Future Projection of Maximum Potential Storm Surge along East Asia based on CMIP6 HighResMIP

Future Projection of Maximum Potential Storm Surge along East Asia based on CMIP6 HighResMIP | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Future Projection of Maximum Potential Storm Surge along East Asia based on CMIP6 HighResMIP Shun Ito, Tomoya Shimura, Takuya Miyashita, Nobuhito Mori This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8078435/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Using the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) model, a climatological approach with low modeling cost based on the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) theory of typhoons, we conducted a long-term evaluation of the maximum potential storm surge for a total of 49 bays in East Asia using the HighResMIP experiment, a set of high-resolution global climate models that includes ocean coupling as a data set. The algorithm in this framework was developed to correct theoretical north-south differences in typhoon intensity by up to 80% by introducing a decay process of intensity associated with typhoon movement into the existing storm surge model. The maximum potential storm surge in Osaka Bay is expected to rise by up to 1.5 m by 2050, and a significant future change trend is 0.7 m per decade in Shanghai. The results suggest the importance of considering future changes in storm surge anomaly in adaptation measures in major bays in East Asia, where rising storm surge trends are evident. Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 1. Introduction In recent years, global warming has been increasingly recognized as a driver of diverse environmental transformations extending beyond mere temperature increases and sea level rise. Among these transformations, the intensification of typhoons —a meteorological phenomenon capable of inducing severe natural disasters— has emerged as a critical concern, particularly regarding its influence on storm surges (Mori and Takemi, 2016). Although storm surges associated with typhoons occur less frequently than those triggered by strong winds and heavy rainfall, their impacts can be disproportionately destructive. This risk is exacerbated by the geographical vulnerability of Japan’s major metropolitan areas, which are predominantly situated in low-lying coastal zones. In light of these situations, long-term assessments of climate-related risks and the formulation of disaster mitigation strategies have become imperative. The increasing threat of storm surges is primarily attributed to two interrelated factors: sea level rise resulting from thermal expansion and the intensification of tropical cyclones, commonly referred to as typhoons. Sea level rise represents a static, persistent modification of coastal baselines, while typhoon intensification constitutes a dynamic meteorological change. The manifestation and severity of storm surges are contingent not only upon the frequency of typhoon occurrences in Japan, but also upon typhoon-specific parameters such as size, trajectory, and propagation speed. Nonetheless, due to the relatively low incidence of storm surges compared to typhoons themselves, accurately projecting future changes poses a considerable scientific challenge. On average, only a limited number of typhoons make landfall in Japan each year, and storm surges occur even more infrequently. Given their infrequent occurrence but high potential impact, historical observational records alone are insufficient to reliably assess their frequency and intensity from a disaster preparedness perspective. To address this challenge, climatological methodologies have been employed to enhance the robustness of predictive frameworks. In particular, large-scale ensemble climate simulations have been conducted to increase the number of realizations, thereby improving the statistical representation of future climate scenarios while incorporating uncertainty estimates (Mizuta et al., 2017). Despite these methodological advancements, computational constraints continue to pose significant limitations. As ensemble simulations expand in both scope and temporal resolution, the precise quantification of region-specific phenomena, such as storm surges within individual bays, remains challenging due to the substantial computational resources required. Mori et al. (2021, 2022) developed the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) model, which enables a seamless evaluation of storm surge anomalies by linking atmospheric and oceanic climate fields to localized storm surge responses within specific bays. This model focuses exclusively on storm surge intensity, providing a framework for assessing the potential impacts of global warming on storm surges. Utilizing outputs from global climate models, the MPS approach estimates the maximum possible storm surge magnitudes under worst-case scenarios, accounting for the influence of anthropogenic warming and intensified typhoon activity. One of the primary advantages of this methodology lies in its ability to produce climatologically consistent results at a relatively low computational cost, despite the underlying complexity of the calculations involved. However, the model’s reliance on the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) theory introduces certain limitations. Specifically, MPI represents the theoretical upper bound of cyclone development for a given environmental condition, which may not accurately capture the spatial and temporal variations in typhoon intensity observed. As typhoons typically undergo significant fluctuations in intensity during their lifecycle and movement, the modeled distribution of storm surge intensity may diverge from actual historical or observed events, raising concerns about the reliability of the MPS model's outputs. Furthermore, the model incorporates a subjective definition of bay boundaries and employs a wind-induced parameter based on theoretical assumptions, both of which suggest areas that require further refinement. These aspects underscore the necessity for ongoing model validation and enhancement to improve the accuracy and applicability of storm surge projections under future climate scenarios. Building on the aforementioned background, this study evaluates the theoretical maximum storm surge using a climatological approach, developed through the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) model. The analysis is grounded in the HighResMIP (High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project) experiment of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), which employs both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere–ocean simulations derived from a suite of high-resolution global climate models. To leverage the advantages of the MPI-based approach, which, in contrast to statistical methods, is independent of factors such as typhoon frequency, this study aims to provide a more quantitative evaluation of future changes in typhoon intensity. A key enhancement of the MPS model in this research involves integrating a typhoon intensity decay process during storm movement, a dynamic previously unaccounted for in earlier versions of the model. Additionally, parameters related to wind-induced surges have been refined and automated to increase the model’s robustness, consistency, and broader applicability. Finally, future changes in maximum potential storm surge are projected for 49 target locations: 44 along the Pacific coast of Japan, one along the Sea of Japan, and four additional sites in East Asia outside Japan. 2. Methodology 2.1 Theoretical framework In the MPI–MPS framework proposed by Mori et al. (2021, 2022), the theoretical maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) under given environmental conditions is first estimated using the theory developed by Emanuel et al. (2002). The MPI, characterized by the minimum central pressure ( P m ) and the maximum wind speed ( V m ), is derived based on inputs such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), and vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity. The governing equations are as follows: $$\:\begin{array}{c}{{V}_{m}}^{2}=\frac{{C}_{k}}{{C}_{D}}\frac{{T}_{S}}{{T}_{0}}\left({{\text{C}\text{A}\text{P}\text{E}}_{m}}^{\text{*}}-{\text{C}\text{A}\text{P}\text{E}}_{env}\right)\#\left(1\right)\end{array}$$ $$\:\begin{array}{c}{R}_{d}{T}_{S}ln\frac{{P}_{env}}{{P}_{m}}=\frac{1}{2}{{V}_{m}}^{2}+\left({\text{C}\text{A}\text{P}\text{E}}_{m}-{\text{C}\text{A}\text{P}\text{E}}_{env}\right)\#\left(2\right)\end{array}$$ where Ts is the sea surface temperature, T 0 is the tropopause temperature, CAPE is convective available potential energy, C D and C k are the momentum and heat exchange coefficients at the sea surface, and R d is the gas constant for dry air. Superscript * means the saturated condition, subscript m means the value of RMW (Radius of Maximum Wind speed), and subscript env is the environmental field value. In the MPI–MPS framework, each bay’s theoretical upper limit of storm surge height is estimated from the MPI. Pressure-induced and wind-induced storm surge heights were individually calculated, assuming the worst-case TC track, a steady-state, and the TC translation speeds with the long-wave velocity in the bay. Pressure-induced surges occur when the translation speed of TCs ( V T ) approaches the long wave velocity ( C ) in the bay, indicating the occurrence of Proudman resonance (Proudman, 1929) is expected. Assuming that a pressure wave of ∆P = ϕ(t - x/C) travels along the channel from the entrance ( x = 0) of a one-dimensional channel with depth h connecting to the sea, a pressure-induced surge ζ p is given as $$\:\begin{array}{c}{\left({\zeta\:}_{p}\right)}_{{V}_{T}\to\:C}=\frac{1}{{\rho\:}_{w}g}\left\{\varphi\:\left(t-\frac{x}{C}\right)-\frac{x}{2C}{\varphi\:}^{{\prime\:}}\left(t-\frac{x}{C}\right)\right\}\#\left(3\right)\end{array}$$ where ρ w is the seawater density and g is the acceleration of gravity. Pressure-induced surges are estimated using Myers’ parametric TC pressure distribution in Eq. (3). Wind-induced surges occur when the wind blows toward the shore for a long time and reaches a steady state. Considering the balance between wind stress and gravitational force, a wind-induced surge ζ w is given as $$\:\begin{array}{c}\frac{d{\zeta\:}_{w}}{dx}=\frac{{\rho\:}_{a}}{{\rho\:}_{w}g}\bullet\:\frac{K}{h\left(x\right)}\bullet\:{U}^{2}\#\left(4\right)\end{array}$$ where ρ w is the air density, K is the tuning parameter of a dynamical model, h is the water depth, and U is the wind speed. The MPS can now be estimated as a linear combination of pressure-induced and wind-induced surges. The proposed approach offers several advantages for assessing storm surges. It allows the prediction of worst-case storm surge scenarios while maintaining relatively low computational costs. By incorporating the concept of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the method effectively reduces uncertainty in tropical cyclone intensity and integrates climatological knowledge derived from MPI theory. Furthermore, it offers a practical alternative in cases where even high-resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) are insufficient to reproduce the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones accurately. However, several limitations should be noted. The MPI framework does not account for intensity decay associated with cyclone translation, and in certain latitude bands, MPI does not necessarily represent the upper bound of observed cyclone intensity. In addition, the estimation of the wind setup parameter (topographic parameter K ) in the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) model is currently performed manually. Developing a semi-automated method to estimate this parameter would therefore be a valuable step toward enhancing model efficiency and reproducibility. 