Global, Regional, and National Burden of Ovarian Cancer in Women Aged 45+ from 1990 to 2021 and Projections for 2050: A Systematic Analysis Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Ovarian Cancer in Women Aged 45+ from 1990 to 2021 and Projections for 2050: A Systematic Analysis Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Global, Regional, and National Burden of Ovarian Cancer in Women Aged 45+ from 1990 to 2021 and Projections for 2050: A Systematic Analysis Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study Yanan Ren, Ren Xu, Yazhuo wang, LuYang Su, jianzhi su This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6873532/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology → Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Purpose: Ovarian cancer is the most common cause of gynecologic cancer-related deaths. We aimed to assess the global, regional, and national burdens and trends of Ovarian Cancer in Women Aged 45+ from 1990 to 2019 and Projections for 2050, utilizing data from the most recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Methods: Age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed using GBD 2021 data. Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Regional disparities were examined via the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models assessed disease dynamics, while Bayesian APC (BAPC) modeling projected trends to 2050. Results: In 2021, global ovarian cancer incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in women aged 45+ were 239,682; 843,405; 171,246; and 4,352,539, respectively. The global burden declined significantly from 1990 to 2021 and is projected to remain stable through 2050. However, regional disparities persist: High and High-middle SDI regions saw decreases, while Middle to Low SDI regions experienced increases. Burden increased with SDI up to 0.8, then declined. Population growth was the primary contributor, followed by epidemiologic transitions and aging. The 55–59 age group showed the highest morbidity and DALYs; mortality peaked at 65–69 years. Conclusions: Although the overall burden of ovarian cancer in women aged 45+ is declining globally, marked regional disparities underscore the need for tailored prevention and treatment strategies to further reduce disease impact and improve outcomes. Ovarian cancer global burden of disease socio-demographic index Age-Period-Cohort model Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort projections incidence prevalence DALYs Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files 1.xlsx 2.xlsx 3.xlsx 4.xlsx 5.xlsx 1ASIR.pdf 2ASPR.pdf 3ASMR.pdf 4ASDR.pdf 5.pdf 6.pdf 7.pdf 8DALYs.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 03 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 23 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 23 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 20 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Jun, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 13 Jun, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 12 Jun, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 12 Jun, 2025 First submitted to journal 11 Jun, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6873532","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":471089371,"identity":"4572479d-b5c7-4af1-b345-c2badd7314a8","order_by":0,"name":"Yanan Ren","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hebei General Hospital","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yanan","middleName":"","lastName":"Ren","suffix":""},{"id":471089372,"identity":"e1c64c7b-aec5-493f-bcdc-9a4d3a753773","order_by":1,"name":"Ren Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hebei General 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We aimed to assess the global, regional, and national burdens and trends of Ovarian Cancer in Women Aged 45+ from 1990 to 2019 and Projections for 2050, utilizing data from the most recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAge-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed using GBD 2021 data. Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Regional disparities were examined via the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models assessed disease dynamics, while Bayesian APC (BAPC) modeling projected trends to 2050.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn 2021, global ovarian cancer incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in women aged 45+ were 239,682; 843,405; 171,246; and 4,352,539, respectively. The global burden declined significantly from 1990 to 2021 and is projected to remain stable through 2050. However, regional disparities persist: High and High-middle SDI regions saw decreases, while Middle to Low SDI regions experienced increases. Burden increased with SDI up to 0.8, then declined. Population growth was the primary contributor, followed by epidemiologic transitions and aging. The 55–59 age group showed the highest morbidity and DALYs; mortality peaked at 65–69 years.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusions:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAlthough the overall burden of ovarian cancer in women aged 45+ is declining globally, marked regional disparities underscore the need for tailored prevention and treatment strategies to further reduce disease impact and improve outcomes.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Global, Regional, and National Burden of Ovarian Cancer in Women Aged 45+ from 1990 to 2021 and Projections for 2050: A Systematic Analysis Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-16 09:06:54","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6873532/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-07-03T16:58:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"249128484920452696284803485630241463344","date":"2025-06-26T12:15:54+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-06-23T16:11:06+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"273235206701503357329617684801928476665","date":"2025-06-23T15:56:09+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"11697045337056378189695437570597328078","date":"2025-06-23T08:05:41+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"191832042829744766252752721496290114203","date":"2025-06-21T01:37:47+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-06-20T07:59:57+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"58149275820633025598251331581744583030","date":"2025-06-13T21:34:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-06-13T04:38:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-06-12T06:33:16+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-06-12T06:27:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology","date":"2025-06-11T15:50:36+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-cancer-research-and-clinical-oncology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"jocr","sideBox":"Learn more about [Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology](https://www.springer.com/journal/432)","snPcode":"432","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/432/3","title":"Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"0b96588f-7285-44c6-a2a5-2263de0de261","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 16th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-04T16:39:07+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6873532","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-025-06277-9","journal":{"identity":"journal-of-cancer-research-and-clinical-oncology","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology"},"publishedOn":"2025-08-02 16:12:53","publishedOnDateReadable":"August 2nd, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-16 09:06:54","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00432-025-06277-9","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-025-06277-9","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6873532","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6873532","identity":"rs-6873532","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}