, leading to a lithium resource crisis in 2037-2040. 3. Geographical Distribution of Lithium Resources with Undeveloped Potential Through the investigation of the global distribution of lithium resources, we further illustrate the great potential and necessity of developing DLE technologies to obtain high-grade battery-grade lithium compounds from low-quality brines. As shown in Fig.3, lithium-containing minerals and brines are distributed in a few countries, showing obvious geographical effects and posing challenges in terms of supply sustainability. Moreover, it’s worth noting that the undeveloped lithium content in seawater reaches ~230 billion tons, above 2000 times high than that of on total reserves in land and 5000 times greater than that of continental brines, which indicates the great potential of extracting lithium from seawater to alleviate the crisis of lithium resource supply in the future. 45, 46 However, the current DLE methods from seawater involve the evaporation of a large amount of water, which is time-consuming and unable to meet the rapidly growing demand for lithium consumption. 47 Moreover, they have raised serious concerns about the potential depletion of groundwater. 48 The recent developed rocking chair electrochemical process enables the rapid lithium extraction, nevertheless, the utilized anion-exchange membranes typically suffer from inferior ion selectivity, which induces severe ion backmixing and incompatibility with these low-quality brines. 49-51 To effectively address the crisis of lithium depletion and explore innovative DLE methods especially from seawater, its huge untapped reserves may significantly alleviate supply concerns. The recently developed lithium extraction technologies from “low-quality brine” with a lithium concentration lower than 0.26g l -1 or a magnesium-lithium ratio (Mg/Li) higher than 6.15, have attracts great attentions. 45 The promotion of pre-concentration methods, the development of new precipitants with high selectivity, and the non pre-concentration DLE process with high selectivity, 52-55 will become important contributors to sustainable lithium production and usage in the future. Conclusions and Outlook This study establishes an innovative learning curve model to quantitatively assess the depletion timeline of global lithium resources. Our integrated analysis, incorporating global EV sales, installed capacity, and R/P ratio of lithium dynamics, yields two critical predictions. First, the R/P ratio of lithium is projected to fall below 10 by approximately 2042, signaling severe supply constraints. Second, lithium reserves will be insufficient to meet annual demand (R/P < 1) by around 2058~2060, indicating fundamental resource exhaustion. Notably, the rapid adoption of high-energy-density battery systems (e.g., NCM/NCA cathodes, Si-based anodes, and SSBs), which exhibit low CUE, could advance the shortage timeline to 2037~2040. Even with ideal 100% lithium recycling, the 10-year service life of dominant applications (EV and energy storage batteries) limits recycled lithium to merely ~9% of total demand, which grossly inadequate to offset consumption growth. These findings underscore an urgent, unaddressed bottleneck in the global energy transition. To avert a lithium-driven crisis, we propose three critical pathways as following: Alternative Energy Technologies: Accelerate development of non-lithium solutions (e.g., sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen energy, and advanced recycling) before 2042 to diversify the energy storage portfolio and reduce lithium dependence. Global policy mandates for lithium recycling quotas are essential to secure secondary supply chains. Innovative Extraction Methods: Emulate the “shale gas revolution” by advancing DLE technologies. Breakthroughs in selectivity, efficiency, and environmental sustainability, particularly for sources with from low-quality brines/seawater ([Li⁺] 6.15), could unlock vast untapped reserves. Developing new lithium metallogenic theories may present feasible opportunities to alleviate the pressure on lithium usage. Global Resource Governance: Establish international frameworks such as coordinated exploration in underdeveloped regions, standardized cross-border recycling protocols, and transparent reserve sharing mechanisms is helpful to address geopolitical risks from uneven lithium distribution. This work provides a quantitative foundation for policymakers and industry stakeholders to redefine lithium resource strategies. Immediate action is imperative to ensure the sustainable electrification of our energy future. Declarations Acknowledgements We would like to thank the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (22209095, 22278238, 22208186, 22238004), Beijing Nova Program (2022118), Key Research and Development Program of Inner Mongolia and Ordos, Ordos-Tsinghua Innovative & Collaborative Research Program in Carbon Neutrality and Ordos Laboratory. Author contributions Prof. Fei Wei conceived the ideas and coordinated the work. Prof. Fei Wei, Prof. Chenxi Zhang, and Prof. Zhexi Xiao provided the methodology. Zewei Zou and Prof. Zhexi Xiao conducted the validation and formal analysis. Zewei Zou, Prof. Zhexi Xiao, Zhenkang Lin and Bingchen Zhang performed the investigation of data. Zewei Zou performed the original draft of manuscript. Zewei Zou, Prof. Zhexi Xiao, Prof. Fei Wei, Prof. Chenxi Zhang, and Prof. Guo Tian contributed to the review and editing. