Analyzing and prediction of rainfall trends over Baghdad city

Rainfall is a key part of the hydrological cycle and alteration of its pattern directly affects the water resources. The changing pattern of rainfall in consequence of climate change is now concerning issues to water resource managers and hydrologists. The present study aims to analyze the trend and forecast annual rainfall in Baghdad. rainfall data for the period of 1979-2019 was analyzed in this study, Statistical trend analysis techniques namely linear and Exponential trend were used to examine and analyze the problem. The result shows that rainfall will decrease in both methods but the liner method gives a higher value. from plotting time series of annual rainfall see that very variation so 5- moving average made to reduce the variance of rain but still variations so second 5- moving average made give less variance for rain then teak liner trend the result show also trend will decrease but reach 125 mm less than liner trend of actual series.