A robust kinetic theory-based model for dengue transmission integrating climatic  and socio-economic dynamics

A robust kinetic theory-based model for dengue transmission integrating climatic and socio-economic dynamics | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A robust kinetic theory-based model for dengue transmission integrating climatic and socio-economic dynamics Sandali Hansika, Hasitha Erandi, Sanjeewa Perera, Chaditha Attanayake, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8296326/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background : Dengue is one of the most critical mosquito-borne viral diseases that has rapidly spread in recent years. Despite the fact that the first dengue vaccine was licensed in 2015, the vaccine is still in the experimental stage. As a result, the primary prevention strategies are vector density control and interruption of human-vector contact. To control the spread of disease, it is critical to first understand the spreading trend of the disease and then design effective prevention and control strategies. Methods : In this study, we focus on developing a kinetic-based, data-driven quasi-equilibrium IR model incorporating controlling events along with weekly reported dengue cases, rainfall, temperature, and humidity, with specific time lags for each variable. As a case study, data from the CMC area, Sri Lanka, have been used. To capture realistic disease dynamics, two socioeconomic events have been included: the large-scale cleaning and fogging campaign in 2018 following the 2017 outbreak, and reduced mobility during the COVID-19 restrictions in 2020. Results : The simulated dengue incidence patterns closely matched reported data from 2016 to 2024, with accuracy levels ranging from 65% to 100% across different years. Comparison with a traditional kinetic SIR model showed negligible differences in infected host populations, indicating robust qualitative and quantitative agreement. The Gamma distribution effectively captured human contact patterns, and the model reflected seasonal trends influenced by climatic data and social behavior. Conclusions : The proposed model offers a reliable framework for predicting dengue transmission by integrating climatic, vector-related, and human behavioral factors. Its high accuracy highlights its usefulness for planning effective control strategies, especially in settings where vaccine coverage remains limited. Future improvements could include incorporating more detailed information on human movement and behavior to enhance prediction accuracy further and support efficient resource allocation. Dengue Kinetic-based IR model Zero-order Sugeno method Per-Capita Vector Density Gamma Distribution Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 04 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 13 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 12 Jan, 2026 Editor invited by journal 23 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 22 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 22 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8296326","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":575038029,"identity":"f597d931-2e1f-43e3-a06d-17d40f9bd2ad","order_by":0,"name":"Sandali 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Despite the fact that the first dengue vaccine was licensed in 2015, the vaccine is still in the experimental stage. As a result, the primary prevention strategies are vector density control and interruption of human-vector contact. To control the spread of disease, it is critical to first understand the spreading trend of the disease and then design effective prevention and control strategies.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods\u003c/strong\u003e: In this study, we focus on developing a kinetic-based, data-driven quasi-equilibrium IR model incorporating controlling events along with weekly reported dengue cases, rainfall, temperature, and humidity, with specific time lags for each variable. As a case study, data from the CMC area, Sri Lanka, have been used. 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