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6962776","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":477506478,"identity":"adba7745-2943-4d87-9ff6-451096823d28","order_by":0,"name":"Fei Wei","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA60lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDAC5gMMEgwMNkAGGIFAAgEtbAkgLWkSJGs5LAG2kSgtBscYGG/8qDhfJ9/Oe/h1YZsdAz97jgHDzx14tTBb9py5LWFwmC/NemZbMoNkzxsDxt4zuLWY3e//Js3YBtTCzGNmzNvGzGBwI8eAmbENj5ZjDGzSjP/OScg3g7XUM9gTp6XhgATDYR7jx7xthxkMJAhosQf75Viy5IbDPGbMPOeO80iceVZwsBePFsk2UIjV2PHL958x/sxTVi3H35688cFPPFqQARsocnhArAPEaQDG5AdiVY6CUTAKRsHIAgAdYEZbZFKJRQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1422-9784","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fei","middleName":"","lastName":"Wei","suffix":""},{"id":477506479,"identity":"a5f6a718-914c-4994-a578-5e1a3866a9cc","order_by":1,"name":"Zewei Zou","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zewei","middleName":"","lastName":"Zou","suffix":""},{"id":477506480,"identity":"37bc88bb-5ac3-4330-908f-29637ca6e300","order_by":2,"name":"Zhexi Xiao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"South China Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhexi","middleName":"","lastName":"Xiao","suffix":""},{"id":477506481,"identity":"f8e5cc3c-63c2-4811-ae54-265ef890d434","order_by":3,"name":"Zhenkang Lin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Beijing Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhenkang","middleName":"","lastName":"Lin","suffix":""},{"id":477506482,"identity":"810fa994-04bc-4611-9cce-6def9db193cb","order_by":4,"name":"Bingchen Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bingchen","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":477506483,"identity":"66ea02e7-3180-434a-a179-2c7c38b263ae","order_by":5,"name":"Guo Tian","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7057-0867","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Guo","middleName":"","lastName":"Tian","suffix":""},{"id":477506484,"identity":"daa5a343-4099-41a7-9e8d-50d86f50570c","order_by":6,"name":"Chenxi Zhang","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1708-9449","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chenxi","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-24 07:35:40","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6962776/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6962776/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":85642858,"identity":"e69e60a8-8b09-4bbc-80e4-2ddfcd35c529","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-30 08:04:23","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":95674,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003ePrediction of lithium resource depletion through learning curve model. (a) Prediction of lithium resource R/P ratio over the coming decades, based on data from 2017 to 2023. (b) Comparative prediction of lithium reserves and production volumes from 2017 to 2023, (c) 2005 to 2023, (d) 1996 to 2023.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6962776/v1/d1bb75c027f36f4b5175cd11.jpg"},{"id":85642862,"identity":"7e11d650-097a-42bd-bb3b-4fa188eeabaa","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-30 08:04:23","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":85350,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eImpact of global electrification transportation on lithium resources. (a) The change of global EV sales and prediction. (b) The change of global installed capacity over the years and predictions. (c) Analysis on the application of high energy-density system for cathode utilization efficiency.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6962776/v1/ba6de1bd32dc0a35f72200cc.jpg"},{"id":85644461,"identity":"de58db5a-79d5-4b1b-8f89-76e4f93d96ec","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-30 08:12:23","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":91797,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eGeographical distribution of global lithium resources.\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003e(a) The distribution of global lithium resources, (b) corresponding proportion of main lithium reserved countries in total all-land reserves.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6962776/v1/a883a1c241da0bef7906ccc9.jpg"},{"id":89498394,"identity":"f2babea9-2a52-49e5-8ff5-5775eff5ded0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-20 15:28:54","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":880550,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6962776/v1/a46a12b4-4ffd-4975-947b-97186025404f.pdf"},{"id":85642864,"identity":"a0a14be2-7e0a-45fd-addd-881f512835cc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-30 08:04:23","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2037366,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"supplemental information","description":"","filename":"supplementalinformationSubmittonc.