Abstract
Introduction Innovations in the fields of clinical studies require time to generate and disseminate
new knowledge. We aimed to specifically explore lag times between the introduction and
widespread use of innovative statistical methods in oncology using the competing risks and phase I
model-based clinical trials settings as examples.
Methods
First, we defined a set of closed articles for each setting based on two princeps papers
(Gray, Annals of Statistics 1998 for the competing risks setting and O’Quigley et al., Biometrics
1990 for the phase I setting). Secondly, we retrieved from the web of science all citations of the
papers included in these sets. Each journal was classified as applied, semi-applied or
methodological.
Results
A total of 6,727 citations for the competing risks setting and 2,639 citations for the phase I
setting were found. Time to reach 25 citations was 6.2 years for the Gray’s paper and 4.5 years for
the Fine and Gray paper, while it ranged from 3.4 years up to at least 20.1 years and not reached for
6 papers from the competing risks setting. The vast majority (91%) of the citing papers for the
competing risks setting originated from applied journals. In contrast, less than half (44%) of the
citing papers for the phase I setting were published in applied journals.
Conclusion
Statistical innovations in the competing risks setting have been widely diffused in the
medical literature unlike the model-based designs for phase I trials, which are still seldom used 30
years after publication.
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Introduction
Translational medicine, aiming to expedite the discovery of new diagnostic tools and
treatments by using a multi-disciplinary and collaborative approach, has grown interests in the last
decade. Moreover, the commonly accepted delay of 17 years for research evidence to reach clinical
practice
recently appears to decrease [1] as exemplified by the mapping networks of publications
and cross-references. [2] However, most translation gaps between knowledge and clinical
application that have been investigated, notably in oncology, concerned translation of biological
drivers into therapeutic benefits for patients. [3]
For the advancement of clinical research and eventually of patient care, the translation of
innovative statistical methods into practice is also of crucial importance, though the average time
elapsed for biostatical innovation to reach medical use is less known. In 1994, Altman showed that,
while the key survival paper of Kaplan and Meier achieved only six citations in medical journals in
the first 10 years after publication, evidence of decreasing lag times between the introduction and
widespread use of innovative statistical methods was expected.
[4] More than 2 decades later, we
wondered whether the reported above decreasing dichotomy between basic or preclinical and
clinical research [2] could be also true in the transfer of innovative statistical methods, confirming
the Altman’s hypothesis. [4]
We first focused on competing risks methods, the key innovative survival methods of the
last decades, [5] common in cancer. Indeed, competing risks exist whenever the probability of the
main event (e.g., cancer) is prevented (e.g., by death) or altered (e.g., by transplantation) to occur. In
this setting, standard survival methods that ignore the informative censoring of these competing
events may result in biased effects of prognostic factors or treatments, [6] illustrating the need for
bridging the gap of innovation into practice. Two innovative papers that first proposed a statistical
test
[7] and a regression model [8] for such data, were selected as the first innovative set.
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With the aim of focusing on statistical innovations of potential large expected therapeutic
benefits for patients, we secondly considered the setting of phase I clinical trials, which is also of
great interest in the oncology area though with a limited diffusion as compared to phase III.
[9] We
chose as the most influential statistical pioneering approach, the continual reassessment method
(CRM) that is, a model-based approach for dose-finding studies where only empiric 3+3 designs
(formerly Fibonacci) were long available. We thus included in the second innovative set the original
paper of the CRM [10] together with its close proposed modifications (Table 2).
The primary objective of this paper was to assess whether Altman’s prediction was fulfilled
in the field of oncology using the competing risks and the phase I clinical trials as examples.
Secondary objectives were to study the relative importance of the applied and statistical literature in
papers citing statistical innovations and to analyze which medical areas the methods are mainly
used.
