Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Triple Co-Infections of Dengue, Chikungunya, and Malaria

Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Triple Co-Infections of Dengue, Chikungunya, and Malaria | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Triple Co-Infections of Dengue, Chikungunya, and Malaria Queeneth Ojoma Ahman, Ifeanyi Sunday Onah This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7402983/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Triple co-infections of dengue, chikungunya, and malaria pose significant health risks in tropical and subtropical regions where these diseases co-circulate. Most existing models focus on single or dual infections, overlooking the complex interactions among all three pathogens. This study develops a unified mathematical framework to investigate the transmission dynamics of dengue, chikungunya, and malaria co-infections. Methods A deterministic compartmental model is constructed to capture the epidemiological interplay of the three infections. The model is subjected to rigorous mathematical analysis, including derivation of equilibria, reproduction numbers, and stability conditions. Numerical simulations are conducted to explore co-infection dynamics under varying epidemiological scenarios. Results Analysis reveals that co-infections significantly alter disease transmission thresholds and epidemic potential compared to single infections. The basic reproduction number is shown to depend on both individual and combined contributions of the pathogens. Simulations demonstrate that the presence of one infection can amplify or suppress the spread of the others, highlighting nonlinear interactions. Conclusion The study emphasizes the need for integrated control strategies targeting all three infections simultaneously, rather than disease-specific interventions. The model provides valuable insights into the complexity of triple co-infections, informing public health policies in regions with overlapping disease burdens. MSC[2020] 92D30 92C60 37N25 Epidemiological modelling Dengue Chikungunya Malaria Co-infection dynamics Vector-borne diseases Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7402983","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":517790021,"identity":"38430d13-162b-41b1-8003-e27efb491be3","order_by":0,"name":"Queeneth Ojoma Ahman","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Confluence University of Science and Technology (CUSTECH) Osara","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Queeneth","middleName":"Ojoma","lastName":"Ahman","suffix":""},{"id":517790022,"identity":"3a12d2b3-8ac1-4324-83e2-bef4f1e626ec","order_by":1,"name":"Ifeanyi Sunday Onah","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABBUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNuYDIEoCzGb4wMCMkJLApYUtAaGFcQYxWhggWqA28hCjhY+N+eDnwjYLBn7p5mePbXdYRzOw9xgw/KhhSJzZgMthbMnSM9skGCTnHDM3zj2TntvAcyyBsecYQ+JsXO6S7zGQ5gVqMbiRYCad23Y4t0Ei+QADbwND4jxcWtj4P/+GaEn/Jm0J1pLYwPgXrxYeNqgtOWbSjFBbmEG24HQYG5uZNc85CR7JGTllkr1t6bltQL8cljkmYYzL+/JtzI9v85TVyfFLpG+T+NlmndvP3mP48E2NjeyMAzisAQFGNgYehL1AfABPRELBHwLyo2AUjIJRMLIBALlHS80EHZZAAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Oxford","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ifeanyi","middleName":"Sunday","lastName":"Onah","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-18 22:23:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7402983/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7402983/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92293632,"identity":"2d11ce7c-a043-4b99-98ec-a8e99f0e19b2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-27 00:52:05","extension":"json","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4401,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"32ef5e28a86441afbbfc0bb399b13ba5.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7402983/v1/508fed9c6ae79d6559d5403b.json"},{"id":95525040,"identity":"9a812ead-be32-4e8b-924e-e964506efa47","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-10 10:04:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":943927,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"TrippleInfectionfile.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7402983/v1_covered_e0b9e2ba-efc3-49ba-ba3a-d649a61ec47b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Triple Co-Infections of Dengue, Chikungunya, and Malaria","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":" Epidemiological modelling, Dengue, Chikungunya, Malaria, Co-infection dynamics, Vector-borne diseases","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7402983/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7402983/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eBackground Triple co-infections of dengue, chikungunya, and malaria pose significant health risks in tropical and subtropical regions where these diseases co-circulate. Most existing models focus on single or dual infections, overlooking the complex interactions among all three pathogens. This study develops a unified mathematical framework to investigate the transmission dynamics of dengue, chikungunya, and malaria co-infections.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMethods A deterministic compartmental model is constructed to capture the epidemiological interplay of the three infections. The model is subjected to rigorous mathematical analysis, including derivation of equilibria, reproduction numbers, and stability conditions. Numerical simulations are conducted to explore co-infection dynamics under varying epidemiological scenarios.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eResults Analysis reveals that co-infections significantly alter disease transmission thresholds and epidemic potential compared to single infections. The basic reproduction number is shown to depend on both individual and combined contributions of the pathogens. Simulations demonstrate that the presence of one infection can amplify or suppress the spread of the others, highlighting nonlinear interactions.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eConclusion The study emphasizes the need for integrated control strategies targeting all three infections simultaneously, rather than disease-specific interventions. 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