Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution and drivers of agricultural carbon emissions - Evidence from provincial-level regions of China

Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution and drivers of agricultural carbon emissions - Evidence from provincial-level regions of China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution and drivers of agricultural carbon emissions - Evidence from provincial-level regions of China zhihui Yuan, Rong Wu, Wenting Fang, Yuxin Liu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6656035/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In this study, we examine the spatial distribution of carbon emissions from agricultural activities across China’s 31 provinces from 2000 to 2020. By utilizing analytical tools like the standard deviation ellipse, Gini coefficient, and kernel density estimation to investigate emission patterns, a spatial Durbin model is used to explore the key drivers behind variations in agricultural carbon emissions. It is confirmed that carbon emission from agriculture in China tends to rise and decline, with an overall decreasing trend. The spatial pattern of these emissions primarily follows a “Northeast-Southwest” orientation, exhibiting notable spatial disparities, particularly with a larger gap in the eastern region and a larger relative contrast between the eastern and western parts. Various factors affect these emissions, such as the economic output of the primary industry, the total capacity of agricultural machinery, the amount of fertilizer applied, rural electricity consumption, the sowing area of crops, and other factors, of which the increase in the economic contribution of the primary industry will inhibit agricultural carbon emissions. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental economics Agricultural carbon emissions Spatial Durbin model Standard deviation ellipse Kernel density estimation China Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 15 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 12 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Jul, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Jun, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 26 Jun, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 21 Jun, 2025 Editor invited by journal 30 May, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 21 May, 2025 First submitted to journal 21 May, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6656035","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":477129836,"identity":"01846520-becd-41b0-89f6-47a327cca5dd","order_by":0,"name":"zhihui Yuan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAy0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCTBpA+HwkKAljXQth0nQIj+7x0zi547zdvNnJDA+eNvGIG9OSAvjnDNmkr1nbic3zkhgNpzbxmC4s4GAFmaJHDMJ3rbbycwSCWzSvG0MCQYHCGhhA2qR/Nt2LplNIoH9N1FaeIBagIYfsOMB2sJMlBYJibRia9m25AQJnofNknPOSRhuIKRFfkbyxptv2+zs5duTD354U2YjT9AWBgYOAxCZ2MDA2MAAiyYCgP0BiLQnRukoGAWjYBSMUAAALwo4Jq9hK6wAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Guizhou University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"zhihui","middleName":"","lastName":"Yuan","suffix":""},{"id":477129837,"identity":"2670b5f0-b36c-421b-8c61-92f8cac4de71","order_by":1,"name":"Rong Wu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guizhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rong","middleName":"","lastName":"Wu","suffix":""},{"id":477129838,"identity":"344e152a-5ba3-46c3-8431-d54380e0641f","order_by":2,"name":"Wenting Fang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guizhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wenting","middleName":"","lastName":"Fang","suffix":""},{"id":477129839,"identity":"36317633-3cd0-4c52-a9f4-d1a993560f79","order_by":3,"name":"Yuxin Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guizhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuxin","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-13 13:38:21","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6656035/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6656035/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-29060-9","type":"published","date":"2026-01-07T15:57:29+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100069098,"identity":"68522d17-e921-4b8b-bda6-2d90d3704192","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-12 16:09:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":878578,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6656035/v1_covered_b4c21e8d-e425-4590-81ce-334536d433ef.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution and drivers of agricultural carbon emissions - Evidence from provincial-level regions of China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Agricultural carbon emissions, Spatial Durbin model, Standard deviation ellipse, Kernel density estimation, China","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6656035/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6656035/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn this study, we examine the spatial distribution of carbon emissions from agricultural activities across China\u0026rsquo;s 31 provinces from 2000 to 2020. 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