Cross-validated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard 

Abstract We propose a cross-validated seismic hazard (CVSH) method contrasting time-independent and dependent models via the Poisson and Weibull probability cumulative distributions. Based on the upper-limit spectral accelerations retrieved from the time-dependent models, we infer that in the memoryless Poisson approach, the selected lifetime of buildings is location-dependent rather than a fixed classical value of 50 years for all sites. All models compute the seismic hazard for magnitudes M 5-7.83 by the influence of the interface subduction zone in El Salvador at three locations, the Capital City San Salvador, the Port of Acajutla on the coastline, and Arcatao Town in the North of the country returning average spectral accelerations with less than 10% differences in all cases.