Living in Uncertain Times: Pre-Pandemic Vulnerabilities as Predictors of Longitudinal Changes in Psychological Distress Across the First Two Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background and Objectives: Intolerance of uncertainty (IU), pre-existing mental health problems, and perceived COVID-19 threat may be contributing to mental health symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigated changes in mental health problems prior to and during the first two pandemic waves in the U.S., and the extent to which IU and perceived COVID-19 threat predicted these problems. Design and Method: MTurk participants (n=192; 50% women) recruited from a pre-pandemic study were followed across five timepoints between April and August 2020. IU, mental health symptoms (i.e., worry, COVID-19 fears, and trauma-related symptoms), and perceived and objective measures of COVID-19 threat were assessed. Results: On average, worry and trauma-related symptoms were not elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, and scores remained stable across time. Higher baseline IU and mental health symptoms did in fact act as vulnerabilities, predicting more worry, trauma-related symptoms, COVID-19 fears, and perceptions of threat. Perceived threat did not seem well-calibrated with objective threat, with measures of the two constructs showing no associations or even inverse associations. Conclusions: Pre-existing worry and trauma-related symptoms, IU and perceived COVID-19 threat may foster vulnerability to mental health symptoms during the pandemic, more so than objective threat.