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6962776/v1/eb445adf38b1ac5fe097afce.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"A Critical Bottleneck in Energy Transition: Quantitative Predictions and Potential Strategies for Lithium Resource Depletion","fulltext":[{"header":"Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eAs more and more countries commit to net-zero emissions by 2050 to help curb global temperature rise, in recent years, the tendency of\u0026nbsp;global electrification has led to an explosive growth in the demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs).\u003csup\u003e1-4\u003c/sup\u003e The latest statistic investigation show that by the end of 2023, the total shipment of global LIBs is 1202.6 GWh, with a year-on-year increase rate of 25.6%. Divided from the three main scenarios, power batteries represent by the LIBs in electric vehicles (EV) occupy the highest proportion of 865.2GWh (71.9% in total), followed by 224.2GWh (18.6%) for energy storage batteries, and 113.2GWh (9.4%) for small batteries applied typically in portable devices. Over 90% proportion of the first and second scenarios take a dominate role in total global shipments. Furthermore, the year-on-year growth rate reached 26.5% and 40.7% for power and energy storage batteries, respectively, led to a sharp consumption increase for raw materials like lithium carbonate.\u003csup\u003e5-7\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs the demand for this precious resource continues to increase, the constraints to its sustainable supply have become a critical issue. In this context,\u0026nbsp;the accurate prediction of the potential depletion timeline of lithium resources is of great significance and has a significant impact on the global economic restructuring and the formulation of long-term sustainable development strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the research of predicting the usage condition of lithium resource and the critical time nodes of its depletion, the learning curve model is innovatively chosen as the basic model among many prediction models. The simplicity and robustness make it a powerful tool for studying complex systems, especially the depletion of natural resources. The learning curve was first proposed by German psychologist\u0026nbsp;Hermann Ebbinghaus in 1885 to describe how a person or group\u0026rsquo;s performance improves over time or through accumulated experience as they learn a new skill or task.\u003csup\u003e8-10\u003c/sup\u003e It shows how proficiency or efficiency of a task can change with practice, but is equally applicable to predicting resource consumption. The basic form of the learning curve is expressed as:\u003csup\u003e11\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003cimg width=\"81\" height=\"25\" src=\"data:image/wmf;base64,R0lGODlhegAmAHcAMSH+GlNvZnR3YXJlOiBNaWNyb3NvZnQgT2ZmaWNlACH5BAEAAAAALAQABQByABsAhQAAAAAAABwcHAAAHR0AAAAdHR0dNAAAMwAdMh0AMh0dSAAcSB0zWgAzWh4zRx1GbDIdADMAADIAHTIAMjQ0HTMzWzNGbjVbbjNbgEgcAFozAFozHUczHltINUhIW0hZf0hbbkhuf11/f1lublluf2xGHW5bNW5GM39ZSG5bSH9/XX9uSH9uWW5uWWpqam5ugG6AbmaIiIBbM4BuboiIZgECAwECAwECAwECAwECAwECAwECAwECAwECAwECAwECAwb/QIBwSCwaj8ikcslsOoWBqBTzrFqv2Cygou16v2DAI0wum4Was3rNBgiiA0a72HkHBkPLnNlQbgIGRVFUbQFFf4Z7SmlJEHhGGo9rjkeRikoTSREBhEUybZtJC5dJfUcZAaZHcmqoSqykggGjngEHsUO2SnpMJkkXSRsEd52JS664AKiqXRCQt0gEtADQBMxJw51ZJVLd3WNEK8NkzkQIScZoytBL3OyxumQZoxnn0e9CBQHgTPGx7mZQTYO0r9ZAJdwOXpoVkGE0SUMyQOyHT5EMf2HooTuSrkkoJCeeeBt5ZJO2JAKVQJimwR4RbkbGVQFoJCQRD2YwEunECMA1ZCLXehLpGAEAhSEfnPyZyEHRnSUJhmRadWRDTHYEzjHiYmVYgAKwhKDqGIaD1wJHpmXwkgJAFLRCuDk4oyAZgBJE1trFgnevKr17A19RK9iKhMBRhSQu7ERhrDF9GTtxuZfs3iAAOw==\" alt=\"image\"\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; (1)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ewhere C\u003cem\u003e\u003csub\u003et\u003c/sub\u003e\u003c/em\u003e and C\u003cem\u003e\u003csub\u003e0\u003c/sub\u003e\u003c/em\u003e are the resource consumption rate (reserve-to-production ratio) and initial consumption rate, respectively. \u003cimg width=\"13\" height=\"17\" src=\"data:image/wmf;base64,R0lGODlhEwAaAHcAMSH+GlNvZnR3YXJlOiBNaWNyb3NvZnQgT2ZmaWNlACH5BAEAAAAALAMABgAQABAAhAAAAAAAAB0AAAAAHQAAMwAcSB4zRwAzWh1GbDMAADMzWzNGbjNbgEgcAEceM1ozAEhIW1luf11/f0huf2xGHX9ZSG5bSH9uSH9/XWaIiIBbM4iIZgECAwECAwECAwECAwU9IAA8QWmeQSGKxtoEzCqsgEILBE1XeqBDOpcvSEzkiMHAAakjxZirxABKG1JHVqr0KkpxSQiuIItEBcLEEAA7\" alt=\"image\"\u003eand \u003cem\u003e\u0026alpha;\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003eare\u003cem\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/em\u003ethe time, and learning rate, respectively. In addition, the study draws on an approach pioneered in the semiconductor industry by Gordon Moore, who observed that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles roughly every two years.\u003csup\u003e12, 13\u003c/sup\u003e After investigating the condition of lithium extraction amount in recent years, a similar trend in growth was found and the rapid growth feature has been incorporated into the developed forecast model. By integrating data on EV sales and penetration ratio, installed battery capacity (GWh), and changes in lithium reserves/withdrawals, the developed model is able to more fully and accurately predict the timeline of lithium depletion.