Methods
Selection of articles
Based on our knowledge, we a priori included the paper by Gray[7] and that by Fine
and Gray
[8] in the innovative set for the competing risks setting. For the phase I setting, beside the
paper by O’Quigley, [10] because numerous modifications of the initial CRM very similar to the
initial paper were published, we jointly considered the set of those articles. Thus, we retrieved all
papers citing O’Quigley’s paper [10] in the Web of Science on May 9, 2018. We then constructed a
co-citations network, where co-citations were defined as links between two papers, both of which
cited by the same paper. The relatedness of papers was based on the number of times they have
been cited together. This process was used to create the innovative set for the phase I trials setting.
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Citation data
For both settings, we retrieved all citations of the innovative set from the Web of Science on
July, 23 2018. Citation data were imported into R software (https://www.R-project.org/)
using the
Bibliometrix package. [12] The information retrieved included the title, abstract, date of
publication, journal name and category according to the classification by Incites Journal Citation
(https://jcr.incites.thomsonreuters.com). We excluded animal studies by searching animal names
(cat, dog, mice, mouse, rat, monkey, primate, macaque) in the title. Each citation article was also
segregated to one of the three following categories according to the journal of publication: 1)
applied journals, 2) semi-applied journals, and 3) methodological journals (Table 3). For citations of
the phase I setting, one investigator (A V) manually reviewed the papers with “phase I” in title to
check if they were actual dose-finding phase I clinical trials.
Statistical analysis
Analysis was performed for each setting, separately. Summary statistics were reported,
either mean (standard deviation) or median [interquartile range]. We plotted the cumulative number
and proportions of “applied”, “semi-applied”, and “methodological” fractions of citations
5 over
time as a percentage of the citations classified in the three categories of journals defined above.
We defined translational gap as the time between the publication of the biostatistical paper and the
time it reached 25 citations in applied literature, as defined by Altman; [4] estimated cumulative
incidence of translational gap was estimated by the Kaplan Meier approach, due to the
administrative censoring of the data on 2018.
To obtain further insight into the medical literature citing these innovative statistical tools,
we constructed a citation network using the journal as the statistical unit (rather than the paper). Use
of this network, together with clustering techniques, allowed us to analyze which medical areas
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(using the journal as a proxy) cited the most statistical innovations. V osViewer
was used to create
maps and clustering analysis. [14]
Ethical Statement
All methods were carried out in accordance with relevant guidelines and regulations. No
informed consent or ethics approval was necessary because this study is based on publicly available
data and involved no individual patient data collection or analysis.
Results
The innovative sets of papers used for both settings are reported in Table 2. They included 2
articles for the competing risks set, and 28 for the phase I set.
Competing risks set
A total of 6,727 citations (5,863 unique articles), including 2,431 for Gray’s article and
4,296 for the Fine and Gray paper, were found (Table 1). Time to translational gap was 6.2 years for
the Gray’s paper and 4.5 years for the Fine and Gray paper. The vast majority (91%) of the citations
originated from applied journals, with a sharp and continuous increase in citations over time (Figure
1); in contrast, the citations from methodological and semi-applied journals represented only small
percentages (6% and 2%, respectively) of the citing papers over the entire period. This was
confirmed by the representation of the network of these journals (Figure 2).
Beside a methodological cluster, two major clusters confirmed the two main areas of
application of competing risks, namely oncology (e.g., Journal of Clinical Oncology, European
Journal of Cancer and Hematology) and hematology (e.g., Blood, Haematologica, and Bone
Marrow Transplantation). Other clusters represent other areas of application, such as cardiovascular
diseases.
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Phase I clinical trials set
After excluding books and animal studies, a total of 2,639 citations (1,114 unique papers
after removing duplicates) for the phase I innovative set were found. The three most cited papers
were published by O’Quigley in 1999 (676 citations), Goodman in 1995 (258 citations) and Babb in
1998 (235 citations). Contrarily to the competing risks setting, the translational gap differed across
papers, from 3.4 years up to at least 20.1 years since not reached for 6 papers. Overall, it was
reached by 10.7% of the set articles at year-5 and by 47.9% at year-10. Less than one half (44%) of
citing articles were published in applied journals, more than one third (36%) in statistics journals,
and a fifth (20%) in semi-applied journals, with roughly similar rate of citations over time (Figure
1). When we restricted the citations to those articles with “phase I” in the title, only 415 (37%)
articles were selected; of these, only 110 were found to be phase I clinical trials after manual
reviewing the titles.
