Resilience and Flexibility under Uncertainty in Space System Design

Resilience and Flexibility under Uncertainty in Space System Design | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Resilience and Flexibility under Uncertainty in Space System Design Reem Senan, Muneera Almalki This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8630101/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The increasing demand for space missions necessitates the development of space systems characterized by resilience, robustness, flexibility, and reliability. These qualities are critical during the conceptual design phase, especially given the substantial costs and extended timelines associated with designing, building, and launching space systems. Uncertainties, including evolving mission requirements and market fluctuations, can significantly impact schedule, mission performance and success, and lifecycle costs driving design changes, budget overruns, schedule extension, and the need for ongoing maintenance and upgrades. Incorporating these uncertainties into the design process is essential to effectively meet mission objectives. This paper will examine six existing frameworks and design architectures and propose a new framework that improves decision-making and fosters the development of resilient and flexible space systems under uncertainties. The proposed framework integrates key strengths of the examined frameworks while addressing their limitations. It enhances resilience and flexibility by defining clear system boundaries, incorporating probabilistic models for uncertainty, and facilitating multidisciplinary collaboration. Emphasizing robust uncertainty management and adaptive design updates, the framework ensures that designed systems can effectively respond to the complexities of space missions. The framework optimizes design configurations and allows for real-time adaptations based on new information. Its generalized approach makes it applicable to various space missions. The framework aims to improve space mission design process, enable continuous adaptability throughout the mission lifecycle, provides an effective integration of uncertainties into the design process, and contributes to the existing literature while promoting further research in the vital field of space system design. Flexibility Space Systems Resilience Uncertainty Space Architecture Design Framework Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 06 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 20 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 09 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 09 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 08 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 18 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8630101","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":588919504,"identity":"f044199f-3d48-4cb3-89fb-31f47b074b88","order_by":0,"name":"Reem Senan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAw0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHAD5mMgMsGABC1saSRr4TEjTot5e/PRDQx/bPL4Z/d8e/ijhiHPnJAWmTPH0m4wtqUVS9w5u92Y5xhDsWUDAS0SEjlmNxgbDic23MjdJs3AxpC44QAhLfLvv91g+PM/cf6NnGeSP/4Ro0WCh+0GA9uBxA03ctgkeNuI0cKTZnYjsS05ceONNHNj3j6JYgOCWtgPP7vx4Y9d4rwbyc8e/vhmk0dQCxgkIBlBjPpRMApGwSgYBYQAAA3vRIjIeI7dAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Bahrain Space Agency","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Reem","middleName":"","lastName":"Senan","suffix":""},{"id":588919505,"identity":"dc2147f7-784a-4777-a13e-7a4279c61b3c","order_by":1,"name":"Muneera Almalki","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bahrain Space Agency","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muneera","middleName":"","lastName":"Almalki","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-18 08:38:28","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8630101/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8630101/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102746141,"identity":"bdce1dab-9418-4594-8c79-e3320abbd828","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-16 08:55:50","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":896821,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ResilienceandFlexibilityunderUncertaintyinSpaceSystemDesign.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8630101/v1_covered_8948b1d0-a1d0-4f43-9345-64450751ed96.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Resilience and Flexibility under Uncertainty in Space System Design","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"aerotecnica-missili-and-spazio","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"atms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Aerotecnica Missili \u0026 Spazio](http://link.springer.com/journal/42496)","snPcode":"42496","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/42496/3","title":"Aerotecnica Missili \u0026 Spazio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Flexibility, Space Systems, Resilience, Uncertainty, Space Architecture Design, Framework","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8630101/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8630101/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe increasing demand for space missions necessitates the development of space systems characterized by resilience, robustness, flexibility, and reliability. 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