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn this work, a simple and practical model is developed to evaluate the sustainability of lithium usage towards the rapid growth demand in its consumption, providing a scientific assessment tool for policy makers and industry decision-makers to guide wiser decisions in global resource management and long-term energy planning. By predicting the potential depletion timeline of lithium resources, the developed model aims to offer valuable information for resource development strategies, optimize resource allocation, and promote the development of emerging sustainable technologies.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Results and Discussion","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e1. Construction of the Lithium Resource Learning Curve\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLearning curves are commonly used to predict product component prices or production times, and the basic form of these curves is similar to the predictive graph in this study. However, within the lithium resource system, price is often an unstable and partial factor. Globally, it is challenging to obtain data on the average price of a particular resource at a given time and place.\u0026nbsp;Fortunately,\u0026nbsp;G. West’s approach demonstrates that almost any feature that can be quantified exhibits a scalable relationship with size.\u003csup\u003e14\u003c/sup\u003e By applying “scaling law” proposed by G. West, it’s speculate that there is a common framework concept underlying highly disparate and complex phenomena.\u003csup\u003e15-17\u003c/sup\u003e This may explain why the learning curve for predicting prices bears a striking resemblance to the developed model in this work, a simple but highly policy-relevant function for predicting certain types of non-renewable resource. Thus, the same concept is utilized for the prediction of lithium resource. For a resource experiencing “explosive” growth in demand, it is necessary and meaningful to use short-term data to predict long-term behavior. It’s a great of urgency to determine whether the lithium resource in earth can meet the demand in energy transition from fossil fuels to electricity. Before 2016, the consumption of lithium resources mainly comes from portable electronic devices, medical industries, and non-ferrous metallurgy industries, remains at a relatively low and gradual consumption rate. By contrast, an explosive growth of EV and energy storage industries after 2016 induces a rapid consumption of lithium resources.\u003csup\u003e18, 19\u003c/sup\u003e The consumption of lithium resource after 2016 is chosen as the basic data in this study. Furthermore, based on the simulation of an “Moore’s Law” operational model, as shown in Fig.1a, the calculation result reveals that the reserve-to-production ratio (R/P) of lithium resources has dropped from 400 to ~ 100 in the past 8 years, and will continuously decline at a rate of 13.1% per year. According to this trend, R/P will be decreases to 10 at around 2042. Noteworthy, according to statistics, the R/P of oil is currently around 15 in China,\u003csup\u003e20, 21\u003c/sup\u003e which is higher than the value of lithium resource at around 2042, suggesting a scarcer situation of lithium resource is facing in the next 10 years. Moreover, the R/P will be further falling into 1 at around 2058, which implying the entrance into a state where proven reserves would be insufficient to meet the annual extraction demand. Less than 10 of the R/P for lithium resources is not only a change in data, but also a great challenge for global sustainable development. What’s more of a concern, the existing lithium reserves can only last less than 10 years of production. As the global demand for lithium continues to grow, particularly in driving the green energy transition, the tension of lithium resource supply will become a major bottleneck to hinder sustainable development and cause the global “lithium panic”. If stable lithium supply cannot be guaranteed, battery production will be significantly limited to affect the popularization of electric vehicles and the capability of energy storage systems, thereby slowing down the pace of global energy transformation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAt the same time, the shortage of lithium resources will force the adoption of new strategies in resource management and development, including increasing resource exploration efforts, improving recycling rates, seeking alternative materials and promoting technological innovation. These measures are not only to address the supply crisis, but also to ensure the sustainability of global economy and environment. In addition, the shortage of lithium resources may trigger geopolitical tensions, and countries may pay more attention to the strategic reserve of lithium resources, leading to increased competition in the international market. Thus, the less than 10 of R/P for at around 2042 marks the beginning of the lithium resource shortage, poses a serious challenge to global sustainable development. On the one hand, in recent decades, with the deepening of the theoretical understanding of shale gas, as well as the advancement and large-scale application of horizontal well multi-stage fracturing technology since 2000, the several technological upgrades and replacements further trigger a global “shale gas revolution”, simultaneous development of oil and gas (shale gas and shale oil) leads to the significant growth in production and “fast lane” of the industry.