2.2 Date set This study employs climatic data from the HighResMIP (High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project; Haarsma et al., 2016) experiment within CMIP6, which was specifically evaluated for TC performance in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), as summarized in Table 1 . The dataset targets the intercomparison of future TC intensities under the RCP8.5 emission scenario over the period from 1950 to 2050. High-resolution global climate simulations were employed to evaluate the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling, encompassing both atmospheric-only Global Climate Models (AGCMs) and fully coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs). AGCMs were forced with observationally derived SSTs that were consistent across models, whereas AOGCMs used model-specific SST projections. Comparative analyses were conducted to evaluate differences in projected TC intensity and associated storm surge potential between the two modeling frameworks. 3. Results and Discussion 3.1 Representation of Typhoons in HighResMIP We utilize the track data from HighResMIP, as analyzed by Roberts et al. (2020a). Four GCMs, HadGEM3-GC31, CNRM-CM6-1, CMCC-CM2, and MRI-AGCM3.2, were used as track data for HighResMIP. Considering two variations in tracking methods and resolutions, a total of 14 models are used in Table 1 . Typhoons were extracted from six-hourly data for the period from 1950 to 2050. As also shown by Roberts et al. (2020a), there are two methods for extracting typhoons from the GCMs: the TRACK and TempestExtremes methods. The TRACK method utilizes relative vorticity as a tracking variable in the HighResMIP, whereas the TempestExtremes method employs sea-level pressure. In the TRACK method, the same grid is used for typhoons across all models. The number of tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones in the TRACK method was adjusted to match the observations. On the other hand, the TempestExtremes method is extracted from the original grid of the climate model. Unlike the TRACK method, this approach is tuned to reduce the detection of weak tropical cyclones. The sensitivity of two different TC track datasets was examined first. First, the statistical accuracy of HighResMIP track data in representing typhoons was confirmed with IBTrACS data. From the perspective of storm surge calculation, the analysis domain of the track data was limited to the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP; 100–180°E, 0–60°N). Figure 1 shows the frequency of strong typhoons (LMI; Lifetime Maximum Intensity is 33 m/s or higher) in the WNP based on IBTrACS. The vertical axis represents the latitudinal band from 0°N to 60°N in the WNP, and the horizontal axis represents the atmospheric pressure. The color bar in the figure indicates the number of data points at that location. As the color of the bar approaches dark red, the number of typhoon intensities in that latitude zone is high. The distribution of typhoon intensity (atmospheric pressure) shows that typhoons with intensities as high as 900 hPa are primarily distributed around 20°N. At high latitudes, such as 40°N, typhoon intensity does not appear in the figure. This result is consistent with Roberts et al (2020a), who found that the peak of the intensity density distribution is generally located in the 10°N to 30°N band, indicating the validity of this analysis. The reproducibility of typhoon intensity from HighResMIP track data is also confirmed by comparing the results with those of IBTrACS. We examined the frequency of strong typhoons extracted by the TRACK method in the HighResMIP of the Atmospheric Global Climate Model, AGCM, shown in Fig. 2 . Typhoons stronger than 920 hPa were not reproduced for HHM. The northern boundary of lifetime maximum intensities (LMI) for HighResMIP track data is considerably farther north than that for IBTrACS. The other models, CN-HR and CM-HR, reproduce typhoons stronger than 920 hPa; however, their latitudinal distribution is approximately 5 degrees north of the IBTrACS results. As shown in Appendix A-1 , results from a suite of atmosphere-ocean coupled models analyzed using the same tracking method reveal that, within the same GCMs, no typhoons with intensities stronger than 920 hPa are detected in the coupled simulations, in contrast to the results from the atmosphere-only models. This suggests that coupling atmospheric and oceanic processes induces phenomena such as ocean mixing and sea surface temperature (SST) cooling following typhoon passage, which act to suppress storm intensification. In the CM-HR simulation, while typhoons with central pressures below 940 hPa are reproduced, similarly to the atmosphere-only model, the strong cyclones continue to migrate northward, maintaining high intensities even in high-latitude regions such as 50°N and 60°N. The results obtained using another tracking method and TempestExtremes are presented in Appendix A-2 . A similar trend can be observed with TRACK. This represents a current limitation in the model’s ability to reproduce typhoons within the HighResMIP dataset. It was confirmed that the current representation of strong typhoons is inadequate even when using the track data from the highest-resolution GCM. Therefore, following the previous studies such as Mori et al. (2021, 2022), the MPI is confirmed to be useful in estimating the upper limit of typhoon intensity in a manner independent of spatial resolution and tracking method. 3.2 Empirical Decay Equation for MPI The MPI represents the maximum potential value of typhoon intensity for a given environmental field. However, MPI does not account for the effect of movement, resulting in an intensity gap when comparing the MPI at a given location with a typhoon’s lifetime maximum intensity. To investigate this further, we compared typhoon intensities across different latitude bands in WNP during the peak typhoon season (July to October) using IBTrACS. In Fig. 3 , the MPI is shown as calculated using JRA-55 (Kobayashi et al., 2015), where the horizontal axis indicates latitude in the WNP, while the left and right vertical axes indicate central pressures and wind speeds, respectively. For the IBTrACS data, the maximum typhoon intensity within each latitude band is indicated by a cross mark +, where the average of the top 10% strongest typhoons is selected as an indicator, for instance, indicated by an asterisk *. The MPI in the solid line, as shown in Fig. 3 , is latitudinally averaged within each latitude band. From the perspective of its theoretical definition, MPI should be above the upper limit of typhoon intensity. In terms of wind speed, MPI generally encompasses the upper bound of observed typhoon intensities up to 30°N; however, this agreement breaks down at latitudes north of 30°N. The main reason for this is that the MPI theory itself cannot account for the effects of typhoon movement. As a result, MPI cannot represent the process of a typhoon moving northward while maintaining its intensity. Although this theoretical–observational gap is not problematic in itself, it poses challenges when applying the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) model. Figure 3 shows that the MPI currently used for storm surge calculations underestimates the actual typhoon intensity, especially in the mid-latitudes and northward around Japan. Therefore, this study updates the MPS model by incorporating the typhoon intensity decay process associated with typhoon movement. To reduce the systematic underestimation of the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) that may result from using the MPI near bays, we incorporate the effect of typhoon advection into the MPS model. This approach aims to better reproduce MPI values that are more representative of local conditions. Wang and Toumi (2022) successfully captured the weakening process of typhoons over the ocean between their peak development and landfall. By integrating this weakening process, associated with typhoon movement, into the MPS model, it becomes possible to account for advection-modified MPS. Based on Wang and Toumi (2022), the following attenuation formula describes the reduction in typhoon intensity from the Lifetime Maximum Intensity (LMI) to the Landfall Intensity (LI); $$\:\begin{array}{c}\frac{1}{LI}=\frac{1}{LMI}{e}^{-\alpha\:T}-\frac{\kappa\:}{\alpha\:}({e}^{-\alpha\:T}-1)\#\left(5\right)\end{array}$$ Here, \(\:\alpha\:\) (= \(\:2.2\times\:{10}^{-7}{\text{m}}^{-1}\) ) is the typhoon intensity attenuation coefficient, and \(\:\kappa\:\:\) (= \(\:3.1\times\:{10}^{-6}{\text{s}}^{-1}\) ) is an empirically tuned attenuation parameter derived from observational data. T denotes the total decay distance. Both LI and LMI represent wind speed. According to Wang and Toumi (2022), the equation reproduces well the decay of typhoon intensity over the ocean after LMI and before LI. The equation mainly depends on the total decay time T. In other words, the typhoon's translation speed and the total decay distance are the main factors governing the typhoon intensity decay. To apply the typhoon intensity attenuation equation to the MPS model, the typhoon