Abstract
Background: Repeated serosurveys in the same population provide more accurate
estimates of the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 infection and more comparable data than
notified cases. We aimed to estimate the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, identify
associated risk factors, and assess time trends in the ratio of serological/molecular
diagnosis in a cohort of university workers.
Methods
Participants had a serological rapid test for SARS-CoV-2 Immunoglobulins
M and G, and completed a questionnaire, in May-July 2020 (n=3628) and November
2020–January 2021 (n=2661); 1960 participated in both evaluations and provided data
to compute the incidence proportion and the incident rate. Crude and adjusted incidence
rate ratios (aIRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed using generalised
linear models with Poisson regression.
Results
The incidence rate was 1.8/100 person-month (95%CI 1.6-2.1), and the 6
months’ cumulative incidence was 10.7%. The serological/molecular diagnosis ratio
was 10:1 in the first evaluation and 3:1 in the second. Considering newly identified
seropositive cases at the first (n=69) and second evaluation (n=202), 29.0% and 9.4%
never reported symptoms, respectively, 14.5% and 33.3% reported contact with a
confirmed case and 82.6%, and 46.0% never had a molecular test. Males (aIRR: 0.59;
95%CI: 0.42-0.83) and “high-skilled white-collar” workers (aIRR: 0.73, 95%CI: 0.52-
1.02) had lower incidence of infection.
Conclusion
University workers presented a high SARS-CoV-2
incidence while
restrictive measures were in place. The time decrease in the proportion of undiagnosed
cases reflected the increased access to testing, but opportunities continued to be missed,
even in the presence of COVID-19 like symptoms.
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Keywords
COVID-19; high education; seroepidemiology; serological test
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Introduction
During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, repeated serological tests
in the same population are recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) (1).
It allows a better characterization of the evolution of the severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and the dynamics of seroconversion,
either due to past infection or vaccination. Repeated serosurveys in the same population
provide a more accurate estimate of the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection and more
comparable data over time than just notified cases, which are dependent on case
definition, testing capacity, and testing criteria in place (2). Several seroprevalence
studies have demonstrated that the extent of the infection is much larger than based on
molecular diagnosis (3-9). A study estimated the median ratio of seroprevalence to
cumulative incidence to be approximately 18 (9). However, repeated serosurveys in the
same population cohort are uncommon, essentially encompassing recovered patients
and healthcare workers (10-12). Moreover, few studies addressed higher education
workers - mainly assessed using cross-sectional serosurveys early in the pandemic (13-
16).
In Portugal, the first case of COVID-19 was diagnosed on March 2, 2020. The first
national serological survey (ISN COVID-19), conducted between May and July 2020 in
a sample of 2301 inhabitants provided a seroprevalence of 2.9% (4) and a second one,
conducted from February to March 2021, estimated a 13.5% prevalence, excluding
those already vaccinated (17).
While there were no preventive pharmaceutical measures available, mitigation strategies
were based on physical distance, facial masks, or handwashing measures and have led
to the closure of schools around the world in an unprecedented disruption to global
education systems. In Portugal, schools at all levels were closed on March 16, 2020, and
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remote working was mandatory from March 18 to June 30, 2020. Schools reopened at
the start of the 2020/2021 academic year, mid-September 2020, up to mid-January
2021. An initial seroprevalence study of 4592 workers of all public higher education
institutions of Porto was conducted between May and July 2020 and captured the
seroprevalence when lockdown measures were eased (15). A follow-up seroprevalence
study – from November 2020 to January 2021 - among workers from the University of
Porto (U.Porto) was conducted to capture the evolution of the infection in this
community. In this study, we aimed to estimate the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection
in a non-vaccinated group, to identify factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 incidence,
and the time trends in the ratio between serological evidence and a reported molecular
diagnosis.
Methods
All the workers of the U.Porto were invited to participate in two serological surveys
using a point of care test for SARS-CoV-2 specific IgM and IgG antibodies. The first
evaluation occurred from May 21 to July 31, 2020, and the second from November 27,
2020, to January 29, 2021. Participation was voluntary, and scheduling was initiated by
the workers. The first evaluation is described in detail elsewhere (15).
