Hybrid Deterministic-Stochastic Rainfall-Flow Model for Projecting Seasonal and Annual Flows in Sub-Basins of the State of Paraná

Hybrid Deterministic-Stochastic Rainfall-Flow Model for Projecting Seasonal and Annual Flows in Sub-Basins of the State of Paraná | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Hybrid Deterministic-Stochastic Rainfall-Flow Model for Projecting Seasonal and Annual Flows in Sub-Basins of the State of Paraná Juliane Macedo Magerski, Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2355835/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Estimating and simulating hydroclimatological variables is important for regional water management, since it has the purpose of mitigating socioeconomic and environmental effects. In this context, rainfall-flow models based on seasonal and annual periods can be an important tool for management of regional water resources. The objective of this work was to develop a hybrid deterministic-stochastic rainfall-flow model based on historical hydroclimatological records of the Lower Ivai River and Upper Tibagi River sub-basins, in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Monthly fluviometric and pluviometric data of 10 locations were obtained from the Paraná Waters Institute, and converted into seasonal and annual periods. The concept of equivalent flow was applied to develop a regressive model between the observed and estimated accumulated flows. The results were evaluated by the Shapiro-Wilk (S-W), Komogorov-Smirnov (K-S), Wilcoxon (WCX), and Brown-Forsythe (B-F) tests at 5% level. Significant differences in homogeneity were found for the estimated data series; thus, statistical procedures were carried out for correcting bias through stochastic simulation. The S-W, K-S, WCX, and B-F tests were carried out again, indicating very good results, as the observed and projected flow distributions, means, and variances were very similar. In addition, a graphical analysis showed that the data of observed and projected flows presented the same trend. Thus, the rainfall-flow model proposed showed a simple applicability, presenting no deformities due to local factors, as the sub-basins are in different climatic regions. basins seasonal forecast hydrological model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-2355835","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":167243477,"identity":"f04950ee-d3d8-463c-af90-1d2ff0429f88","order_by":0,"name":"Juliane Macedo Magerski","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACA4YCCSizAoiZmRuI0GIA03IGpIWRsBaQJghgbAOT+LXwS7dfKOYxsJA3Z29g3XRzXm00fztQy4+KbTi1SM45U2DMYyBhuLPnANvt3G3Hc2ccZmxg7DlzG7eTbuQkgLQwbriRANJyLLcBqIWZsQ23FnuoFvsN9x8Atcw5ljufkBYDifQDIC2JG24wALU01ORuIKRF4kYOg+EcA4nkDWcS227nHDuQuxGo5SA+v/DPSH9m8KaiznbD8cPHbufU1OXOO3/44IMfFbi1MDDwmEFjBRwdh8HMA3jUAwH74wdIvDr8ikfBKBgFo2BEAgCDCVxq+pEL2AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"State University of Ponta Grossa, Ponta Grossa – Paraná","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Juliane","middleName":"Macedo","lastName":"Magerski","suffix":""},{"id":167243478,"identity":"8692337c-2e68-42ee-87e7-1324b76862b2","order_by":1,"name":"Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"State University of Ponta Grossa, Ponta Grossa – Paraná","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jorim","middleName":"Sousa das Virgens","lastName":"Filho","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2022-12-08 02:29:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2355835/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2355835/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":31652370,"identity":"fb95f639-3e1f-4145-a861-b98f3d4f6b36","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2023-01-16 21:39:40","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":807494,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Artigopostadoatt.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2355835/v1_covered.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eHybrid Deterministic-Stochastic Rainfall-Flow Model for Projecting Seasonal and Annual Flows in Sub-Basins of the State of Paraná\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"basins, seasonal forecast, hydrological model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2355835/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2355835/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Estimating and simulating hydroclimatological variables is important for regional water management, since it has the purpose of mitigating socioeconomic and environmental effects. 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