\u003csup\u003e22-24\u003c/sup\u003e As for lithium resources, like the case in shale gas, theoretical and technological innovations in various direct lithium extraction (DLE) for lithium mining, represented by lithium extraction from seawater or salt lakes, geothermal brines as potential secondary lithium resources may bring additional significant opportunities for alleviating the stress in lithium usage.\u003csup\u003e25-29\u003c/sup\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOn the other hands, although the lithium recycling technology developed and became a hot topic in the recent years, based on the current condition and the prediction results in Fig.1b, in every 10 years, the demands in lithium consumption will increase at nearly 12 times. In terms of the service lifetime of batteries, in general, the power batteries are about 5~8 years, the energy storage batteries are about 10~15 years.\u003csup\u003e30-33\u003c/sup\u003e Therefore, the average service time of energy storage batteries and power batteries is about 10 years, in the case of rapid growth in demand for lithium consumption, even if 100% of lithium can be recycled and reused, reused lithium amount during this period only accounts for about 9% of total lithium consumption requirement, which would be far from meeting the rapid growth of lithium demand, leading to serious bottleneck in lithium usage.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFurthermore, a more intuitive comparison is provided by analyzing the data of reserves and production as shown in Fig.1b. It’s revealed that the production and reserve lines with confidence intervals (Cl) of lithium resource will intersect at around 2058, the emergence of intersection point suggests the ultimate exploitation of resources is coming. Furthermore, it’s intriguing that the extraction is increasing at a rate of 27.8% per year, faster than a growing rate of 10.9% for annual reservation. The difference in growth further exacerbates the decline in the R/P ratio and emphasizes the necessities of taking action before the reaching of intersection. When the time range selected for the data is further extended to past 20 years (Fig.1c) and 30 years (Fig.1d), although the growing rates are slightly different, it can also be observed that the growing rates of extraction are obviously faster than those of annual reservation. The intersection points appearing at around 2058~2060 further indicate that the crisis of lithium resource depletion is imminent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e2. Impact of Lithium Resources on the Electrification of Global Transportation\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLithium plays a crucial role in the secondary battery revolution. By integrating the global EV sales and the average lithium consumption amount per EV, a clearer analysis of the lithium resource consumption rate can be obtained. It can be calculated that manufacturing a typical 3.4Ah 18650 battery requires 1.4 g of lithium, and producing a Tesla Model S requires nearly 8,000 individual batteries, which equals to approximately 11.5 kg of lithium.\u003csup\u003e34\u003c/sup\u003e In order to clarify the relationship between the growth rate of EV and the lithium consumption, based on the global sales volume and penetration ratio data of EV from 2016 to 2023,\u003csup\u003e35, 36\u003c/sup\u003e the learning curve is utilized to forecast the change trend until 2035 as shown in Fig.2a.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCalculation result reveals that global sales of EV grow at an annual rate of 51.3% since 2016, suggesting a sharply rise in demand for lithium. Using the data of 2016 as starting point, the relationship between annual consumption of lithium and global EV sales can be expressed as:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg width=\"200\" height=\"26\" src=\"data:image/wmf;base64,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\" alt=\"image\"\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;(2)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhere \u003cimg width=\"40\" height=\"25\" src=\"data:image/wmf;base64,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\" alt=\"image\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;and \u003cimg width=\"43\" height=\"25\" src=\"data:image/wmf;base64,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\" alt=\"image\"\u003e are the annual consumption of lithium and global EV sales at 2016, respectively. The formula shows that the annual lithium consumption can be estimated based on the increase in global EV sales, and