translation speed and total attenuation distance, which remain arbitrary in the equation, are investigated based on IBTrACS data. As demonstrated by Wang and Toumi (2022), the variable with the highest sensitivity in the decay equation is the total decay distance. Determining this total decay distance requires identifying the locations corresponding to the LMI and the point just prior to landfall. When applying the decay equation to the MPS model, the pre-landfall location is defined as the target bay under analysis. In contrast, the location of LMI must be determined separately. Following the approach of Wang and Toumi (2022), strong typhoons with LMI wind speeds equal to or greater than 33 m/s were extracted from the IBTrACS dataset for the WNP, and their corresponding LMI locations were identified in Fig. 4 . A normal distribution was fitted to the distribution of all LMI points, and the 95% confidence interval was derived. The upper bound of this interval is shown in red in Fig. 4 and is defined in this study as the northern limit of LMI occurrence. Based on IBTrACS data, this northern limit was found to be 30°N. Next, to estimate the translation speed of typhoons from the northern LMI limit to the bay prior to landfall, we substituted an average typhoon translation speed over the 30°N to 40°N latitude band, which includes the region surrounding Japan's coastal bays. For strong typhoons, such as LMI, with wind speeds exceeding 33 m/s, the average translation speed between 30°N and 40°N was calculated using IBTrACS data and found to be 9.6 m/s. The typhoon intensity decay equation was validated using observational data. Specifically, strong typhoons over the WNP with an LMI exceeding 33 m/s were selected from the IBTrACS dataset. The analysis for the LMI aimed to evaluate the discrepancy between the observed attenuation of typhoon intensity from LMI to the LI and the estimation of improved predictions as a function of latitude. Figure 5 shows typhoon intensity decays after maximum development and before landfall. The thin black lines in Fig. 5 represent the observed intensity decay paths of individual typhoons from LMI to LI. A second-order polynomial was used to fit the observational decay paths, which is represented by the thick black line in Fig. 5 . The red line represents the result of applying the decay equation, assuming the northern limit of LMI at 30°N and an average typhoon translation speed of 9.6 m/s, both derived from IBTrACS data. When the overall attenuation behavior of typhoons in the WNP is considered, the RMSE between the polynomial approximation of observed decay and the attenuation equation is approximately 2.2 m/s. This suggests that the attenuation equation is capable of adequately capturing the decay process of typhoon intensity. To apply the typhoon intensity decay equation, it is necessary to determine the only two remaining degrees of freedom: the northern limit of the LMI and the typhoon translation speed. Figure 3 shows the result of applying the decay equation (dashed line), assuming the LMI occurs at 30°N, from which the dashed line begins. For the typhoon translation speed, we used the mean translation speed observed between 30°N and 40°N based on IBTrACS. Since the attenuation equation is optimized specifically for wind speed, it cannot be directly applied to central pressure. Therefore, to convert wind speed into central pressure, we employed the empirical relationship proposed by Atkinson (1977), which has been widely used in the WNP for approximately four decades. In this context, the resulting central pressure values are derived from the attenuated wind speeds. As a consequence, a gap emerges between the original MPI central pressure (blue solid line in Fig. 3 ) and the converted central pressure from attenuated wind speed (blue dashed line in Fig. 3 ) at 30°N. To reconcile this difference, the converted pressure curve was shifted southward until the corrected pressure at 30°N matched the original MPI pressure value. This adjustment implies that the corrected pressure remains constant between 25°N and 30°N, as indicated by the horizontal blue dashed line in Fig. 3 . Compared to the original MPI values (solid lines in Fig. 3 ), the attenuated wind speeds (dashed lines in Fig. 3 ) successfully capture the upper bound of observed typhoon intensities, particularly the average of the top 10% strongest storms north of 30°N. In terms of central pressure, the original MPI significantly underestimated typhoon intensity when compared to observations. In contrast, the corrected values align much more closely with the average of the top 10% within the same latitude band. Because the decay equation employs an exponential function, the attenuated intensities immediately after its application (i.e., north of 30°N) are slightly lower than the original MPI values. However, when comparing the RMSE between observations and model estimates over the 30°N–40°N range, the improvement is clear: for wind speed, the RMSE between observations and MPI is 12.1 m/s, while that between observations and the attenuation equation is 6.5 m/s, an improvement of approximately 45%. These results indicate that the attenuation process associated with typhoon movement, as described by Wang and Toumi (2022), can be effectively applied to MPI-based estimations of typhoon intensity. 3.3. Typhoon Intensity Decay Equation to HighResMIP Using the northern limit of LMI and the typhoon translation speed derived from the HighResMIP track data, we applied the decay equation to each climate model, considering both the track-derived typhoon intensities and the theoretical upper limit, MPI. We then compared the RMSE between the track-derived top 10% average typhoon intensities and the MPI values, both before and after applying the decay equation for each tracking method and model. Figure 6 presents the RMSE and corresponding improvement rates resulting from introducing the attenuation effect. For historical climate simulations, RMSE was calculated for the latitude band between 30°N and 40°N. For future climate simulations, the RMSE was calculated from a modified lower bound, defined by adding the model-specific future change in the LMI northern limit to 30°N, up to 40°N. The horizontal axis of Fig. 6 shows the change in RMSE (before minus after the attenuation effect) for the historical climate simulations. In contrast, the vertical axis shows the improvement rate of RMSE in the future climate simulations. In Fig. 6 , different markers represent different combinations of tracking methods and model types: triangles (△) indicate atmospheric models using the TRACK algorithm, circles (〇) indicate atmospheric models using the TempestExtremes algorithm, squares (□) indicate coupled atmosphere-ocean models using TRACK, and diamonds (◇) indicate coupled models using TempestExtremes. Colors distinguish climate models, with filled markers representing wind speed results and unfilled markers representing central pressure results. Across all models, the introduction of the attenuation effect consistently reduced the discrepancy between model-based MPI and track-derived typhoon intensities. In terms of wind speed, the RMSE was generally improved by 10–20 m/s, while for central pressure, improvements ranged from 20 to 40 hPa. The RMSE improvements were more pronounced for central pressure than for wind speed, suggesting that the original MPI tends to overestimate wind speed relative to pressure, or conversely underestimate pressure relative to wind speed. Examining the RMSE improvement rate under future climate scenarios, the most significant improvement was observed for wind speed in the atmospheric model CM-HR using the TRACK algorithm, with an improvement of approximately 80%. On average, the RMSE was reduced by approximately 60% across all climate models, demonstrating a substantial improvement in the representation of typhoon intensity—a critical input for Maximum Potential Storm Surge calculations. 3.4. Sensitivity Analysis of the MPS Model A decay function for typhoon intensity after its LMI and before landfall was incorporated into the existing MPS model. This study investigated the sensitivity of MPS to the latitudinal limit of the LMI and typhoon translation speed, both of which are arbitrary parameters in conventional typhoon intensity decay formulations. The color bar in Fig. 7 represents the variation in MPS corresponding to changes in typhoon translation speed (vertical axis) from 5 m/s to 15 m/s and in the northern limit of the LMI (horizontal axis) from 30°N to 40°N in the WNP. In calculating the changes in MPS, the reference case assumes the LMI northern limit of 30°N and a typhoon translation speed of 10 m/s. Parameters required for estimating MPS were adopted from existing studies focused on Tokyo Bay. Furthermore, the initial typhoon intensity at an LMI latitude of 30°N and a translation speed of 5 m/s was set to 50 m/s, and variations in typhoon intensity were computed based on changes in both LMI latitude and translation speed. In Fig. 7 , red shading indicates values greater than the reference MPS, whereas blue shading denotes values smaller than the reference. As the northern limit of LMI shifts poleward, the decay distance of typhoon intensity becomes shorter. Therefore, at a fixed translation speed, the magnitude of MPS tends to increase. Conversely, when the translation speed increases at a constant LMI latitude, the time available for intensity decay decreases, also leading to an increase in MPS. These findings indicate that in the MPS model used in this study, wherein the typhoon intensity decay process is explicitly considered, MPS is highly sensitive to both the typhoon’s translation speed and the latitudinal location of its lifetime maximum intensity. 