The risk of viral infectious diseases outbreak and mortality associated with various environmental pollutions: Different spectrums of infection and trends

The risk of viral infectious diseases outbreak and mortality associated with various environmental pollutions: Different spectrums of infection and trends | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The risk of viral infectious diseases outbreak and mortality associated with various environmental pollutions: Different spectrums of infection and trends Weiming Hou This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9246216/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Previous investigations have investigated the association between the incidence of a single infectious disease and meteorological or chemical pollution factors, but have rarely explored the single and mixed effects of comparing multiple pollutions on incidence and mortality of multiple viral infectious diseases. Methods Our researchers collected six viral infectious diseases data from 2005–2019 as well as meteorological and pollutions (water, life, noise and chemical) factors in Beijing, China. The moving epidemic method (MEM) is applied to estimate epidemic threshold and intensity level. Then, a weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression was developed to assess single and multiple effects among meteorological and pollutions on different spectrums of diseases. Results Across the spectrum of infections, explicit diseases such as HFRS, measles, and influenza were in the advanced, intermediate, and late high levels of prevalence in 2005–2019, respectively, while latent diseases such as viral hepatitis, HFMD and AIDS had high levels of prevalence in the same order. Pollutions with the highest positive estimated weights for these incidence threshold outcomes were domestic waste output (WQS weight = 0.47 for AIDS), industrial wastewater discharge (WQS weight = 0.66 for HFMD), SO 2 (WQS weight = 0.37 for HFRS) and NO 2 (WQS weight = 0.20 for Measles). Pollutions with the highest positive estimated weights for these mortality outcomes were harmless treatment ratio for house refuse (WQS weight = 0.32 for AIDS) and industrial wastewater discharge (WQS weight = 0.16 for Influenza). Different incidence threshold and mortality of diseases were some probabilities higher per decile increase in pollutions. Infectious epidemic threshold was mainly affected by domestic and water pollution, while infectious mortality was mainly affected by chemical and water pollution. Conclusions This study represents the first mathematical analysis of seasonal thresholds across two infectious disease spectra, enabling accurate estimation of epidemic severity. Our findings highlight the importance of long-term pollution monitoring for the prevention and control of viral infectious diseases. Viral infectious diseases Moving epidemic method Pollutions Weighted quantile sum Infection spectrums Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Table 1 to 5 are available in the Supplementary Files section. Supplementary Files Tables.doc Supplementfiles.doc Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9246216","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":619212774,"identity":"b88b0a06-c8fa-42c5-9fdf-801bbbcac1ec","order_by":0,"name":"Weiming Hou","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAvElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAyA+kGBgw8PP3tj48AORWhgPfKhIk5PsOdxsLEGkFuaDM84cNja4kd4mwEOMFnOJ7ITDvG2HE2fOfNjGIMFgJ6fbQECL5YzcDUAt6Yn90oltDwoYko3NDhBy2G2wFuvEmbMT2w0kGA4kbiNSC3PihpsH2yR4iNUC9L4z0PuMxGq5/3YDNJATgYFsQIxfzpzd/AESlccfPvxQYSdHUAu6CaQpHwWjYBSMglGAAwAAw59NL1KN8toAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Medical Engineering, Air Force Medical Center, PLA, Air Force Medical University, Beijing, 100142, China.","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Weiming","middleName":"","lastName":"Hou","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-27 15:08:57","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9246216/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9246216/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108672653,"identity":"04a6c153-e3ff-4180-8548-f3fee6efdba9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-07 07:58:11","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":472204,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9246216/v1_covered_7ce530ed-c1c2-40c6-ab7b-a614fc828158.pdf"},{"id":106724261,"identity":"a8ee9533-d002-466f-b909-4d2cdf647268","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-12 18:27:04","extension":"doc","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":250368,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Tables.doc","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9246216/v1/2ec8e586fb92696a985a415a.doc"},{"id":106461731,"identity":"f0bd3f90-8373-4e37-a474-d494a990237e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 20:21:43","extension":"doc","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2548736,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Supplementfiles.doc","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9246216/v1/d998226538c9fbc26bd88fda.doc"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eNo competing interests reported.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 1 to 5 are \u0026nbsp;available in the Supplementary Files section.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"The risk of viral infectious diseases outbreak and mortality associated with various environmental pollutions: Different spectrums of infection and trends","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Viral infectious diseases, Moving epidemic method, Pollutions, Weighted quantile sum, Infection spectrums","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9246216/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9246216/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrevious investigations have investigated the association between the incidence of a single infectious disease and meteorological or chemical pollution factors, but have rarely explored the single and mixed effects of comparing multiple pollutions on incidence and mortality of multiple viral infectious diseases.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eOur researchers collected six viral infectious diseases data from 2005\u0026ndash;2019 as well as meteorological and pollutions (water, life, noise and chemical) factors in Beijing, China. The moving epidemic method (MEM) is applied to estimate epidemic threshold and intensity level. Then, a weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression was developed to assess single and multiple effects among meteorological and pollutions on different spectrums of diseases.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcross the spectrum of infections, explicit diseases such as HFRS, measles, and influenza were in the advanced, intermediate, and late high levels of prevalence in 2005\u0026ndash;2019, respectively, while latent diseases such as viral hepatitis, HFMD and AIDS had high levels of prevalence in the same order. Pollutions with the highest positive estimated weights for these incidence threshold outcomes were domestic waste output (WQS weight\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.47 for AIDS), industrial wastewater discharge (WQS weight\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.66 for HFMD), SO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e (WQS weight\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.37 for HFRS) and NO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e (WQS weight\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.20 for Measles). Pollutions with the highest positive estimated weights for these mortality outcomes were harmless treatment ratio for house refuse (WQS weight\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.32 for AIDS) and industrial wastewater discharge (WQS weight\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.16 for Influenza). Different incidence threshold and mortality of diseases were some probabilities higher per decile increase in pollutions. Infectious epidemic threshold was mainly affected by domestic and water pollution, while infectious mortality was mainly affected by chemical and water pollution.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusions\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study represents the first mathematical analysis of seasonal thresholds across two infectious disease spectra, enabling accurate estimation of epidemic severity. Our findings highlight the importance of long-term pollution monitoring for the prevention and control of viral infectious diseases.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The risk of viral infectious diseases outbreak and mortality associated with various environmental pollutions: Different spectrums of infection and trends","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-08 20:21:40","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9246216/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b6a59ae2-faee-4bbe-a8c3-b3af4dbb1b52","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 8th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-07T07:57:26+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-08 20:21:40","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9246216","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9246216","identity":"rs-9246216","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}