Leading Countries in Olive Oil Exports and Global Quantity and Revenue Estimates for the Years 2024-2028

Leading Countries in Olive Oil Exports and Global Quantity and Revenue Estimates for the Years 2024-2028 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Leading Countries in Olive Oil Exports and Global Quantity and Revenue Estimates for the Years 2024-2028 Ahmet UZUNDUMLU, Özge UZUNDUMLU İNSUYU, Abdullah KARAPINAR This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8860350/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study aims to predict how olive oil, which has increased in export volume and value, will evolve over the next five years in key countries and worldwide. The SAS 9.4 statistical application was used to assess FAOSTAT data from 1961 to 2023 using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach. This study examined Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), Concentration Ratio (CR), and market rivalry over a period of 10 years. The HHI index consistently surpasses 1,800, indicating oligopolistic market characteristics, while the CR 5 values consistently surpass 80%. CR 1 always exceeds 30%, making Spain the market leader in terms of export volume and value. The 2021–2023 and 2024–2028 HHI values are 0.232–0.241 and 231–237, respectively, while CR 5 is 85.14–86.72 and 84.42–85.44, indicating the continued dominance of these five countries, albeit with a minor decrease. Spain will maintain its leadership by increasing production volume but decreasing value in 2021–2023 and 2024–2028. Italy maintained its quantity and value leadership, although its value share has declined. Tunisia's value share drop despite increasing production, Greece's depreciation despite steady output, and Portugal's gain despite falling production show the importance of quality-focused initiatives in 2024–2028. Türkiye will rank 6th in export volume and value, with 4.60% and 3.66% shares, respectively. Climate change-induced production declines in Spain, Greece, and Portugal have caused supply shortages and price increases, although leading countries have maintained export income. In a monopolistic market, top countries can earn more money with fewer items by focusing on quality, setting prices correctly, and regulating the market strategically to mitigate climatic risks. ARIMA Export Climate impact Oleic acid Oligopoly Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 02 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 16 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 16 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 12 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8860350","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":599081237,"identity":"59381ca4-9966-4737-b3bd-e4fdf7900dd9","order_by":0,"name":"Ahmet UZUNDUMLU","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBADHn4ILQHECURqkWxgRtJygBg9BgeYYUwCWvj7zxh//FGxTcb4+PmDn3l3WDDws+cYMH/cg1uLxI0cA2OeM7d5zM4kM0vznpFgkOx5Y8Bw4Bkea27wGCQztgG1HEhmkOZtk2AwABrCcACPy+TPnzE4+PPfbR7j/sfMv0Fa7AlpMTiQY9jA23Cbx0AimQ1iiwQBLYY30oqZeY7d5pG48djMcm6bBI/EmWcFB87g0SJ3/vDmjz9qbtvz9yc+vvG2rU6Ovz1544MKPFowAA+IIEXDKBgFo2AUjAIsAADhplAAyUk7LgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Atatürk University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ahmet","middleName":"","lastName":"UZUNDUMLU","suffix":""},{"id":599081238,"identity":"e8ca3766-f096-40a5-9288-09217c87bc44","order_by":1,"name":"Özge UZUNDUMLU İNSUYU","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Özge","middleName":"UZUNDUMLU","lastName":"İNSUYU","suffix":""},{"id":599081239,"identity":"b24a089f-316a-442f-917c-aa19e6f3457a","order_by":2,"name":"Abdullah KARAPINAR","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"General Directorate of Turkish Grain Board (TGB),","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abdullah","middleName":"","lastName":"KARAPINAR","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-12 09:39:52","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8860350/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8860350/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105564224,"identity":"287e0328-4588-43e5-bff9-98380df40076","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-27 12:49:04","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":497326,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"OliveOilmanuscriptwithauthors.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8860350/v1_covered_3ac48173-1039-4779-a29b-3c29b9c89fcf.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eLeading Countries in Olive Oil Exports and Global Quantity and Revenue Estimates for the Years 2024-2028\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":false,"email":"","identity":"applied-fruit-science","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Applied Fruit Science","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"VoR Journals","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"ARIMA, Export, Climate impact, Oleic acid, Oligopoly","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8860350/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8860350/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study aims to predict how olive oil, which has increased in export volume and value, will evolve over the next five years in key countries and worldwide. The SAS 9.4 statistical application was used to assess FAOSTAT data from 1961 to 2023 using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach. This study examined Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), Concentration Ratio (CR), and market rivalry over a period of 10 years. The HHI index consistently surpasses 1,800, indicating oligopolistic market characteristics, while the CR\u003csub\u003e5\u003c/sub\u003e values consistently surpass 80%. CR\u003csub\u003e1\u003c/sub\u003e always exceeds 30%, making Spain the market leader in terms of export volume and value. The 2021\u0026ndash;2023 and 2024\u0026ndash;2028 HHI values are 0.232\u0026ndash;0.241 and 231\u0026ndash;237, respectively, while CR\u003csub\u003e5\u003c/sub\u003e is 85.14\u0026ndash;86.72 and 84.42\u0026ndash;85.44, indicating the continued dominance of these five countries, albeit with a minor decrease. Spain will maintain its leadership by increasing production volume but decreasing value in 2021\u0026ndash;2023 and 2024\u0026ndash;2028. Italy maintained its quantity and value leadership, although its value share has declined. Tunisia's value share drop despite increasing production, Greece's depreciation despite steady output, and Portugal's gain despite falling production show the importance of quality-focused initiatives in 2024\u0026ndash;2028. T\u0026uuml;rkiye will rank 6th in export volume and value, with 4.60% and 3.66% shares, respectively. Climate change-induced production declines in Spain, Greece, and Portugal have caused supply shortages and price increases, although leading countries have maintained export income. In a monopolistic market, top countries can earn more money with fewer items by focusing on quality, setting prices correctly, and regulating the market strategically to mitigate climatic risks.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Leading Countries in Olive Oil Exports and Global Quantity and Revenue Estimates for the Years 2024-2028","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-23 19:12:34","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8860350/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-03-02T07:20:42+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-02-16T07:22:14+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-02-16T07:18:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Applied Fruit Science","date":"2026-02-12T09:23:31+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":false,"email":"","identity":"applied-fruit-science","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Applied Fruit Science","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"VoR Journals","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"0e874bbc-c224-4179-8015-58baf9bd0ad6","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 23rd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"in-revision","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-04T06:10:01+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-23 19:12:34","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8860350","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8860350","identity":"rs-8860350","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}