3.5 Estimation and Optimization of the wind-induced parameter To determine the wind-induced surge term under steady-state conditions, it is essential to estimate the bay constant K in the MPS model (Mori et al., 2021, 2022). The bay constant K represents the sea surface roughness coefficient, which varies with wind speed and lower-atmospheric stability and is often expressed as a function of wind speed. In the MPS framework, the worst-case scenario for wind-induced surge is assumed to occur under steady-state conditions, and the wind contribution is derived from dynamical equilibrium. However, to validate this assumption, calibration of the bay constant K through numerical modeling is required. For this purpose, the high-resolution large ensemble experiment d4PDF 5 km (Kawase et al., 2023) was employed as meteorological forcing, while storm surge simulations conducted with ADCIRC (Pringle et al., 2021) were used to tune the bay constant K . ADCIRC is an unstructured finite-element model that solves the nonlinear long-wave equation and the continuity equation as governing equations. It has been widely applied in both localized inundation assessments and global-scale storm surge projections. In this study, a triangular unstructured mesh with resolutions ranging from 0.2 km to 24 km was used, comprising approximately 1.73 million elements and 900,000 grid points. Open boundary conditions were applied to the ocean-facing edges, and no-flux conditions at the landward boundaries. The d4PDF dataset includes both a 720-year historical experiment and a 720-year + 4K global warming scenario. Although the sea surface drag coefficient Cd generally varies with wind speed and atmospheric stability, conventional MPS models often assume a constant value for Cd for simplicity. In contrast, this study employs a wind-speed-dependent formulation of Cd based on Garratt (1977) to improve the accuracy of K estimation. The orientation of the bay axis, along which storm surge effects are most pronounced, can be inferred from dynamical model outputs. For simplicity, the MPS model represents each bay as a rectangular channel, with the axis connecting the bay mouth to the deepest point regarded as the main bay axis. However, this simplification may not capture the actual direction in which the maximum surge develops. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology to objectively determine the optimal bay axis for the wind-induced surge using ADCIRC outputs, thereby minimizing subjective decisions and enhancing reproducibility. The method for determining the bay constant K in this study is as follows: The wind-induced surge was extracted from ADCIRC simulations for each 45-degree wind direction. The three cases exhibiting the highest linear correlation with the MPS model were selected. For each selected case, the bay axis was rotated in 1-degree increments until it aligned with the wind direction. The optimal bay axis was identified by maximizing the integral of the reciprocal of water depth along the axis. For each candidate bay axis direction, the coefficient of determination R² between the wind-induced surge from ADCIRC and the MPS model was calculated. The axis yielding the highest R² was adopted for the MPS calculation. In this process, the wind direction most influential to the wind-induced surge was used as a reference to iteratively determine the bay axis and the corresponding bay constant K. This approach effectively eliminated arbitrariness and enabled automated, data-driven calibration of K . Additionally, incorporating a wind-speed-dependent drag coefficient further improved the fidelity of the model. For example, in the case of Osaka Bay, the integral of the inverse water depth along the newly selected bay axis was 1.09 times greater than that in previous studies. As a result, the coefficient of determination R² improved by approximately 40%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method in improving the accuracy of MPS predictions. 3.6 Projection for Future Changes in MPS In this study, we conducted future projections of Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) for 49 bays. These projections incorporated the newly introduced concept of the LMI to account for the attenuation process of typhoon intensity north of the LMI, as well as bay constants calculated based on the bay axis direction determined by principal axis rotation, taking into account the drag coefficient Cd . Figure 8 presents the projected MPS and its change under future climate conditions for all 49 bays analyzed in this study, based on both AGCM (red) and AOGCM (blue). Regardless of ocean coupling, the highest median MPS was observed in Mikawa Bay, with values of 6.5 m under AGCM and 6.7 m under AOGCM as shown in Fig. 8 (a) . Comparisons among individual bays, such as between Osaka Bay, Sakai, and Kobe, or between Ise Bay and Tsu, reveal minimal differences in the overall distribution of MPS in the box plots. In Osaka Bay, only the Sakai case exhibited a relatively lower distribution compared to Osaka and Kobe, likely due to its position at the innermost part of the bay. In contrast, for Tokyo Bay, the distribution of MPS was nearly twice as large when the bay head was defined on the Tokyo side, rather than the Chiba side, as in previous studies. This discrepancy is mainly attributed to differences in the bay constant K , which influences the estimation of wind-induced surge. The bay constant K for the Tokyo side was approximately 1.6 times greater than that for the Chiba side, significantly affecting the resulting MPS distribution. Figure 8 (b) shows the projected changes in MPS, calculated as the difference between the future and present climate means, for each bay. Results from AGCM and AOGCM are shown in red and blue, respectively, similar to Fig. 8 . In bays where only the pressure-induced surge was considered, excluding the wind-induced surge, no significant change in MPS was observed. However, in bays where both effects were included, the projected change in MPS was notably larger, as reflected by greater vertical spreads of the box plots. This suggests that the wind-induced component will play a dominant role in future MPS changes. In terms of median change, the largest projected increase in MPS occurred in Shanghai, regardless of ocean coupling: approximately 30 cm under AGCM and 1.1 m under AOGCM. In Mikawa Bay, Ariake Sea, and Shanghai, where absolute MPS values were also high, the vertical spread of MPS change was larger than in other bays, regardless of the model type. This suggests a higher degree of uncertainty in future MPS projections for these bays. Furthermore, the vertical spread of the box plots in Fig. 8 was generally greater for AOGCM than for AGCM, implying that inter-model variability in SST and its impact on MPI is directly reflected in the variability of MPS projections. Future MPI increases were also larger under AOGCM than AGCM, primarily due to differences in SST distributions between the two model groups. Since MPI is highly correlated with SST, it typically decreases (i.e., central pressure increases) with latitude from south to north. However, in AOGCM, this spatial pattern is not consistently observed. The increased future MPS projections under AOGCM compared to AGCM, as seen in Fig. 8 (a) , can be attributed to the bay-scale variability in MPS under AOGCM. Although averaging tends to reduce this variability, the deviations from the mean remain significant, directly affecting the projected changes at the bay scale. Therefore, regional differences in bay-scale MPI under AOGCM, amplified by the specific GCM used, result in larger variances and projected changes in MPS. Given the importance of the temporal evolution of MPS, representative bays were selected to illustrate these changes. Figure 9 presents the time series of MPS from 2000 to 2050 for Osaka Bay and Shanghai as examples. The color scheme distinguishes between model types: red hues indicate results from AGCM, while blue hues represent those from AOGCM. Thin lines denote monthly MPS values for each typhoon season and individual model; dotted lines represent the ensemble mean across models, and bold lines depict the 10-year moving average of these ensemble means. The shaded background areas indicate 95% confidence intervals. Each plot includes a legend showing the linear trend under future climate conditions. In Osaka Bay, MPS increases by approximately 20 cm per decade under AGCM and by about 50 cm per decade under AOGCM. The most pronounced linear trend was observed in Shanghai, regardless of model type, where MPS increases exceeded 50 cm per decade for AGCM and 70 cm per decade for AOGCM. These results suggest that, by around 2050, a relatively near-future timeframe, storm surges may reach 1.5 to 2.0 meters higher than present-day levels. In terms of absolute MPS values projected by 2050, Tokyo Bay is expected to exceed 3 m, Ise Bay over 4 m, and Osaka Bay over 5 m. These values substantially exceed the highest storm surges historically observed in these regions: 1.22 m in Tokyo Bay during Typhoon No. 20 (October 1979), 3.50 m in Ise Bay during the Ise Bay Typhoon (September 1959), and 2.77 m in Osaka Bay during Typhoon Jebi (September 2018). Since MPS represents the theoretical upper bound of storm surge potential for each bay, additional analysis is needed to estimate the actual likelihood of such events materializing. Among the bays analyzed, Shanghai exhibited the most pronounced upward trend in MPS. By 2050, projections indicate MPS values of over 4 m under AGCM and over 8 m under AOGCM. Furthermore, Shanghai showed substantial inter-model variability, especially in AOGCM. This is largely due to its geographical location near 30°N, where the attenuation distance of typhoon intensity has historically been short. In future climates, the attenuation process may not be fully captured during storm development. A comparison of time series trends between AGCM and AOGCM shows generally higher MPS under AOGCM. While large-scale averages of MPI over broad regions, such as the WNP, suggest weaker MPI values under AOGCM due to ocean mixing and SST cooling from typhoon passage, this trend often reverses at the bay scale. The higher MPS values in AOGCM indicate greater spatial variability in MPI at specific locations. In contrast, under AGCM, SST is fixed across models, resulting in a relatively uniform north-south gradient of MPI, with higher values typically in the south. However, in AOGCM, this gradient is not always consistent, and some models can reproduce ocean currents such as the Kuroshio, leading to situations where MPI near the Japanese archipelago exceeds that at lower latitudes near 30°N. In summary, using an MPS-based modeling approach, future changes in potential maximum storm surge were projected for 49 bays along the Japanese coast and throughout East Asia. Major bays in East Asia, where wind-induced surges are pronounced, exhibited a clear upward trend in MPS. These findings highlight the critical importance of incorporating not only projected sea level rise but also the evolving characteristics of storm surges in future climate conditions into coastal adaptation strategies. 