Future Atmospheric Rivers in Antarctica: characteristics and impacts with the IPSL model.

Future Atmospheric Rivers in Antarctica: characteristics and impacts with the IPSL model. | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 3 September 2025 V2 Latest version Share on Future Atmospheric Rivers in Antarctica: characteristics and impacts with the IPSL model. Authors : Léonard Barthélemy 0009-0002-0479-2116 [email protected] , Francis Codron 0000-0001-7038-6189 , Jonathan Wille 0000-0002-3918-5204 , Vincent Favier 0000-0001-6024-9498 , and Kyle R Clem 0000-0002-1419-2758 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.171387374.47240076/v2 Published Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Version of record Peer review timeline 736 views 268 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow corridors of intense water vapor transport that have significant impacts on the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) through both snow accumulation and surface melt due to rain and heat. To estimate their impacts on future SMB, we study Antarctic ARs in an ensemble of 21st-century simulations of the IPSL-CM6 model. Although the number of detected ARs continuously increases when using a constant detection threshold based on historical moisture fluxes, it remains stable with an adaptive threshold evolving with the rising background moisture. In addition, ARs penetrate further into Antarctica following a wave number 3 pattern. The severity of Antarctic ARs, measured by moisture fluxes, is projected to increase following the moisture content given by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. The corresponding SMB impacts all become larger, with both increasing snowfall and coastal surface melt and rainfall. However, their overall influence on the SMB is dominated by the increased snow accumulation related to ARs, which is rising by 17% at the scale of the continent. This is much more significant than the overall increase in snow accumulation from all events combined, which is 9%, and is more closely related to the rise in total humidity in relation with temperature — i.e., linked to the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. Supplementary Material File (future_atmospheric_rivers_in_antarctica_intensity_and_impact.pdf) Download 3.80 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 23 April 2024 V2 Version 2 03 September 2025 Peer review timeline Published Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Version of Record 26 Dec 2025 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords antarctica atmospheric sciences atmospherics rivers climatology (global change) surface mass balance Authors Affiliations Léonard Barthélemy 0009-0002-0479-2116 [email protected] French National Centre for Scientific Research View all articles by this author Francis Codron 0000-0001-7038-6189 LOCEAN, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/IRD/MNHN View all articles by this author Jonathan Wille 0000-0002-3918-5204 ETH Zurich View all articles by this author Vincent Favier 0000-0001-6024-9498 Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS View all articles by this author Kyle R Clem 0000-0002-1419-2758 Victoria University of Wellington: Wellington, NZ View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 736 views 268 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Léonard Barthélemy, Francis Codron, Jonathan Wille, et al. Future Atmospheric Rivers in Antarctica: characteristics and impacts with the IPSL model.. Authorea . 03 September 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.171387374.47240076/v2 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); Cited by Xun Zou, F. Martin Ralph, David H. Bromwich, Sarah T. Gille, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Matthew R. Mazloff, Dan Lubin, Ivana Cerovečki, Rui Sun, Jonathan D. Wille, Zhenhai Zhang, Antarctica’s uncertain future: global sea-level rise from oceanic and atmospheric forcing, with a focus on atmospheric rivers, Frontiers in Earth Science, 14 , (2026). https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2026.1761959 Crossref Loading... View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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