Network of the journals of papers citing one of the phase I set is displayed in Figure 2. The right
part of the graph represents the methodological cluster containing, for example, Statistics in
Medicine and Biometrics. The left part of the graph represents the large group concerning
applications or reviews of the CRM in the most important clinical cancer journals (Journal of
Clinical Oncology, Clinical Cancer Research, Annals of Oncology, British Journal of Cancer, and
Journal of National Cancer Institute); in contrast, non-cancer journals had published only a few
studies.
Discussion
This study aimed to check whether the time lags in the statistical translation process was
actually shortened, focusing on two areas with a large potential for clinical research improvements
and widely encountered in the oncology literature, namely, the survival methods for competing risks
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data and the new designs for phase I clinical trials. The answer was bifid, with a short translational
gap, defined by the time to reach 25 citations, [4]
of about 5 years for the former, but delayed above
10 years for one half of the later. This could be expected given the two statistical innovative sets are
used at different stages of clinical studies, with different levels of complexity. Indeed, the first set of
competing risks articles deals with method of data analysis, that can easily be performed using
modern statistical software without the need for major expertise - although whether such studies are
used, performed and interpreted correctly can be another matter.
[15] Therefore, such a lag time of
about 5 years for using an innovative data analytic method is in agreement with the time to
publication after completion of data collection and analysis recently estimated at about 3 years in
six journals with high impact factors. [16] In contrast, the second set of innovative methods concern
a change in trial design and logistics; thus, beside the time of analysis and publication, the transfer
of innovative clinical trial design into the medical literature is obviously impacted by the additional
constraints of patient enrollment time, and the follow-up period for the end point. It moreover
requires statisticians to engage since the planning phase, [17] up to the analysis of the data, contrary
to traditional methods such as the ‘3+3’ design, which can be used without involving statisticians
and computer programs and remains the most common choice among clinicians for phase I dose-
escalation oncology trials. [18]
Moreover, difference in complexity of both settings was illustrated in terms of citation
patterns. Although the competing risks methodology was widely diffused over the medical (in
particular, oncology) community, methodology relating to innovative designs for cancer Phase I
trials failed to translate easily into practice, consistent with the results of a previous study that
showed a very slow transfer of phase I design improvements into clinical practice. [19]
Nevertheless, the two settings share large implications for clinical research, and researchers
trying to apply the statistical innovative methods should not be delayed in using the new
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knowledge. This is notably true in the setting of phase I trials in oncology, where improved
selection of patients due to improvements in translational medicine should translate into faster and
more precise dose determination.
[20] Diffusing more widely into the applied literature and the
medical community could be achieved in several ways. First, communication between
biostatisticians and clinical colleagues should be improved, although many reviews have been
published on these methods in the medical literature, as illustrated by the non-negligible fraction of
semi-applied and applied papers that are different from the original clinical trials used in our study.
This could be driven through key gateway journals, as suggested by the clusters of citation journals
where Journal of Clinical Oncology and Statistics in Medicine appear major players (Figure 2).
Concerning competing risks analysis, for which adequate modern methods have been integrated
into all modern statistical software, a key step may be to educate clinicians to recognize the settings
in which competing risks are of concern and to persuade them of the importance of using those
methods. For the design of phase I studies, improvements in providing concrete guidance for
designing such trials and facilitating their implementation in practice is still mandatory for bridging
the gap between statistical innovation and practical implementation. Model-based designs are cited
in the US FDA guidance for industries that are related to adaptive clinical trials as “less understood
models,” and the FDA highlights some of their disadvantages. [21]
Our study has some limitations. First, we used citations as a measure of the transfer of
knowledge between researchers and physicians. Such citation counts, although not a direct measure
of the intrinsic significance of a research idea, provide a measure of statistical technology transfer
and of its impact. [4] However, in addition to papers that focus on ranking journals and impact
factors [22]
many others have considered the citations only qualitatively. [23] Second, we
segregated articles into three categories of applied, semi-applied and methodological journals, as
previously reported. [5] However, this distinction is somewhat simplistic because the applied
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fractions of articles published in statistical journals may increase over time; this is reportedly
highest for statistical medicine. [5] Third, we focused on two main and distinct topics of
biostatistics, and the results might differ for other statistical innovations, such as dynamic prediction
modelling, the joint modelling of longitudinal data, and multiple imputation techniques for handling
missing data.
