Unraveling tropical Indian Ocean influences on El Niño-driven Northwest Pacific anomalous anticyclone projections under global warming

Unraveling tropical Indian Ocean influences on El Niño-driven Northwest Pacific anomalous anticyclone projections under global warming | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Unraveling tropical Indian Ocean influences on El Niño-driven Northwest Pacific anomalous anticyclone projections under global warming Wenping Jiang, Wenping Jiang, Ping Huang, Jin-Yi Yu, Xiangzhou Song, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6883441/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Summer climate over East Asia is strongly influenced by the Northwest Pacific anomalous anticyclone (NWPAC) associated with El Niño events. Understanding how this anticyclone responds to global warming is key to predicting future climate risks such as floods and heatwaves. However, current climate models exhibit substantial uncertainty in their projections. This study reveals that a major source of this uncertainty stems from how models simulate changes in climatological atmospheric circulations over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). These circulations modulate a series of air-sea interactions in the TIO, which in turn shape the response of the NWPAC during El Niño decay summers under global warming. Models projecting a stronger weakening of climatological TIO circulations tend to project a stronger NWPAC, while those with weaker changes project a weaker NWPAC. These findings reveal that how well we project Indian Ocean states crucially affects the reliability of future summer climate projections in East Asia. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files NCManuscriptNWPACprojections.SI.pdf SupplymentaryInfo_NWPAC_projections Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6883441","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":470760552,"identity":"dc5a2864-da62-45b2-86b8-0b2ea1f77ebb","order_by":0,"name":"Wenping 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