In both evaluations data were collected by trained researchers, using a structured
questionnaire including information on sex, age, nationality, comorbidities (defined as
having a disease that requires regular medical care e.g. treatments, appointments, etc.),
the highest level of education completed, profession (categorized in occupation
classification and dichotomized in "high-skilled white-collar": yes or no), remote
working at the time of testing, county of residence [classified according to the
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Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics Level 3 (NUTS 3) and aggregated in
Metropolitan area of Porto (MAP) and Outside MAP], and self-perceived probability of
having been infected. Also included infection related questions: contact with a
confirmed SARS-CoV-2 case and quarantine, symptoms since the beginning of 2020
(categorized into asymptomatic; paucisymptomatic: one or two of the following
symptoms: cough, dyspnea, odynophagia, headache, vomiting, or nausea, diarrhea,
asthenia, or fever; and symptomatic: at least three of the listed symptoms, or dysgeusia
or anosmia) and previous SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic tests and diagnosis.
Participants provided written informed consent to all procedures. The study protocol
was approved by the ethics committee of the Institute of Public Health of the University
of Porto (ID 20154) and all procedures complied with the principles embodied in the
Declaration of Helsinki.
SARS-CoV-2 specific IgM and IgG antibodies determination and follow-up
During the first evaluation two point-of-care tests were used – the STANDARD Q
COVID-19 IgM/IgG Duo used from May 21 to July 9, n=3040 (manufacturer reported
sensitivity of 92.6% eight days after symptom onset and specificity of 96.5% for both
IgG and IgM); and the STANDARD Q COVID-19 IgM/IgG Combo from July 10 to
July 31, n=588 (manufacturer reported sensitivity of 94.5% seven or more days after
symptom onset and specificity of 95.7% for both IgG and IgM). In the second
evaluation, only the STANDARD Q COVID-19 IgM/IgG Combo was used (n=2661).
Statistical analysis
An incident case was defined as having a reactive result either for IgM or IgG in the
second evaluation, among those who participated in both evaluations and were
seronegative in the first. To calculate the incident rate, time at risk was computed as the
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time in months between the two serological tests in case of seronegative individuals, for
the incident cases without a previous diagnosis we considered half time between the two
tests, and for those with a molecular diagnosis, we considered the time between the first
serological test and the date of molecular diagnosis. Associations were described using
crude and adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and respective 95% confidence intervals
(CI), adjustments were made for sex, age (continuous), nationality, and occupation
classification computed using generalised linear models with Poisson regression, with
the default log link and offset in the variable time at risk. A bilateral significance level
of 5% was considered. Analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics for
Windows, Version 27.0. Armonk, NY: IBM Corp.
Results
In total, 4329 individuals participated in the serosurveys: 3628 in the first evaluation
and 2661 in the second; 1960 of those participated in both. The seroprevalence of
SARS-CoV-2 infection increased from 4.1% (150/3628) in the first evaluation to 13.2%
(350/2661) in the second; based on a reported previous molecular diagnosis the
prevalence of the infection increased from 0.4% (16/3628) to 4.4% (118/2661),
respectively. The ratio of workers who were seropositive to those with a previous
molecular diagnosis was 10 to 1 in the first evaluation and 3 to 1 in the second.
Considering the 1960 workers who participated in both evaluations, 271 (13.8%) were
ever seropositive, 69 (3.5%) were seropositive in the first and 251 (12.8%) were
seropositive in the second evaluation (Table S1). Of the 1891 workers that participated
in both evaluations and were seronegative at the first, 202 (10.7%) became seropositive
– incident cases – over 11,222 person-months of observation. The overall incidence rate
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(IR) was 1.8 per 100 person-months (95%CI: 1.6-2.1). Additionally, among the 69
seropositive (IgM and/or IgG) cases identified in the first evaluation 20 (29.0%) were
seronegative in the second, and of the 18 IgG-only reactive at the first evaluation, 7
(38.9%) were IgM and IgG reactive at the second; the detailed results according to the
class of antibodies are presented in Table S1. Of the 1960 workers, 77 (3.9%) ever
reported a positive molecular diagnosis. Of the 1940 workers without a positive RT-
PCR at first evaluation, 70 (3.6%) had a molecular diagnosis during the follow-up
period.
