Groundwater resources decline in Apennine Mountain areas (central Italy): climate change or hidden consumer?

Groundwater resources decline in Apennine Mountain areas (central Italy): climate change or hidden consumer? | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Groundwater resources decline in Apennine Mountain areas (central Italy): climate change or hidden consumer? Francesco Lampa, Steffen Birk, Marco Materazzi, Thomas Wagner, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8347102/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The study aims to investigate the role of intensive forest growth, which began around the middle of the 20th century in northern Apennines (central Italy), in the decline of groundwater resources. The method, based on the crop evapotranspiration, considers different land use categories and their areal changes over time. Few studies in this sector of the Apennines have assessed the impact of forest growth on groundwater resources in mountain areas, mainly due to the difficulty of estimating crop coefficients in this type of contexts. Two model approaches, one of which also considers snow storage and melting, were used to quantify the impact of forest cover on groundwater recharge in the study area. The results suggest for the first time that forest growth over the last 60 years has negatively impacted the availability of groundwater resources by reducing groundwater recharge; specifically, the analysis performed during the last decades within one test site yielded average values of annual water loss between 6% and 16% of the annual spring discharge, via a lumped-parameter model and by water budget, respectively. However, the influence of forest growth could be even more significant when considering other parts of the study region. The developed approach is particularly flexible and generally applicable to other contexts. Groundwater resources depletion Land use change Climate change Rainfall-runoff model central Italy Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementarymaterialLampa.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 04 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 02 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 26 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 30 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 13 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 13 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 12 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8347102","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":583737681,"identity":"40698ae4-ed23-483c-8b29-06b2c1becec1","order_by":0,"name":"Francesco Lampa","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gY4kxnMlGNgYAQzeHBp4TkAZ0JUGsO14NKDoSURbi1OLdKHnz34UVEnz8/A2Pjp5g679A23mxs//MxhkLHHpYUvzdyw58xhw5kNjM3SuWeSczfcOdgs2bsNt8PseRjMpBnbDiQYHGBskM5tY87dcCOxjYEXjxYeHvZv0oz/6kBamn/nttWnGwC1MP7Fq4UHaEsDM0hLG9CWwwkgLcz4beEpk+w5BvRLM2Obde6Z44YzbyQ2S8tuk+BBCkx0h22T+FEDDDH25sO3c3dUy/PdSH/48e02G3ukWMYBmBlgUQMGEoTUQwGSllEwCkbBKBgFcAAAespTYVbDEIUAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Camerino","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Francesco","middleName":"","lastName":"Lampa","suffix":""},{"id":583737682,"identity":"19aa36a6-cb95-4907-97c3-93b72178352c","order_by":1,"name":"Steffen Birk","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Graz","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Steffen","middleName":"","lastName":"Birk","suffix":""},{"id":583737683,"identity":"df94b873-75b3-4150-b7d4-5f26e3750c85","order_by":2,"name":"Marco Materazzi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Camerino","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marco","middleName":"","lastName":"Materazzi","suffix":""},{"id":583737684,"identity":"76d4ca74-068e-47b3-875f-8162ace274c3","order_by":3,"name":"Thomas Wagner","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Graz","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thomas","middleName":"","lastName":"Wagner","suffix":""},{"id":583737685,"identity":"c3a329c3-2291-4f75-82c5-110c1b2c410c","order_by":4,"name":"Carlo Ianni","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Camerino","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Carlo","middleName":"","lastName":"Ianni","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-12 15:23:31","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8347102/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8347102/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101678055,"identity":"e3fff8aa-7948-4625-a049-f7fde17366db","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-02 13:57:27","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":4215075,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementarymaterialLampa.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8347102/v1/57508319c0eed52beb93fa96.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Groundwater resources decline in Apennine Mountain areas (central Italy): climate change or hidden consumer?","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-earth-sciences","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"enge","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Earth Sciences](https://www.springer.com/journal/12665)","snPcode":"12665","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12665/3","title":"Environmental Earth Sciences","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Groundwater resources depletion, Land use change, Climate change, Rainfall-runoff model, central Italy","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8347102/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8347102/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe study aims to investigate the role of intensive forest growth, which began around the middle of the 20th century in northern Apennines (central Italy), in the decline of groundwater resources. 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