Emergent Constraint on Future Changes in the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation

Emergent Constraint on Future Changes in the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Emergent Constraint on Future Changes in the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation Gavin D. Madakumbura, Jesse Norris, Chad Thackeray, Stephen Po-Chedley, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3908042/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Intensification of the hydrological cycle manifests through a global increase in precipitation at a rate lower than the increase in water vapor, and a consequent weakening in the atmospheric tropical overturning circulation (ATOC). This circulation change shapes future precipitation patterns, but is highly uncertain across Earth System Models (ESMs), complicating efforts seeking to constrain projected changes in regional precipitation. Using two ESM ensembles, we present an emergent relationship between the ATOC’s response to anthropogenic warming, and the ATOC’s variability associated with interannual temperature anomalies. Models simulating the largest future ATOC weakening per degree warming also tend to simulate the largest weakening in association with an internally-generated warm anomaly. Observational estimates of ATOC sensitivity suggest that future ATOC weakening due to climate change is likely larger than expected from a simple multimodel mean (from -1.41±1.06 %/K to -2.20±0.93 %/K). Lastly, we show how this enhanced ATOC weakening impacts regional precipitation patterns. These constrained circulation and precipitation estimates provide a better understanding of how tropical hydroclimate will respond to future warming and associated regional climate impacts. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplementarytable1.pdf Supplementery Table 1 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3908042","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":274907925,"identity":"40026524-126a-4078-ae32-378e8e24459d","order_by":0,"name":"Gavin D. 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This circulation change shapes future precipitation patterns, but is highly uncertain across Earth System Models (ESMs), complicating efforts seeking to constrain projected changes in regional precipitation. Using two ESM ensembles, we present an emergent relationship between the ATOC’s response to anthropogenic warming, and the ATOC’s variability associated with interannual temperature anomalies. Models simulating the largest future ATOC weakening per degree warming also tend to simulate the largest weakening in association with an internally-generated warm anomaly. Observational estimates of ATOC sensitivity suggest that future ATOC weakening due to climate change is likely larger than expected from a simple multimodel mean (from -1.41±1.06 %/K to -2.20±0.93 %/K). Lastly, we show how this enhanced ATOC weakening impacts regional precipitation patterns. 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