Estimating the carbon impacts of leakage from forest restoration and the costs of reducing them

Estimating the carbon impacts of leakage from forest restoration and the costs of reducing them | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Estimating the carbon impacts of leakage from forest restoration and the costs of reducing them Francisco d'Albertas, Tom Swinfield, Ben Filewod, Stefan Wirsenius, and 8 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9440067/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Ecosystem restoration is a key nature-based climate solution but risks displacing economic activities and triggering leakage – whereby forgone production drives habitat loss elsewhere, eroding benefits. Focusing on reforestation opportunities Brazilian ranchland we characterized leakage risk as the ratio of forgone beef production to carbon gained. Assuming 100% of forgone production results in extensification we asked: what is the impact of unaddressed leakage; how much can leakage be reduced by prioritizing restoration in low-yielding, high-carbon areas; and can it be cost-effectively mitigated by targeted intensification? Taking likely leakage into account but not tackling it increased median costs of restoration (over ignoring it entirely) by 43-100%, to median values of 33 and 24 USD tCO₂e⁻¹ in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, respectively. Prioritizing low-leakage sites reduced these costs by 21–37%; combining this with targeted intensification cut net carbon costs further, to 67% of unmitigated levels. Our broad findings hold at 30% (cf 100%) extensification and in other sensitivity analyses, and reveal leakage can substantially increase carbon costs, but that careful siting and targeted intensification can provide extremely cost-effective mitigation. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Ecosystem services Biological sciences/Ecology/Restoration ecology Biological sciences/Ecology/Environmental economics Biological sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology Full Text Additional Declarations Yes there is potential Competing Interest. Two co-authors are affiliated with companies working on forest restoration and nature-based solutions. Supplementary Files 02dalbertasetalSuppMat10042026.docx Supplementary Methods Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9440067","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":628721370,"identity":"e1e0b585-0877-435c-a87b-d8116e86d11a","order_by":0,"name":"Francisco d'Albertas","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1684-0277","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Francisco","middleName":"","lastName":"d'Albertas","suffix":""},{"id":628721371,"identity":"4af037a7-c95e-44a8-9f18-919a26026806","order_by":1,"name":"Tom Swinfield","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9354-5090","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tom","middleName":"","lastName":"Swinfield","suffix":""},{"id":628721372,"identity":"872a0e3c-6f5f-46e2-9c4a-0f83c6e0caf3","order_by":2,"name":"Ben Filewod","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1572-3151","institution":"LSE","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ben","middleName":"","lastName":"Filewod","suffix":""},{"id":628721373,"identity":"3163e342-d4e8-4fc9-a83f-95637b017eff","order_by":3,"name":"Stefan Wirsenius","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7632-6977","institution":"Chalmers University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stefan","middleName":"","lastName":"Wirsenius","suffix":""},{"id":628721374,"identity":"2ca916a9-9c26-4304-b16a-83f3645b0378","order_by":4,"name":"Timothy Searchinger","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Timothy","middleName":"","lastName":"Searchinger","suffix":""},{"id":628721375,"identity":"d01b0854-4a16-444f-b678-3d44f9d4a92e","order_by":5,"name":"Thomas Ball","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thomas","middleName":"","lastName":"Ball","suffix":""},{"id":628721376,"identity":"36957f4f-78c4-4cb7-baaf-078b63d96834","order_by":6,"name":"Gianluca Cerullo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gianluca","middleName":"","lastName":"Cerullo","suffix":""},{"id":628721377,"identity":"f6e3fc5d-bdf5-4030-bdf5-0df671d8dcca","order_by":7,"name":"Jody Holland","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jody","middleName":"","lastName":"Holland","suffix":""},{"id":628721378,"identity":"304164f2-c173-46bb-be0a-8eff1fed14a8","order_by":8,"name":"Anil Madhavapeddy","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anil","middleName":"","lastName":"Madhavapeddy","suffix":""},{"id":628721379,"identity":"c58439f9-c95f-4ca2-97e6-c851a2cf3d33","order_by":9,"name":"Demetrius Martins","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Instituto de Biologia, University of Campinas (UNICAMP)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Demetrius","middleName":"","lastName":"Martins","suffix":""},{"id":628721380,"identity":"3326dcc0-1a95-490b-8126-1e550f1f0728","order_by":10,"name":"Sara Mortara","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Re.green","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sara","middleName":"","lastName":"Mortara","suffix":""},{"id":628721381,"identity":"ea9b503d-cd43-4683-847d-1ed444eff85a","order_by":11,"name":"Andrew Balmford","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0144-3589","institution":"University of Cambridge","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrew","middleName":"","lastName":"Balmford","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-16 15:27:31","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9440067/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9440067/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107870618,"identity":"a326e20a-6e1d-42b7-bf04-f465e9549a38","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-27 07:40:09","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1539165,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"01dalbertasetalMainText13042026.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9440067/v1_covered_4dfec529-7f0a-4bde-8b2d-bf17a8c58fd6.pdf"},{"id":107857208,"identity":"d71c4a27-8719-4c7d-aa0a-b60d150068fe","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-27 04:17:29","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1936799,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Methods","description":"","filename":"02dalbertasetalSuppMat10042026.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9440067/v1/8396f9a4f2b1b76d839f83bb.docx"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cb\u003eYes\u003c/b\u003e there is potential Competing Interest.\nTwo co-authors are affiliated with companies working on forest restoration and nature-based solutions.","formattedTitle":"Estimating the carbon impacts of leakage from forest restoration and the costs of reducing them","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9440067/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9440067/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Ecosystem restoration is a key nature-based climate solution but risks displacing economic activities and triggering leakage – whereby forgone production drives habitat loss elsewhere, eroding benefits. Focusing on reforestation opportunities Brazilian ranchland we characterized leakage risk as the ratio of forgone beef production to carbon gained. Assuming 100% of forgone production results in extensification we asked: what is the impact of unaddressed leakage; how much can leakage be reduced by prioritizing restoration in low-yielding, high-carbon areas; and can it be cost-effectively mitigated by targeted intensification? Taking likely leakage into account but not tackling it increased median costs of restoration (over ignoring it entirely) by 43-100%, to median values of 33 and 24 USD tCO₂e⁻¹ in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, respectively. Prioritizing low-leakage sites reduced these costs by 21–37%; combining this with targeted intensification cut net carbon costs further, to 67% of unmitigated levels. Our broad findings hold at 30% (cf 100%) extensification and in other sensitivity analyses, and reveal leakage can substantially increase carbon costs, but that careful siting and targeted intensification can provide extremely cost-effective mitigation.","manuscriptTitle":"Estimating the carbon impacts of leakage from forest restoration and the costs of reducing them","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-27 04:17:25","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9440067/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-climate-change","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nclimate","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Climate Change](http://www.nature.com/nclimate/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Climate Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"3fd6a82e-2b01-40a7-8e7f-fa0f35a9002c","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 27th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"This content is not available.","date":"2026-05-12T11:30:39+00:00","index":2,"fulltext":"This content is not available."}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":66918088,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Ecosystem services"},{"id":66918089,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Restoration ecology"},{"id":66918090,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Environmental economics"},{"id":66918091,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology"},{"id":66918092,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-27T04:17:25+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-27 04:17:25","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9440067","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9440067","identity":"rs-9440067","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}