4. Conclusion In this study, the future evolution of the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) along the coastlines of Japan and East Asia was comprehensively assessed using the MPS model, a climatological framework grounded in the theoretical upper limit for typhoon intensity, as originally proposed by Mori et al. (2021, 2022). The analysis employed both atmospheric-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs from the HighResMIP experiment, a coordinated ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, thereby enabling a systematic investigation of the influence of ocean coupling on future storm surge projections. A key advancement in the MPS modeling framework involved the integration of a typhoon intensity decay parameterization based on storm translation speed. This modification mitigates spatial discrepancies between theoretical MPI values and the actual intensities derived from typhoon track data, a known limitation in previous modeling approaches. Furthermore, the MPS model was automated and refined to objectively define bay geometries and incorporate physically meaningful parameters governing surge generation, thereby enhancing both the transparency and reproducibility of the modeling procedure. The capacity of GCMs to reproduce typhoon characteristics reinforces the validity of MPI as an estimate of the theoretical upper limit of typhoon intensity. This is particularly relevant given that even the track data generated by HighResMIP models fail to capture intense typhoons with lifetime maximum intensities (LMI) exceeding 33 m/s. This study identifies and quantifies spatial inconsistencies between MPI estimates and model-derived LMI, and proposes a correction method to reconcile them. Importantly, it highlights a fundamental conceptual divergence: while MPI represents a thermodynamic upper limit, it does not account for the dynamic life cycle of typhoons, specifically the phases of intensification, stalling, and decay along their trajectories. As a result, MPI often overestimates actual typhoon intensity, particularly at higher latitudes in the WNP. To address this limitation, the MPS model was enhanced by incorporating an intensity-decay scheme into the MPI framework. Track data from HighResMIP models reveal a potential northward shift of up to four degrees latitude in the northern boundary of LMI occurrence under future climate conditions. Incorporating the decay process into MPI estimations improved the model’s representation of typhoon intensity by up to 80%, with a mean improvement of 60%, when compared with track-derived intensity data. This enhancement significantly strengthens the applicability of MPI-based approaches to storm surge modeling under both current and projected climate scenarios. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to calibrate the MPS model with respect to wind-induced surge processes. Results indicated that the MPS is highly sensitive to the total decay distance of MPI. Key surge parameters were tuned using the bay constant K , referencing outputs from the high-resolution hydrodynamic model ADCIRC, driven by 5-km d4PDF atmospheric forcing dataset. The bay constant was modeled as a function of wind speed, an innovation not adopted in prior studies, yielding theoretical consistency between the MPS model and dynamic surge simulations. The orientation of each bay’s principal axis was determined based on the direction of maximum surge development, as derived from dynamic model outputs. This approach enabled the objective determination of both bay axes and bay constants, aligning fully with the conceptual underpinnings of the MPS framework. In the case of Osaka Bay, the newly defined bay axis showed approximately 40% better agreement with dynamic model results than previous delineations. A total of 49 bays were systematically identified and analyzed: 44 along the Pacific coast of Japan, one along the Sea of Japan, and four in East Asia outside Japan. Future changes in MPS were projected for all bays using both AGCM and AOGCM ensembles. The results indicate that wind-induced surges contribute more substantially to MPS than pressure-induced components, with the bay constant K emerging as a key determinant of surge magnitude. Projections using AOGCM revealed pronounced inter-model variability in SST, leading to spatial heterogeneity in MPI projections at the bay scale. Consistently, the AOGCM ensembles produced larger MPI increases than the AGCM ensembles, a pattern that was also evident in MPS projections. By 2050, MPS values are projected to exceed 3 m in Tokyo Bay, 4 m in Ise Bay, and 5 m in Osaka Bay. The steepest linear increase in MPS was observed in Shanghai, with a trend of approximately 0.7 m per decade. Shanghai also recorded the largest median increase in MPS, reaching 1.1 m under the AOGCM ensembles. These findings provide compelling evidence of a pronounced upward trend in storm surge potential across key East Asian bays, which are densely populated and economically critical regions. The results underscore the necessity of integrating projections of future storm surge behavior, along with sea level rise, into regional coastal adaptation planning and risk management strategies. Declarations -Ethics approval and consent to participate : Not applicable -Consent for publication : Not applicable -Competing Interests : Not applicable -Author contributions : Shun Ito conducted the main research and drafted the manuscript. Tomoya Shimura and Takuya Miyashita provided comments and suggestions to improve the study. Nobuhito Mori supervised the research topic and the overall study. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. -Funding : This work was conducted by Theme 4 of the Advanced Studies of Climate Change Projection (SENTAN Program) Grant Number JPMXD0722678534 supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and This work was supported by MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI (23H00196), Japan. -Availability of data and materials : This study is based entirely on analyses of publicly available open datasets. No new data were generated or collected for this research. Acknowledgement This work was conducted by Theme 4 of the Advanced Studies of Climate Change Projection (SENTAN Program) Grant Number JPMXD0722678534 supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and This work was supported by MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI (23H00196), Japan. References Atkinson, G. D., and Holliday, C. R.: Tropical cyclone minimum sea level pressure/maximum sustained wind relationship for the western North Pacific. Monthly Weather Review, 105(4), 421–427, 1977 . Bister, M., and Emanuel, K.: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity, 1, Interannual to interdecadal variability. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(D24), 4801, ACL26-1–ACL26-15, 2002. Garratt, J. R.: Review of drag coefficients over oceans and continents. Monthly Weather Review, 105(7), 915–929, 1977. GEBCO Compilation Group: GEBCO 2020 Grid (doi:10.5285/a29c5465-b138-234d-e053-6c86abc040b9), 2020. Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. 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Mori, S., Shimura, T., Miyashita, T., Webb, A., & Mori, N.: Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia. Coastal Engineering Journal, 64(4), 630–647, 2022. Pringle, W. J., Wirasaet, D., Roberts, K. J., & Westerink, J. J.: Global storm tide modeling with ADCIRC v55: unstructured mesh design and performance. Geoscientific Model Development, 14(2), 1125–1145, 2021. Proudman, J.: The effects on the sea of changes in atmospheric pressure. Geophysical Journal International, 2, 197–209, 1929. Roberts, M. J., Camp, J., Seddon, J., Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K., Vanniere, B., ... & Ullrich, P.: Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA multimodel ensemble. Journal of Climate, 33(7), 2557–2583, 2020. Roberts, M. J., Camp, J., Seddon, J., Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K., Vannière, B., ... & Wu, L.: Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(14), e2020GL088662, 2020. Sroka, S., and Emanuel, K.: A review of parameterizations for enthalpy and momentum fluxes from sea spray in tropical cyclones. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 51(10), 3053–3069, 2021. Wang, S., and Toumi, R.: On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 3288, 2022. Table Table 1: The list of datasets in this study, CMIP6 HighResMIP Supplementary Files AppendixA.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revise 13 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 01 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 12 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 11 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":111369,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFrequency of strong typhoons (Lifetime Maximum Intensity is 33 m/s or higher) as a function of SLP and latitude in the Western North Pacific Ocean based on IBTrACS (the color bar indicates the number of data points at that location)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/61798a97a274458e9ee36637.png"},{"id":97337238,"identity":"bad01427-260a-463e-bb42-03d84f481aaf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-03 10:29:32","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":121142,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFrequency of strong typhoons as a function of SLP and latitude in the WNP based on HighResMIP of Atmospheric Global Climate Model by TRACK method extraction\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/1a214a788cad30c5f8f54e80.png"},{"id":97337245,"identity":"3b8a2258-b49f-4f62-9fae-94d0c3d5526f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-03 10:29:32","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":191696,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTheoretical upper limit of typhoon intensity (solid line) and lifetime maximum intensity (dot) of typhoon track of IBTrACS in Western North Pacific of typhoon seasons (July to October) (plus mark: the maximum typhoon intensity within each latitude band, asterisk mark: average of the top 10% strongest typhoons intensity, dashed line: MPI introduced decay equation by Wang and Toumi (2022))\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/31cd9940edf0c16fbf08b514.png"},{"id":97370326,"identity":"41436d7e-6e52-4336-a43f-c16d52aecbcb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-03 16:27:10","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":244709,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe position of Lifetime