provides a clearer relationship to understand the rapid growth demand for lithium driven by the EV market development. According to the world car ownership data per 1,000 people from World Health Organization (WHO), in this study, the average of top ten developed countries (the United States 863, Canada 665, Iceland 863, the United Kingdom 583, France 653, Germany 684, Finland 949, Norway 758, Sweden 615, Australia 753) are chosen as the upper limit standard,\u003csup\u003e37, 38\u003c/sup\u003e which estimated to be nearly 739 vehicles per 1000 people. If the world population is estimated at 9 billion, the total lithium consumption corresponding to the nearly 6.7 billion vehicles globally is 76 million tons, reaching this value corresponds to the fourth quarter at 2037. Meanwhile, the production amount in 2037 is calculated to be 71 million tons obtained from the production curve. The occurrence of this situation may be attributed to the recovery technology of LIB meets a substantial portion of the lithium resource demand or new alternatives such as sodium-ion batteries or fuel cells occupy a higher proportion in the application scenarios. Noteworthy, the annual growth rate of electric heavy-duty trucks in China has reached nearly 200% over the past two years, with the sales penetration rate reaching 14% in 2024 (82,700 vehicles sold). In the first quarter of 2025, the total sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks is 30,300 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 177% and a further rise in market penetration (from the statistical data provided by EV tank in 2025).\u003csup\u003e39\u003c/sup\u003e It is projected that this penetration rate will exceed 50% within the next 3~5 years, potentially driving significant lithium consumption. While global growth in EV sales is expected to be manageable on a per capita basis so far, incorporating the additional demand from energy storage and electric heavy-duty trucks will likely intensify pressure on lithium supply.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFurthermore, the relationship between annual installed capacity and time is investigated through statistical analysis, which can be expressed as following:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg width=\"167\" height=\"26\" src=\"data:image/wmf;base64,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\" alt=\"image\"\u003e\u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp;(3)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhere \u003cimg width=\"35\" height=\"25\" src=\"data:image/wmf;base64,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\" alt=\"image\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;is the annual installed capacity, \u003cimg width=\"40\" height=\"25\" src=\"data:image/wmf;base64,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\" alt=\"image\"\u003e is the fitting annual installed capacity at first year. As shown in Fig. 2b, the growth of installed capacity growth rate increases at a rate of 47.3%. Thus, the rapid growth of global EV sales and the installed capacity will jointly promote the sharp rise in demand for lithium consumption, and the positive correlation and synchronous growth between these two factors suggest the lithium consumption will increase in a higher rate in the future. Considering the current EV installed capacity is only account for 72% of the total in 2023 from the statistical data provided by EV tank,\u003csup\u003e5\u003c/sup\u003e the great development potential of the energy storage batteries may cause continuous decrease in the proportion of EV installed capacity. Therefore, the shortage of global lithium resources will emerge at 2042, it’s a great concern that the lithium resources will not be enough to support the demand of human society to complete the envisioned green electrification era.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn addition to the rapid growth of global installed capacity over time has a huge impact on the demand for lithium resources, the influences stemming from the advancements and replacements of battery systems cannot be ignored. Currently, as the demand for extended driving range of EVs and lifespan of energy storage systems continues to rise, the development of high energy-density batteries has attracted extensive attention both in academia and industry.\u003csup\u003e40-43\u003c/sup\u003e On the one hand, the development and application of high energy-density batteries significantly facilitates the human society, however, its negative impact on aggravating the stress of lithium utilization cannot be ignored. As show in Fig.2c, the slightly lower energy density of LFP batteries possess preferable cyclability, and lithium ion in cathode utilization efficiency (CUE) is estimated to be as high as 90%, while the higher energy-density nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA)-based batteries is only at a range of 60%~80% as the different content of nickel (detailed in Supporting information). All-solid state batteries as research frontier which have been gradually applied into the market to address the safety concern of tradition liquid batteries, the CUE drops to about 30% (detailed in Supporting information). In terms of the anodes, the CUE for the prelithiated silicon-oxide and micro-sized CVD-derived Si-C anodes are approximately 80% (detailed in Supporting information).