The Global Food Crisis Will Not Be Over When International Prices Are Back to Normal

Since 2017, the prevalence and absolute number of undernourished people have been increasing. While much of the recent surge in global food prices can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the food security crisis will not be over when prices come down to pre-COVID levels.Domestic food price inflation is what matters for the undernourished and those at risk to become food insecure. Average food prices saw an unprecedented 15% increase toward the end of 2022 — and much higher levels in many countries. The causes are complex and influenced by macroeconomic and exchange rate factors, debts, climate stress (droughts and floods) and conflicts, and partly related to international price movements.The global economy has still not recovered from the economic decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. Public spending to mitigate the consequences of the pandemic increased short-term borrowing and indebtedness causing macroeconomic turbulences. The debt crisis needs to be addressed by international financial institutions at scale (i.e., by issuing and sharing Special Drawing Rights to guarantee liquidity and by implementing well designed debt relief programs).The increase in food, fertilizer, and energy prices began before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Price expectations and economic sanctions on Russia and its ally Belarus have created additional shortages in global fertilizer markets. Decreased fertilizer usage in Africa by 20% and in many other countries may cause significant production shortfalls, causing further threats to food security in some low and middle income countries (LMICs). Political coordination, such as the Black Sea Initiative, to keep grain and fertilizer trade open, is needed to increase availability.The global food crisis also requires longer term actions. These include food security and nutrition programs and agricultural trade and development policies to reduce the suffering of people and pressure on markets. More fundamentally, a redesign of the ongoing follow-up to the UN Food Systems Summit 2021 is called for. This could provide a global response to the food crisis and ensure global food systems reform issues on the agenda, in addition to the national pathways of food systems transformations.