AMOC tipping slows permafrost carbon release during overshoot

AMOC tipping slows permafrost carbon release during overshoot | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article AMOC tipping slows permafrost carbon release during overshoot Norman Julius Steinert, Jörg Schwinger, Eleanor Burke, Biqing Zhu, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7031516/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Overshooting global warming targets risks irreversible Earth system changes. However, uncertainties remain in how critical Earth system components such as permafrost and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) respond to and interact under warming. Here, we use three climate models of varying complexity to assess the permafrost carbon response under climate mitigation scenarios. We find that permafrost loses 11–21 PgC of carbon per 100 degree-years of time-integrated warming exposure during overshoot in a robust linear relationship. This relationship also holds true under relative Northern Hemisphere cooling from a temporary AMOC slowdown during overshoot. The AMOC weakening induces a negative feedback, reducing permafrost carbon loss by 30% per 100 degree-years of AMOC-induced relative cooling, partly offsetting climate change impacts on permafrost. These results underscore the importance of including both destabilizing and stabilizing Earth system feedbacks when assessing overshoot impacts, critical for informing carbon budgets, net-zero planning, and climate change reversibility. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7031516","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":503038355,"identity":"f5bb5a25-f039-445e-9df1-3f83722458b1","order_by":0,"name":"Norman Julius 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However, uncertainties remain in how critical Earth system components such as permafrost and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) respond to and interact under warming. Here, we use three climate models of varying complexity to assess the permafrost carbon response under climate mitigation scenarios. We find that permafrost loses 11–21 PgC of carbon per 100 degree-years of time-integrated warming exposure during overshoot in a robust linear relationship. This relationship also holds true under relative Northern Hemisphere cooling from a temporary AMOC slowdown during overshoot. The AMOC weakening induces a negative feedback, reducing permafrost carbon loss by 30% per 100 degree-years of AMOC-induced relative cooling, partly offsetting climate change impacts on permafrost. 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