Conclusion
In summary, statistical innovations for the competing risks setting have been widely diffused
in the medical literature, especially in oncology and hematology, fulfilling Altman’s prediction
about decreasing lag times, unlike the model-based designs for phase I trials, which are still seldom
used 30 years after their first publication. However, for both statistical methods, a translational gap
remains that needs to be filled before the oncology community can benefit fully from these modern
methods.
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Competing interests: The author(s) declare no competing interests.
Funding: There was no specific funding for this study.
Authors’ contributions: SC had the original idea. SC and A V designed the study. A V conducted the
literature search, extracted and analyzed data. A V , VL, and SC participated in the interpretation of
the data. A V drafted the manuscript. A V , VL, and SC authors reviewed the manuscript and approved
the final version.
Availability of data and material: Data used in this study are publicly available data. The datasets
generated and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on
reasonable request.
Acknowledgements
We wish to thank Dr Lucie Biard for helpful comments on the manuscript.
We acknowledge the paid contribution of American Journal Experts (Research Square, Durham,
NC, USA) for copyediting.
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Table 1: Number of citations retrieved from Web of Science on July 23, 2018
Setting Competing Risks Phase I trials
No. of articles in the innovative set a 2 28
Number of citations
Mean per year 232 97
Per article: median [IQR] 3,364 [2,897-3,830] 41.5 [28-115.75]
Total 6,727 2,639
Type of journals,b n (%)
Applied 6,098 (91) 852 (32)
Semi-Applied 158 (2) 544 (21)
Methodological 471 (7) 1,243 (47)
Time to bridge translation gap
Cumulative incidence at 5 years 50% 10.7%
Cumulative incidence at 10 years 100% 47.9%
No. of unique citing articles 5,863 1,114
Type of journals,a n (%)
Applied 5,369 (92) 493 (44)
Semi-Applied 134 (2) 218 (20)
Methodological 360 (6) 403 (36)
Mean number of citations
per year
232 36
a. The list of journals of each innovative set is presented in Table 2
b. The list of journals of each category is presented in Table 3.
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Table 2. List of selected articles for each innovative set.
First Author Journal Pub. Year No. of
citations
Time to
25 citations (years)
Competing Risks Setting
Fine Journal of The American Statistical Association 1999 4,296 4.5
Gray The Annals of Statistics 1988 2,431 6.2
Phase I setting
O’Quigley Biometrics 1990 676 5.7
Goodman Statistics In Medicine 1995 258 5.0
Babb J Statistics In Medicine 1998 235 5.3
Cheung Biometrics 2000 181 3.4
O’Quigley Biometrics 1996 170 7.1
Korn Statistics In Medicine 1994 144 5.5
Ratain Journal of The National Cancer Institute 1993 136 4.6
Braun Controlled Clinical Trials 2002 109 5.6
Moller Statistics In Medicine 1995 85 8.8
Piantadosi Cancer Chemotherapy And Pharmacology 1998 84 10.4
Chevret Statistics In Medicine 1993 68 10.3
Whitehead Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics 1998 58 9.8
Mick Journal of The National Cancer Institute 1993 46 8.4
Tighiouart Statistics In Medicine 2005 42 9.5
O’Quigley Biometrics 1992 41 9.5
Reiner Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 1999 38 13.2
Ishizuka Statistics In Medicine 2001 37 10.9
O'Quigley Biostatistics 2002 36 11.8
O'Quigley Biometrics 2003 35 11.8
O'Quigley Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics 1999 32 16.6
Babb Statistics In Medicine 2001 29 15.6
Zacks Statistics & Probability Letters 1998 25 20.1
Rogatko Clinical Cancer Research 2005 19 Not reached
O'Quigley Journal of Statistical Planning And Inference 2006 17 Not reached
Doussau Statistics In Medicine 2013 14 Not reached
Legedza Controlled Clinical Trials 2000 10 Not reached
Shu Statistics In Medicine 2008 7 Not reached
Mahmood Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2001 7 Not reached
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Table 3. List of selected journals for each class.