Maximum Intensity in IBTrACS (color bar indicates wind speed of LMI, red line: 95% confidence interval when fitted to normal distribution)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/73803e60fcbdc5f72e69ba77.png"},{"id":97337240,"identity":"09cccd74-47b3-48f3-8b04-43a0673a7730","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-03 10:29:32","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":152138,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTyphoon intensity decays after maximum development and before landfall (thin black lines: observed intensity decay paths of individual typhoons from LMI to LI, thick black line: A second-order polynomial fit to these observational decay paths, red line: the result of the decay equation)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/87d12f5bde4ec62ff5850d43.png"},{"id":97337241,"identity":"bdcc79b2-86d9-46c2-944b-8f7bec5b5ae7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-03 10:29:32","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":101315,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eImprovement of MPI by introducing latitudinal decay (horizontal axis: the change in RMSE (before minus after the attenuation effect) for the historical climate simulations, vertical axis: the improvement rate of RMSE in the future climate\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/47b134d20e2d4800847fb12e.png"},{"id":97371122,"identity":"bb949a6e-ba56-46c1-9ee2-66b230e1b1ac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-03 16:28:25","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":174398,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSensitivity of MPS after bias correction based on decay equation\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/df37dd883277f749b42ed001.png"},{"id":97370142,"identity":"4eeb8472-bd69-4151-b899-78c57c538f8b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-03 16:26:48","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":181841,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMPS along East Asia in future climate (red: AGCM, blue: AOGCM, *: model ensemble-mean MPS)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/e93a9feba16c3bf1498e0bc1.png"},{"id":97369423,"identity":"dd3ce19f-c336-42ea-b7a6-915743400afd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-03 16:24:53","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"Figure 9","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":236215,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTime-series of MPS from 2000 to 2050 (red: AGCM, blue: AOGCM, thin lines: monthly MPS values corresponding to each typhoon season for individual models, dotted lines: the ensemble mean across models, bold lines: the 10-year moving average of these ensemble means, and shaded background: 95% confidence intervals.)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/9deb72f3c6c0de2a8b45d40f.png"},{"id":97373165,"identity":"1b39e08e-668b-4239-b7df-266b533f6602","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-03 16:34:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2096733,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/edbf5ee2-6ccc-43a0-a274-475dfb2b454b.pdf"},{"id":97337246,"identity":"913a03b3-eed4-47c2-85eb-add9b84d716a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-03 10:29:32","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2528079,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"AppendixA.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8078435/v1/bc898a29e40a5b0dff4718fb.docx"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Future Projection of Maximum Potential Storm Surge along East Asia based on CMIP6 HighResMIP","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn recent years, global warming has been increasingly recognized as a driver of diverse environmental transformations extending beyond mere temperature increases and sea level rise. Among these transformations, the intensification of typhoons \u0026mdash;a meteorological phenomenon capable of inducing severe natural disasters\u0026mdash; has emerged as a critical concern, particularly regarding its influence on storm surges (Mori and Takemi, 2016). Although storm surges associated with typhoons occur less frequently than those triggered by strong winds and heavy rainfall, their impacts can be disproportionately destructive. This risk is exacerbated by the geographical vulnerability of Japan\u0026rsquo;s major metropolitan areas, which are predominantly situated in low-lying coastal zones. In light of these situations, long-term assessments of climate-related risks and the formulation of disaster mitigation strategies have become imperative.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe increasing threat of storm surges is primarily attributed to two interrelated factors: sea level rise resulting from thermal expansion and the intensification of tropical cyclones, commonly referred to as typhoons. Sea level rise represents a static, persistent modification of coastal baselines, while typhoon intensification constitutes a dynamic meteorological change. The manifestation and severity of storm surges are contingent not only upon the frequency of typhoon occurrences in Japan, but also upon typhoon-specific parameters such as size, trajectory, and propagation speed. Nonetheless, due to the relatively low incidence of storm surges compared to typhoons themselves, accurately projecting future changes poses a considerable scientific challenge. On average, only a limited number of typhoons make landfall in Japan each year, and storm surges occur even more infrequently. Given their infrequent occurrence but high potential impact, historical observational records alone are insufficient to reliably assess their frequency and intensity from a disaster preparedness perspective. To address this challenge, climatological methodologies have been employed to enhance the robustness of predictive frameworks. In particular, large-scale ensemble climate simulations have been conducted to increase the number of realizations, thereby improving the statistical representation of future climate scenarios while incorporating uncertainty estimates (Mizuta et al., 2017). Despite these methodological advancements, computational constraints continue to pose significant limitations. As ensemble simulations expand in both scope and temporal resolution, the precise quantification of region-specific phenomena, such as storm surges within individual bays, remains challenging due to the substantial computational resources required.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eMori et al. (2021, 2022) developed the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) model, which enables a seamless evaluation of storm surge anomalies by linking atmospheric and oceanic climate fields to localized storm surge responses within specific bays. This model focuses exclusively on storm surge intensity, providing a framework for assessing the potential impacts of global warming on storm surges. Utilizing outputs from global climate models, the MPS approach estimates the maximum possible storm surge magnitudes under worst-case scenarios, accounting for the influence of anthropogenic warming and intensified typhoon activity. One of the primary advantages of this methodology lies in its ability to produce climatologically consistent results at a relatively low computational cost, despite the underlying complexity of the calculations involved. However, the model\u0026rsquo;s reliance on the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) theory introduces certain limitations. Specifically, MPI represents the theoretical upper bound of cyclone development for a given environmental condition, which may not accurately capture the spatial and temporal variations in typhoon intensity observed. As typhoons typically undergo significant fluctuations in intensity during their lifecycle and movement, the modeled distribution of storm surge intensity may diverge from actual historical or observed events, raising concerns about the reliability of the MPS model's outputs. Furthermore, the model incorporates a subjective definition of bay boundaries and employs a wind-induced parameter based on theoretical assumptions, both of which suggest areas that require further refinement. These aspects underscore the necessity for ongoing model validation and enhancement to improve the accuracy and applicability of storm surge projections under future climate scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBuilding on the aforementioned background, this study evaluates the theoretical maximum storm surge using a climatological approach, developed through the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) model. The analysis is grounded in the HighResMIP (High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project) experiment of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), which employs both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere\u0026ndash;ocean simulations derived from a suite of high-resolution global climate models. To leverage the advantages of the MPI-based approach, which, in contrast to statistical methods, is independent of factors such as typhoon frequency, this study aims to provide a more quantitative evaluation of future changes in typhoon intensity. A key enhancement of the MPS model in this research involves integrating a typhoon intensity decay process during storm movement, a dynamic previously unaccounted for in earlier versions of the model. Additionally, parameters related to wind-induced surges have been refined and automated to increase the model\u0026rsquo;s robustness, consistency, and broader applicability. Finally, future changes in maximum potential storm surge are projected for 49 target locations: 44 along the Pacific coast of Japan, one along the Sea of Japan, and four additional sites in East Asia outside Japan.