Marine carbon cycling and sequestration is extremely sensitive to zooplankton grazing in biogeochemical models

Marine carbon cycling and sequestration is extremely sensitive to zooplankton grazing in biogeochemical models | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Marine carbon cycling and sequestration is extremely sensitive to zooplankton grazing in biogeochemical models Tyler Rohr, Anthony Richardson, Andrew Lenton, Matthew Chamberlain, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1880023/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Jun, 2023 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Zooplankton grazing regulates marine carbon cycling by constraining phytoplankton populations and the subsequent transfer of carbon to depth and higher trophic levels. Yet, without robust in-situ data to constrain them, the grazing formulation in state-of-the-art climate models varies largely. We present a new metric to compare how fast zooplankton are assumed to graze in 10 state-of-the-art (CMIP6) biogeochemical models and find they differ by nearly 2 orders of magnitude, implying an ocean populated exclusively with everything from slow-grazing krill to rapidly-grazing ciliates. We use a global, coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model to test the sensitivity of marine carbon cycling to this uncertainty and find the Net Primary Production (NPP) and export efficiency collapse across the range of plausible values. Even when tuned to identical NPP by increasing phytoplankton growth rates, export and secondary production remain extremely sensitive to grazing, likely biasing predictions of future climate states and food security. Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Rohretal2022SM.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Jun, 2023 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-1880023","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":124970358,"identity":"6055f459-cb7c-4b31-aa39-e3b467b37443","order_by":0,"name":"Tyler Rohr","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5gYwZcDAfAAqkoBfAw8DI0wLWwLDARK18BgQp8VeIrHxcQXDPTlz6TPfpD/U1DHws+cYMPxsw2OLRGKz4RmGYmPLvtxtEgeOHWaQ7HljwNiLX0ubZANDQuKGM7xALWwHGAxuAG3hxa+l/SdEC88ziQP/6hjsgVoY/xKwhRGqhU3iYBszg4FEjgEzXlvOPGyWbDBIMDY4w2ZscbbvMI/EmWcFh2XO4dbC3p588GNDRYKcwRnmhzcqvtXJ8bcnb3z4pgy3FgaBBAZQpCCsBREH8GhgYODHLz0KRsEoGAWjgIEBAAkmTmCGfrIPAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6599-8068","institution":"Australian Antarctic Partnership Program","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tyler","middleName":"","lastName":"Rohr","suffix":""},{"id":124970359,"identity":"361a3587-cfd3-42b4-8172-b7d00d290f55","order_by":1,"name":"Anthony Richardson","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anthony","middleName":"","lastName":"Richardson","suffix":""},{"id":124970360,"identity":"3f466492-66b2-4654-9037-a978f77de969","order_by":2,"name":"Andrew Lenton","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9437-8896","institution":"Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrew","middleName":"","lastName":"Lenton","suffix":""},{"id":124970361,"identity":"b45f0454-7f0c-4299-91f4-967640af0fe3","order_by":3,"name":"Matthew Chamberlain","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"CSIRO Oceans \u0026 Atmosphere","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matthew","middleName":"","lastName":"Chamberlain","suffix":""},{"id":124970362,"identity":"774dcf69-1eed-4839-90f6-784c906b27c0","order_by":4,"name":"Elizabeth Shadwick","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"CSIRO Oceans \u0026 Atmosphere; 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Yet, without robust in-situ data to constrain them, the grazing formulation in state-of-the-art climate models varies largely. We present a new metric to compare how fast zooplankton are assumed to graze in 10 state-of-the-art (CMIP6) biogeochemical models and find they differ by nearly 2 orders of magnitude, implying an ocean populated exclusively with everything from slow-grazing krill to rapidly-grazing ciliates. We use a global, coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model to test the sensitivity of marine carbon cycling to this uncertainty and find the Net Primary Production (NPP) and export efficiency collapse across the range of plausible values. 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