The distribution of incident cases is presented in Table 1. Males (aIRR: 0.59, 95%CI:
0.42-0.83) and workers classified as “high-skilled white-collar” (aIRR: 0.73, 95%CI:
0.52-1.02) were at lower risk of infection. Also, it is worth mentioning that those with
basic education and living in the Porto metropolitan area had a 42% and 58% increase
in incidence, respectively, thought CI included the unit. Age strata, nationality,
comorbidities, remote working at the time of the evaluation, or the self-perceived
probability of infection were not significantly associated with the risk of infection.
Table 2 shows the clinical and infection-related characteristics of workers that were
seropositive at the first evaluation (n=69) and newly seropositive at the second (n=202).
In brief, 82.6% and 46.0% never had a molecular test, respectively. From a clinical
perspective, 29.0% and 9.4% were asymptomatic; 14.5% and 33.3% reported a known
contact with a case and, of those, 60.0% and 69.2% were quarantined, respectively.
Discussion
In this cohort of university workers, the incidence rate was 1.8 infections per 100
person-months, and the 6 months’ cumulative incidence was 10.7%. The frequency of
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infection was higher based on seropositivity than molecular diagnosis, similarly to what
has been described in most seroprevalence studies (3-9). However, the ratio
serological/molecular diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection markedly decreased with
time, from 10:1 in the first evaluation to 3:1 in the second. This difference might be due
to the increasing capacity of testing over the epidemic, as the proportion of individuals
that were seropositive and never had a molecular test decreased from 82.6% at the first
evaluation to 46.0% at the second evaluation. Similarly, the second round of the ISN
COVID-19 also found a lower ratio between seropositivity and reported molecular
diagnosis than during the first round (17). However, these differences might be
overestimated due to the lower frequency of infection over the first months of the
epidemic (18).
These results stress that we miss many infections making public health efforts less
efficient. The differences in seroprevalence and cumulative incidence were thought to
be mainly due to asymptomatic infections, however, in our study, most of those who
were seropositive without a previous molecular diagnosis were classified as pauci- or
symptomatic considering the reported symptoms, and this is in accordance with an
earlier study (3). Moreover, most of them did not report a known contact with a
confirmed case, then they were not likely missed by the contact tracing system.
Similarly, in the Liverpool population-wide asymptomatic rapid antigen testing
program, testing uptake was lower among populations with higher positivity (19) and
another study showed that undetected infections were more frequent among those lower
educated (20). Efforts must be done to identify and address the barriers to test-trace-
isolate, particularly when COVID-19 like symptoms are present.
As previously shown less educated and less skilled workers were more likely to be
seropositive and to get infected during the observation period (20-22), although our
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participants had an average high level of education and worked in a favoured context,
those less educated and lower-skilled were still at higher risk of infection. However, we
were not able to assess if less educated or less skilled workers were more likely infected
due to overall social disadvantages, occupational exposure, household exposure, or
because preventive messages were not conveyed considering the different literacy levels
of the target population.
We found lower seroprevalence among those who live outside the metropolitan area,
mostly in lower density populations, in accordance with findings of the nationwide
seroepidemiological study conducted in Spain, with higher seroprevalence in more
populated municipalities (6). We fo und a higher incidence among females, contrasting
to the ISNCOVID-19 results and the population-based study in Geneva (4, 5), while no
differences were found in Spain (6) and the Netherlands (8). In our sample, females had
more frequently lower-skilled occupations and lower education. The Geneva study
found a lower risk of being seropositive among those aged 65 years or more compared
to those aged 20-49 years (5, 23). We found no statistically significant differences
according to age, probably reflecting the homogeneity of the population studied, mostly
higher educated and still working participants.
Although we have no data on workers affiliated at U.Porto whose salary comes from
external financing sources we do have data on those hired by U.Porto and their
distribution based on sociodemographic characteristics is similar to the observed in our
sample. By the end of December 2020, there were 4798 workers, 2584 (54%) were
females, 2238 (46.6%) had a Ph.D., 1894 (39.5%) a bachelor or master’s degree, 450
(9.4%) secondary education, and 216 (4.5%) basic education (24).
We found that 42.9% of the workers were IgM-only reactive at the two serosurveys,
suggesting that they remained with detectable levels of IgM over the mean six months
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of follow-up, at least. Although the levels of IgM appear to decay 4-5 weeks after
symptom onset, some patients remain positive at least 3 months after (25-27). However,
it is not clear if they developed IgG or if they developed in undetectable amounts or
either for a short period. We cannot fully explain why 38.9% of the workers who were
IgG-only reactive in first were IgG and IgM reactive in the second evaluation, it may be
either due to false negative or false positive results, once that the IgM usually peaks
earlier (27).