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Methodology","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.1 Theoretical framework\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn the MPI\u0026ndash;MPS framework proposed by Mori et al. (2021, 2022), the theoretical maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) under given environmental conditions is first estimated using the theory developed by Emanuel et al. (2002). The MPI, characterized by the minimum central pressure (\u003cem\u003eP\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003em\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e) and the maximum wind speed (\u003cem\u003eV\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003em\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e), is derived based on inputs such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), and vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity. The governing equations are as follows:\u003cdiv id=\"Equa\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equa\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:\\begin{array}{c}{{V}_{m}}^{2}=\\frac{{C}_{k}}{{C}_{D}}\\frac{{T}_{S}}{{T}_{0}}\\left({{\\text{C}\\text{A}\\text{P}\\text{E}}_{m}}^{\\text{*}}-{\\text{C}\\text{A}\\text{P}\\text{E}}_{env}\\right)\\#\\left(1\\right)\\end{array}$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Equb\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equb\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:\\begin{array}{c}{R}_{d}{T}_{S}ln\\frac{{P}_{env}}{{P}_{m}}=\\frac{1}{2}{{V}_{m}}^{2}+\\left({\\text{C}\\text{A}\\text{P}\\text{E}}_{m}-{\\text{C}\\text{A}\\text{P}\\text{E}}_{env}\\right)\\#\\left(2\\right)\\end{array}$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ewhere \u003cem\u003eTs\u003c/em\u003e is the sea surface temperature, \u003cem\u003eT\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e0\u003c/sub\u003e is the tropopause temperature, CAPE is convective available potential energy, \u003cem\u003eC\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003eD\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e and \u003cem\u003eC\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ek\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e are the momentum and heat exchange coefficients at the sea surface, and \u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ed\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e is the gas constant for dry air. Superscript \u003cem\u003e*\u003c/em\u003e means the saturated condition, subscript \u003cem\u003em\u003c/em\u003e means the value of RMW (Radius of Maximum Wind speed), and subscript \u003cem\u003eenv\u003c/em\u003e is the environmental field value. In the MPI\u0026ndash;MPS framework, each bay\u0026rsquo;s theoretical upper limit of storm surge height is estimated from the MPI. Pressure-induced and wind-induced storm surge heights were individually calculated, assuming the worst-case TC track, a steady-state, and the TC translation speeds with the long-wave velocity in the bay.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ePressure-induced surges occur when the translation speed of TCs (\u003cem\u003eV\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003eT\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e) approaches the long wave velocity (\u003cem\u003eC\u003c/em\u003e) in the bay, indicating the occurrence of Proudman resonance (Proudman, 1929) is expected. Assuming that a pressure wave of \u003cem\u003e∆P\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;ϕ(t - x/C)\u003c/em\u003e travels along the channel from the entrance (\u003cem\u003ex\u003c/em\u003e\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0) of a one-dimensional channel with depth \u003cem\u003eh\u003c/em\u003e connecting to the sea, a pressure-induced surge \u003cem\u003eζ\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ep\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e is given as\u003cdiv id=\"Equc\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equc\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:\\begin{array}{c}{\\left({\\zeta\\:}_{p}\\right)}_{{V}_{T}\\to\\:C}=\\frac{1}{{\\rho\\:}_{w}g}\\left\\{\\varphi\\:\\left(t-\\frac{x}{C}\\right)-\\frac{x}{2C}{\\varphi\\:}^{{\\prime\\:}}\\left(t-\\frac{x}{C}\\right)\\right\\}\\#\\left(3\\right)\\end{array}$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ewhere \u003cem\u003eρ\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ew\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e is the seawater density and \u003cem\u003eg\u003c/em\u003e is the acceleration of gravity. Pressure-induced surges are estimated using Myers\u0026rsquo; parametric TC pressure distribution in Eq.\u0026nbsp;(3). Wind-induced surges occur when the wind blows toward the shore for a long time and reaches a steady state. Considering the balance between wind stress and gravitational force, a wind-induced surge \u003cem\u003eζ\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ew\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e is given as\u003cdiv id=\"Equd\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equd\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:\\begin{array}{c}\\frac{d{\\zeta\\:}_{w}}{dx}=\\frac{{\\rho\\:}_{a}}{{\\rho\\:}_{w}g}\\bullet\\:\\frac{K}{h\\left(x\\right)}\\bullet\\:{U}^{2}\\#\\left(4\\right)\\end{array}$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003ewhere \u003cem\u003eρ\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ew\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e is the air density, \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e is the tuning parameter of a dynamical model, \u003cem\u003eh\u003c/em\u003e is the water depth, and \u003cem\u003eU\u003c/em\u003e is the wind speed. The MPS can now be estimated as a linear combination of pressure-induced and wind-induced surges.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe proposed approach offers several advantages for assessing storm surges. It allows the prediction of worst-case storm surge scenarios while maintaining relatively low computational costs. By incorporating the concept of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the method effectively reduces uncertainty in tropical cyclone intensity and integrates climatological knowledge derived from MPI theory. Furthermore, it offers a practical alternative in cases where even high-resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) are insufficient to reproduce the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones accurately.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHowever, several limitations should be noted. The MPI framework does not account for intensity decay associated with cyclone translation, and in certain latitude bands, MPI does not necessarily represent the upper bound of observed cyclone intensity. In addition, the estimation of the wind setup parameter (topographic parameter \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e) in the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) model is currently performed manually. Developing a semi-automated method to estimate this parameter would therefore be a valuable step toward enhancing model efficiency and reproducibility.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.2 Date set\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis study employs climatic data from the HighResMIP (High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project; Haarsma et al., 2016) experiment within CMIP6, which was specifically evaluated for TC performance in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), as summarized in \u003cb\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;1\u003c/b\u003e. The dataset targets the intercomparison of future TC intensities under the RCP8.5 emission scenario over the period from 1950 to 2050. High-resolution global climate simulations were employed to evaluate the impact of atmosphere\u0026ndash;ocean coupling, encompassing both atmospheric-only Global Climate Models (AGCMs) and fully coupled Atmosphere\u0026ndash;Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs). AGCMs were forced with observationally derived SSTs that were consistent across models, whereas AOGCMs used model-specific SST projections. Comparative analyses were conducted to evaluate differences in projected TC intensity and associated storm surge potential between the two modeling frameworks.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Results and Discussion","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.1 Representation of Typhoons in HighResMIP\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe utilize the track data from HighResMIP, as analyzed by Roberts et al. (2020a). Four GCMs, HadGEM3-GC31, CNRM-CM6-1, CMCC-CM2, and MRI-AGCM3.2, were used as track data for HighResMIP. Considering two variations in tracking methods and resolutions, a total of 14 models are used in \u003cb\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;1\u003c/b\u003e. Typhoons were extracted from six-hourly data for the period from 1950 to 2050. As also shown by Roberts et al. (2020a), there are two methods for extracting typhoons from the GCMs: the TRACK and TempestExtremes methods. The TRACK method utilizes relative vorticity as a tracking variable in the HighResMIP, whereas the TempestExtremes method employs sea-level pressure. In the TRACK method, the same grid is used for typhoons across all models. The number of tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones in the TRACK method was adjusted to match the observations. On the other hand, the TempestExtremes method is extracted from the original grid of the climate model. Unlike the TRACK method, this approach is tuned to reduce the detection of weak tropical cyclones.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe sensitivity of two different TC track datasets was examined first. First, the statistical accuracy of HighResMIP track data in representing typhoons was confirmed with IBTrACS data. From the perspective of storm surge calculation, the analysis domain of the track data was limited to the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP; 100\u0026ndash;180\u0026deg;E, 0\u0026ndash;60\u0026deg;N). Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e shows the frequency of strong typhoons (LMI; Lifetime Maximum Intensity is 33 m/s or higher) in the WNP based on IBTrACS. The vertical axis represents the latitudinal band from 0\u0026deg;N to 60\u0026deg;N in the WNP, and the horizontal axis represents the atmospheric pressure. The color bar in the figure indicates the number of data points at that location. As the color of the bar approaches dark red, the number of typhoon intensities in that latitude zone is high. The distribution of typhoon intensity (atmospheric pressure) shows that typhoons with intensities as high as 900 hPa are primarily distributed around 20\u0026deg;N. At high latitudes, such as 40\u0026deg;N, typhoon intensity does not appear in the figure. This result is consistent with Roberts et al (2020a), who found that the peak of the intensity density distribution is generally located in the 10\u0026deg;N to 30\u0026deg;N band, indicating the validity of this analysis. The reproducibility of typhoon intensity from HighResMIP track data is also confirmed by comparing the results with those of IBTrACS.