Predictors of cardiovascular events in elderly with metabolic syndrome from rural Northeast China

Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS) had close relationship with cardiovascular events (CVEs). In the present study, among elderly with MetS, we intend to estimate the possible predictors of CVEs in order to prevent cardiovascular complications; among elderly without MetS, we aim to evaluate the possible risk factors for developing MetS in order to control it more effectively. Methods In total 2869 elderly from rural China were enrolled. They took part in a physical examination and completed a questionnaire during 2012–2013 and were followed up during 2015–2017. Cox proportional hazards analysis was conducted to assess the possible predictors of CVEs and multivariate analysis was used to estimate the risk factors of newly diagnosed MetS. Results Over a median follow-up of 4.66 years, 128 nonfatal or fatal cardiovascular events were documented and the cumulative incidence of MetS was 28.7% (36.3% for female; 24.3% for male). Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that family history of hypertension [Hazard ratio (HR): 1.694], current smoking (HR: 1.518), per 1 unit increase of systolic blood pressure (SBP) (HR: 1.016), and HDL-C (HR: 0.365) were strong predictors of newly onset CVEs among elderly with MetS at baseline. As for newly diagnosed MetS, male [Odd ratio (OR): 0.390] and proper sleep duration (8–9 hours/day) (OR: 0.580) served as protective factors. Furthermore, SBP (OR: 1.013), body mass index (OR: 1.178) and all lipid profiles were also associated factors of newly diagnosed MetS among elderly. Conclusions Current smoking and relatively higher value of SBP, and HDL-C at baseline were correlated with higher possibility to have CVEs among elderly with MetS. In order not to develop MetS, elderly should pay more attention to metabolic parameters and have proper sleep duration.