Carryover effects modulate spring phenological responses to temperature in a herbivorous insect

Abstract Phenological shifts are a major ecological consequence of climate change, yet studies often focus on single life stages meaning that the potential for carryover effects between life stages remains poorly understood. Failing to account for these effects may lead to inaccurate estimates of phenological shifts, with consequences for predicted synchrony among interacting species. This is especially relevant for temperate systems where climate warming is occurring unevenly across the year. Here, we investigated how temperature experienced the previous autumn and winter (during the pupal and egg stage) influences spring phenology in the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), a herbivorous insect with distinct life stages. Using 50 years of local climate data to create five experimental temperature regimes, we first quantified phenotypic plasticity in the duration and temporal variability of pupal and egg development. We then examined how timing of adult moth emergence affects timing of offspring hatching. We found divergent effects of temperature on different life stages; pupal development time was shortest at intermediate temperatures while egg development time decreased linearly with increasing temperature. Furthermore, phenological shifts due to the conditions experienced by the mother were carried over to influence the phenology of her offspring. While this carryover effect was partially compensated during subsequent stages, compensation decreased under warming conditions. These results refine our understanding of the sensitivity of the annual cycle of winter moth phenology to variation in temperature with potential implications for population dynamics and interspecific interactions. Overall, our findings highlight the need to consider the impacts of warming across multiple life stages so that carryover effects can be properly accounted for. Doing so will improve predictions of phenological shifts under future climates. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest.