Impacts of Antarctic heatwaves amplified by climate change through water vapor and cloud feedbacks

Impacts of Antarctic heatwaves amplified by climate change through water vapor and cloud feedbacks | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Impacts of Antarctic heatwaves amplified by climate change through water vapor and cloud feedbacks Sergi González-Herrero, Pranab Deb, Shihan Li, Daniel Argueso, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7712953/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Antarctic heatwaves driven by atmospheric rivers are emerging as high-impact extremes, yet the role of climate change in amplifying such events remains uncertain. Here we investigate the climate change contribution to the March 2022 East Antarctic heatwave using pseudo-global warming experiments with the snow-atmospheric coupled model CRYOWRF. By comparing present-day and preindustrial storylines, we identify that under current climate, cloud and water-vapor radiation feedbacks non-linearly amplify near-surface warming by up to 25% relative to preindustrial conditions. These feedbacks are likely underrepresented in global climate models due to their use of hydrostatic dynamics, and poor cloud representation over coarse resolutions. Future warming further intensifies this amplification, particularly in coastal regions where firn air content is depleted, meltwater percolates, and ice lenses thicken. Such melting conditions threaten to accelerate surface mass loss and destabilize the fringing ice shelves. Our results reveal a key amplification pathway for Antarctic extremes, with potentially far-reaching implications for ice-sheet stability. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Attribution Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files PGWMarch202220250923Supplementary.docx Supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7712953","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":523782423,"identity":"df4f5a01-3f4d-4281-9de8-ed6c5f746d78","order_by":0,"name":"Sergi 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