This study has some limitations, as workers were self-selected, and the invitation was
sent by e-mail. We sought symptoms, contacts, and episodes of quarantine since
January 2020; they all were self-reported, but these questions are not expected to be
prone to social desirability. However, as SARS-CoV-2 infection symptoms are
unspecific they may be prone to recall bias. We completed the questionnaire before
sharing the serological results with the participants, to avoid contamination by the rapid
test result. This study is one of the few internationally focusing on higher education
workers, a work environment where infection awareness is expected to be very high,
and one of the few with a longitudinal approach.
To conclude, we found that university workers, in Porto, presented a high incidence rate
of infection during a period of restrictive measures (2 infections per 100 person-month
and a 6 months’ cumulative incidence of 10.7%), with the incidence being lower in
males and “high-skilled white-collar” workers. The frequency of infection based on the
serological tests was much higher than based on molecular diagnosis data, although it
decreased over time reflecting wider access to testing. Nonetheless, these results stress
that we still miss opportunities to test-trace-isolate persons with the infection,
particularly those with symptoms but no known contacts, even in a work environment
where infection awareness is expected to be very high.
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Author contributions: JPC participated in the study design, wrote the draft of the
manuscript, and performed data analysis. PM and HB designed the study and provided
guidance for data analysis and interpretation of results. PM, PNSR, and HB critically
reviewed the draft. All authors revised and approved the final version of the manuscript
for submission.
Acknowledgements
We wish to acknowledge the team of researchers in the field. IT
support from Paulo Oliveira. The health professionals from the Occupational Service,
Infectious Diseases Service, and the Clinical Pathology Service from University
Hospital Center São João. This study was funded by the University of Porto and
supported by national funds of Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), under the
scope of the project UIDB/04750/2020 - Research Unit of Epidemiology–Institute of
Public Health of the University of Porto (EPIUnit
). JPC is the recipient of a Ph.D. grant
(DFA/BD/8562/2020) co-funded by the national funds of FCT and the Fundo Social
Europeu (FSE). Authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Data Availability Statement: The dataset analysed during the current study is available
on reasonable request to the study coordinator (PM,
[email protected]).
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Table 1. Description of the 1891 participants who took part in both evaluations and were seronegative at the first, distribution of incident cases,
and factors associated with the incidence of SARS-CoV-2.
Total Incident cases a, b IR per 100 person-months
(95%CI)
IRR
(95%CI)
aIRR c
(95%CI) n (%)
Overall 1891 202 (10.7) 1.8 (1.6-2.1)
Sex
Female 1262 (66.8) 155 (12.3) 2.1 (1.8-2.4) ref. ref.
Male 626 (33.1) 46 (7.4) 1.2 (0.9-1.6) 0.60 (0.43-0.83) 0.59 (0.42-0.83)
missing 3 (0.2)
Age strata (years)
<30 146 (7.7) 15 (10.3) 1.8 (1.1-3.0) ref. ref.
30-39 464 (24.5) 45 (9.7) 1.6 (1.2-2.2) 0.90 (0.50-1.62) 0.87 (0.48-1.57)
40-49 659 (34.8) 66 (10.0) 1.6 (1.3-2.1) 0.92 (0.52-1.61) 0.93 (0.53-1.63)
50-59 394 (20.8) 51 (12.9) 2.2 (1.7-2.9) 1.21 (0.68-2.15) 1.20 (0.67-2.15)
≥ 60 226 (12.0) 24 (10.6) 1.8 (1.2-2.6) 0.92 (0.52-1.87) 1.00 (0.52-1.92)
missing 2 (0.1)
Nationality
Portuguese 1824 (96.4) 192 (10.5) 1.8 (1.5-2.0) ref. ref.
Non-Portuguese 65 (3.4) 8 (12.3) 2.1 (1.1-4.3) 1.22 (0.60-2.47) 1.38 (0.67-2.80)
missing 2 (0.1)
Comorbidities d
No 1141 (60.3) 117 (10.3) 1.7 (1.5-2.1) ref. ref.
Yes 746 (39.5) 84 (11.3) 1.8 (1.5-2.3) 1.06 (0.80-1.41) 1.00 (0.74-1.34)
missing 4 (0.2
Educational level
Doctorate 813 (43.0) 83 (10.2) 1.7 (1.4-2.1) ref. ref.