Applied Semi-Applied Methodological
All other journals 1. Trials
2. Contemp Clin Trials
3. Clin Trials
4. Int J Clin Pharm Th
5. Expert Rev Clin Phar
6. Invest New Drug
7. Neurotherapeutics
8. Ther Innov Regul Sci
9. Cancer Chemoth Pharm
10. Expert Opin Drug Met
11. Fund Clin Pharmacol
12. Clin Pharmacol Ther
13. Control Clin Trials
14. Phytother Res
15. Cancer Drug Design And
Discovery
16. Drug Inf J
17. Pharm Med
18. J Food Drug Anal
19. Toxicon
20. Bmc Med Res Methodol
21. Oncology Clinical Trials
22. Brit J Clin Pharmaco
23. Expert Opin Drug Dis
24. Pers Med
25. Drug Discovery And
Development - Present
And Future
26. Cancer Drug Discov D
27. J Pharmacokinet Phar
28. Clin Pharmacokinet
29. Aaps J
30. Icsa Book Ser Stat
31. Drug Discovery And
Development - From
Molecules To Medicine
32. Re-Engineering Clinical
Trials: Best Practices For
S
treamlining Drug
Development
33. Aliment Pharm Ther
34. Pharm Res-Dordr
35. Essential Cns Drug
Development
36. Am J Epidemiol
37. Therapie
38. Drug Develop Res
39. Anticancer Therapeutics
40. Anti-Cancer Drug
41. E Schering Res Fdn W
42. J Clin Pharmacol
43. J Clin Pharm Ther
1. Stat Med
2. Stat Pap
3. Stat Methods Med Res
4. J Biopharm Stat
5. Stat Interface
6. Pharm Stat
7. Biostatistics
8. Comput Meth Prog Bio
9. Commun Stat Appl Met
10. J Am Stat Assoc
11. Biometrical J
12. Ann Appl Stat
13. Biometrics
14. J Stat Softw
15. Comput Stat Data An
16. Appl Bioinf Biostat
17. Adaptive And Flexible
Clinical Trials
18. J Appl Stat
19. Stat Sci
20. Fundamentals Of Clinical
Trials, Fourth Edition
21. Stat Biopharm Res
22. J
Roy Stat Soc C-App
23. Handb Stat
24. Wiley Ser Probab St
25. J Stat Plan Infer
26. Biometrika
27. Stat Model
28. Sequential Anal
29. Stat Sinica
30. J R Stat Soc B
31. J R Stat Soc C-Appl
32. Stat Biosci
33. Environmetrics
34. Aust Nz J Stat
35. Commun Stat-Theor M
36. Contr Stat
37. J Chem Inf Model
38. Stat Pract
39. Commun Stat-Simul C
40. Ch Crc Biostat Ser
41. Stat Biol Health
42. Can J Stat
43. J Stat Comput Sim
44. Bayesian Anal
45. J Off Stat
46. Stat Probabil Lett
47. Stata J
48. Cr Math
49. Springer P Math Stat
50. J Multivariate Anal
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44. Drug Discov Today
45. Fundam Clin Pharm
46. Am J Ther
47. Indian J Pharmacol
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A
B
Figure 1. Cumulative number of citations for the competing risks setting (Panel A) and the phase I
trials setting (Panel B) retrieved from the Web of Science and classified in each category of journals.
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The copyright holder for this preprint (which was notthis version posted June 25, 2019. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/19000638doi: medRxiv preprint
A
B
Figure 2. Citation network of journals for the two innovative sets (Competing risks- Fig 2A, Phase I
trials- Fig 2B). For clarity, only journals with at least 5 citations are represented.
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