\u003csup\u003e44\u003c/sup\u003e The higher demand for application of the high-capacity materials further drives the increase of integral lithium resource consumption by 50% to 100%, leading to a lithium resource crisis in 2037-2040.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e3. Geographical Distribution of Lithium Resources with Undeveloped Potential\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThrough the investigation of the global distribution of lithium resources, we further illustrate the great potential and necessity of developing DLE technologies to obtain high-grade battery-grade lithium compounds from low-quality brines. As shown in Fig.3, lithium-containing minerals and brines are distributed in a few countries, showing obvious geographical effects and posing challenges in terms of supply sustainability. Moreover, it’s worth noting that the undeveloped lithium content in seawater reaches ~230 billion tons, above 2000 times high than that of on total reserves in land and 5000 times greater than that of continental brines, which indicates the great potential of extracting lithium from seawater to alleviate the crisis of lithium resource supply in the future.\u003csup\u003e45, 46\u003c/sup\u003e However, the current DLE methods from seawater involve the evaporation of a large amount of water, which is time-consuming and unable to meet the rapidly growing demand for lithium consumption.\u003csup\u003e47\u003c/sup\u003e Moreover, they have raised serious concerns about the potential depletion of groundwater.\u003csup\u003e48\u003c/sup\u003e The recent developed rocking chair electrochemical process enables the rapid lithium extraction, nevertheless, the utilized anion-exchange membranes typically suffer from inferior ion selectivity, which induces severe ion backmixing and incompatibility with these low-quality brines.\u003csup\u003e49-51\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo effectively address the crisis of lithium depletion and explore innovative DLE methods especially from seawater, its huge untapped reserves may significantly alleviate supply concerns. The recently developed lithium extraction technologies from “low-quality brine” with a lithium concentration lower than 0.26g l\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e or a magnesium-lithium ratio (Mg/Li) higher than 6.15, have attracts great attentions.\u003csup\u003e45\u003c/sup\u003e The promotion of pre-concentration methods, the development of new precipitants with high selectivity, and the non pre-concentration DLE process with high selectivity,\u003csup\u003e52-55\u003c/sup\u003e will become important contributors to sustainable lithium production and usage in the future.\u003c/p\u003e\n\n\n\n\n"},{"header":"Conclusions and Outlook","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis study establishes an innovative learning curve model to quantitatively assess the depletion timeline of global lithium resources. Our integrated analysis, incorporating global EV sales, installed capacity, and R/P ratio of lithium dynamics, yields two critical predictions. First, the R/P ratio of lithium is projected to fall below 10 by approximately 2042, signaling severe supply constraints. Second, lithium reserves will be insufficient to meet annual demand (R/P \u0026lt; 1) by around 2058~2060, indicating fundamental resource exhaustion. Notably, the rapid adoption of high-energy-density battery systems (e.g., NCM/NCA cathodes, Si-based anodes, and SSBs), which exhibit low CUE, could advance the shortage timeline to 2037~2040. Even with ideal 100% lithium recycling, the 10-year service life of dominant applications (EV and energy storage batteries) limits recycled lithium to merely ~9% of total demand, which grossly inadequate to offset consumption growth. These findings underscore an urgent, unaddressed bottleneck in the global energy transition.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo avert a lithium-driven crisis, we propose three critical pathways as following:\u003c/p\u003e\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAlternative Energy Technologies:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eAccelerate development of non-lithium solutions (e.g., sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen energy, and advanced recycling) before 2042 to diversify the energy storage portfolio and reduce lithium dependence. Global policy mandates for lithium recycling quotas are essential to secure secondary supply chains.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eInnovative Extraction Methods:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eEmulate the “shale gas revolution” by advancing DLE technologies. Breakthroughs in selectivity, efficiency, and environmental sustainability, particularly for sources with from low-quality brines/seawater ([Li⁺] \u0026lt; 0.26 g·L⁻¹ or Mg/Li \u0026gt; 6.15), could unlock vast untapped reserves.