Bachelor’s or master’s degree 797 (42.1) 81 (10.2) 1.7 (1.4-2.1) 1.00 (0.73-1.36) 1.01 (0.73-1.40)
Secondary or post-secondary 187 (9.9) 22 (11.8) 1.9 (1.3-3.0) 1.14 (0.71-1.83) 1.10 (0.68-1.76)
Basic 93 (4.9) 15 (16.1) 2.6 (1.6-4.4) 1.55 (0.89-2.68) 1.42 (0.81-2.48)
missing 1 (0.1)
High-skilled white-collar
No 305 (16.1) 44 (14.4) 2.5 (1.8-3.2) ref. ref.
Yes 1579 (83.5) 156 (9.9) 1.6 (1.4-1.9) 0.69 (0.49-0.96) 0.73 (0.52-1.02)
missing 7 (0.4)
Remote working at the time of the second evaluation
No 763 (40.3) 91 (11.9) 2.0 (1.6-2.5) ref. ref.
Yes, part-time 881 (46.6) 83 (9.4) 1.6 (1.3-1.9) 0.77 (0.57-1.04) 0.78 (0.57-1.05)
Yes, full-time 224 (11.8) 22 (9.8) 1.6 (1.0-2.4) 0.77 (0.48-1.24) 0.82 (0.51-1.33)
Does not apply e 21 (1.1) 4 (19.0) 3.5 (1.3-9.4) 1.74 (0.64-4.73) 1.65 (0.60-4.53)
missing 2 (0.1)
Area of residence (NUTS 3)
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Outside MAP f 142 (7.5) 9 (6.3) 1.1 (0.6-2.0) ref. ref.
MAP 1748 (92.4) 193 (11.0) 1.8 (1.6-2.1) 1.74 (0.89-3.39) 1.58 (0.80-3.11)
missing 1 (0.1)
Self-perceived probability of infection (n=1822) (n=135)
Very low or low 1192 (65.4) 84 (7.0) 1.2 (1.0-1.5) ref. ref.
Moderate 527 (28.9) 41 (7.8) 1.3 (1.0-1.8) 1.10 (0.76-1.60) 1.14 (0.78-1.66)
High or very high 103 (5.7) 10 (9.7) 1.6 (0.9-3.1) 1.39 (0.72-2.68) 1.45 (0.75-2.80)
aIRR, adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio; CI, Confidence Interval; IR, Incidence Rate; IRR, Incidence Rate Ratio; MAP, Metropolitan area of Porto; NUTS 3, Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics Level 3.
a Incident cases were defined as having a positive result in the second evaluation after having a negative in the first, among those who participated in both evaluations;
b Cases may not sum up 202 due to missing data;
c Adjusted for sex, age (continuous), nationality, and occupation classification; Education level was not adjusted for occupati on;
d Comorbidities were defined as having a disease that requires regular medical care (e.g. treatments, appointments, etc);
e Does not apply, means being in parental, sabbatical, or sick leave;
f Outside MAP: participants’ residence in Cávado, Aveiro Region, Tâmega and Sousa, Alto Minho, Alto Tâmega, Metropolitan Area o f Lisbon, Douro, Coimbra Region and Viseu Dão Lafões;
*Fisher exact test.
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17
Table 2. Clinical and infection-related characteristics of workers that were seropositive
in the first evaluation (n=69) and newly seropositive at the second (n=202).
Seropositive in the first
evaluation
n=69
Newly seropositive in the
second evaluation
n=202
n (%) n (%)
Previous molecular test and diagnosis
Never had a molecular test 57 (82.6) 93 (46.0)
Had a molecular test, it was
negative
7 (10.1) 42 (20.8)
Had a molecular diagnosis 5 (7.2) 67 (33.2)
Symptomatology
Asymptomatic 20 (29.0) 19 (9.4)
Paucisymptomatic 28 (40.6) 58 (28.7)
Symptomatic 21 (30.4) 125 (61.9)
Known contact with a case
No 59 (85.5) 134 (66.7)
Yes 10 (14.5) 67 (33.3)
Quarantine among those who reported a known contact
No 4 (40.0) 20 (30.8)
Yes 6 (60.0) 45 (69.2)
The cases may not sum up 69 and 202, respectively, due to missing data;
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