\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eDeveloping new lithium metallogenic\u0026nbsp;theories may present feasible opportunities to alleviate the pressure on lithium usage.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGlobal Resource Governance:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eEstablish\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003einternational frameworks such as coordinated exploration in underdeveloped regions, standardized cross-border recycling protocols, and transparent reserve sharing mechanisms is helpful to address geopolitical risks from uneven lithium distribution.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis work provides a quantitative foundation for policymakers and industry stakeholders to redefine lithium resource strategies. Immediate action is imperative to ensure the sustainable electrification of our energy future.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAcknowledgements\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe would like to thank the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (22209095, 22278238, 22208186, 22238004), Beijing Nova Program (2022118), Key Research and Development Program of Inner Mongolia and Ordos, Ordos-Tsinghua Innovative \u0026amp; Collaborative Research Program in Carbon Neutrality and Ordos Laboratory.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor contributions\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eProf. Fei Wei conceived the ideas and coordinated the work. Prof. Fei Wei, Prof. Chenxi Zhang, and Prof. Zhexi Xiao provided the methodology. Zewei Zou and Prof. Zhexi Xiao conducted the validation and formal analysis. Zewei Zou, Prof. Zhexi Xiao, Zhenkang Lin and Bingchen Zhang performed the investigation of data. Zewei Zou performed the original draft of manuscript. Zewei Zou, Prof. Zhexi Xiao, Prof. Fei Wei, Prof. Chenxi Zhang, and Prof. Guo Tian contributed to the review and editing. Prof. Fei Wei, Prof. Chenxi Zhang, and Prof. Zhexi Xiao carried out the supervision and project administration.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDeclaration of interests\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors declare no competing interests.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eC. Costa, E. Wollenberg, M. Benitez, R. Newman, N. Gardner and F. Bellone, \u003cem\u003eSci. Rep.\u003c/em\u003e, 2022, \u003cstrong\u003e12\u003c/strong\u003e, 15064.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eJ. Rogelj, O. Geden, A. Cowie and A. 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Ed.\u003c/em\u003e, 2024, \u003cstrong\u003e63\u003c/strong\u003e, e202411957.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"lithium resource depletion, learning curve model, reserve-to-production ratio, cathode utilization efficiency, sustainable energy transition","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6962776/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6962776/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Lithium resource depletion poses a critical bottleneck to global electrification. Here, we develop an innovative learning curve model incorporating the reserve-to-production (R/P) ratio dynamics and learning rate (α) to quantitatively predict lithium depletion timelines. Our analysis reveals global lithium reserves face imminent shortage (R/P \u003c 10) by 2042, followed by near-total depletion (R/P \u003c 1) by 2058, validated through integrated global EV sales and installed capacity data. The rapid adoption of high-energy-density systems (e.g., NCM/NCA cathodes, Si-based anodes all-solid-state batteries), with insufficient cathode utilization efficiencies, could advance the shortage to 2037~2040. Even with 100% recycling, the 10-year service life of dominant applications (power and energy storage batteries) limits recycled lithium to ≤9% of total demand, insufficient to offset consumption growth. To address this crisis, we propose strategy-focused solutions: advancing direct lithium extraction from low-quality brines, accelerating non-lithium alternatives, and establishing global resource-sharing frameworks. This work provides actionable insights for policy-making and sustainable resource management in the energy transition era.","manuscriptTitle":"A Critical Bottleneck in Energy Transition: Quantitative Predictions and Potential Strategies for Lithium Resource Depletion","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-30 08:04:18","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6962776/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"60d61ea2-b12b-40eb-a327-adf017a40b78","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 30th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":50708686,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling"},{"id":50708687,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-20T15:20:47+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-30 08:04:18","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6962776","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6962776","identity":"rs-6962776","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}