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe examined the frequency of strong typhoons extracted by the TRACK method in the HighResMIP of the Atmospheric Global Climate Model, AGCM, shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e. Typhoons stronger than 920 hPa were not reproduced for HHM. The northern boundary of lifetime maximum intensities (LMI) for HighResMIP track data is considerably farther north than that for IBTrACS. The other models, CN-HR and CM-HR, reproduce typhoons stronger than 920 hPa; however, their latitudinal distribution is approximately 5 degrees north of the IBTrACS results. As shown in \u003cb\u003eAppendix A-1\u003c/b\u003e, results from a suite of atmosphere-ocean coupled models analyzed using the same tracking method reveal that, within the same GCMs, no typhoons with intensities stronger than 920 hPa are detected in the coupled simulations, in contrast to the results from the atmosphere-only models. This suggests that coupling atmospheric and oceanic processes induces phenomena such as ocean mixing and sea surface temperature (SST) cooling following typhoon passage, which act to suppress storm intensification. In the CM-HR simulation, while typhoons with central pressures below 940 hPa are reproduced, similarly to the atmosphere-only model, the strong cyclones continue to migrate northward, maintaining high intensities even in high-latitude regions such as 50\u0026deg;N and 60\u0026deg;N. The results obtained using another tracking method and TempestExtremes are presented in \u003cb\u003eAppendix A-2\u003c/b\u003e. A similar trend can be observed with TRACK. This represents a current limitation in the model\u0026rsquo;s ability to reproduce typhoons within the HighResMIP dataset. It was confirmed that the current representation of strong typhoons is inadequate even when using the track data from the highest-resolution GCM. Therefore, following the previous studies such as Mori et al. (2021, 2022), the MPI is confirmed to be useful in estimating the upper limit of typhoon intensity in a manner independent of spatial resolution and tracking method.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.2 Empirical Decay Equation for MPI\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe MPI represents the maximum potential value of typhoon intensity for a given environmental field. However, MPI does not account for the effect of movement, resulting in an intensity gap when comparing the MPI at a given location with a typhoon\u0026rsquo;s lifetime maximum intensity. To investigate this further, we compared typhoon intensities across different latitude bands in WNP during the peak typhoon season (July to October) using IBTrACS. In Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e, the MPI is shown as calculated using JRA-55 (Kobayashi et al., 2015), where the horizontal axis indicates latitude in the WNP, while the left and right vertical axes indicate central pressures and wind speeds, respectively. For the IBTrACS data, the maximum typhoon intensity within each latitude band is indicated by a cross mark +, where the average of the top 10% strongest typhoons is selected as an indicator, for instance, indicated by an asterisk *. The MPI in the solid line, as shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e, is latitudinally averaged within each latitude band. From the perspective of its theoretical definition, MPI should be above the upper limit of typhoon intensity. In terms of wind speed, MPI generally encompasses the upper bound of observed typhoon intensities up to 30\u0026deg;N; however, this agreement breaks down at latitudes north of 30\u0026deg;N. The main reason for this is that the MPI theory itself cannot account for the effects of typhoon movement. As a result, MPI cannot represent the process of a typhoon moving northward while maintaining its intensity. Although this theoretical\u0026ndash;observational gap is not problematic in itself, it poses challenges when applying the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) model. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e shows that the MPI currently used for storm surge calculations underestimates the actual typhoon intensity, especially in the mid-latitudes and northward around Japan. Therefore, this study updates the MPS model by incorporating the typhoon intensity decay process associated with typhoon movement.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo reduce the systematic underestimation of the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) that may result from using the MPI near bays, we incorporate the effect of typhoon advection into the MPS model. This approach aims to better reproduce MPI values that are more representative of local conditions. Wang and Toumi (2022) successfully captured the weakening process of typhoons over the ocean between their peak development and landfall. By integrating this weakening process, associated with typhoon movement, into the MPS model, it becomes possible to account for advection-modified MPS. Based on Wang and Toumi (2022), the following attenuation formula describes the reduction in typhoon intensity from the Lifetime Maximum Intensity (LMI) to the Landfall Intensity (LI);\u003cdiv id=\"Eque\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Eque\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:\\begin{array}{c}\\frac{1}{LI}=\\frac{1}{LMI}{e}^{-\\alpha\\:T}-\\frac{\\kappa\\:}{\\alpha\\:}({e}^{-\\alpha\\:T}-1)\\#\\left(5\\right)\\end{array}$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eHere, \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:\\alpha\\:\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e (=\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:2.2\\times\\:{10}^{-7}{\\text{m}}^{-1}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e) is the typhoon intensity attenuation coefficient, and \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:\\kappa\\:\\:\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e(=\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:3.1\\times\\:{10}^{-6}{\\text{s}}^{-1}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e) is an empirically tuned attenuation parameter derived from observational data. \u003cem\u003eT\u003c/em\u003e denotes the total decay distance. Both LI and LMI represent wind speed. According to Wang and Toumi (2022), the equation reproduces well the decay of typhoon intensity over the ocean after LMI and before LI. The equation mainly depends on the total decay time T. In other words, the typhoon's translation speed and the total decay distance are the main factors governing the typhoon intensity decay.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo apply the typhoon intensity attenuation equation to the MPS model, the typhoon translation speed and total attenuation distance, which remain arbitrary in the equation, are investigated based on IBTrACS data. As demonstrated by Wang and Toumi (2022), the variable with the highest sensitivity in the decay equation is the total decay distance. Determining this total decay distance requires identifying the locations corresponding to the LMI and the point just prior to landfall. When applying the decay equation to the MPS model, the pre-landfall location is defined as the target bay under analysis. In contrast, the location of LMI must be determined separately. Following the approach of Wang and Toumi (2022), strong typhoons with LMI wind speeds equal to or greater than 33 m/s were extracted from the IBTrACS dataset for the WNP, and their corresponding LMI locations were identified in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e. A normal distribution was fitted to the distribution of all LMI points, and the 95% confidence interval was derived. The upper bound of this interval is shown in red in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e and is defined in this study as the northern limit of LMI occurrence. Based on IBTrACS data, this northern limit was found to be 30\u0026deg;N. Next, to estimate the translation speed of typhoons from the northern LMI limit to the bay prior to landfall, we substituted an average typhoon translation speed over the 30\u0026deg;N to 40\u0026deg;N latitude band, which includes the region surrounding Japan's coastal bays. For strong typhoons, such as LMI, with wind speeds exceeding 33 m/s, the average translation speed between 30\u0026deg;N and 40\u0026deg;N was calculated using IBTrACS data and found to be 9.6 m/s.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe typhoon intensity decay equation was validated using observational data. Specifically, strong typhoons over the WNP with an LMI exceeding 33 m/s were selected from the IBTrACS dataset. The analysis for the LMI aimed to evaluate the discrepancy between the observed attenuation of typhoon intensity from LMI to the LI and the estimation of improved predictions as a function of latitude. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e shows typhoon intensity decays after maximum development and before landfall. The thin black lines in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e represent the observed intensity decay paths of individual typhoons from LMI to LI. A second-order polynomial was used to fit the observational decay paths, which is represented by the thick black line in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e. The red line represents the result of applying the decay equation, assuming the northern limit of LMI at 30\u0026deg;N and an average typhoon translation speed of 9.6 m/s, both derived from IBTrACS data. When the overall attenuation behavior of typhoons in the WNP is considered, the RMSE between the polynomial approximation of observed decay and the attenuation equation is approximately 2.2 m/s. This suggests that the attenuation equation is capable of adequately capturing the decay process of typhoon intensity.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo apply the typhoon intensity decay equation, it is necessary to determine the only two remaining degrees of freedom: the northern limit of the LMI and the typhoon translation speed. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e shows the result of applying the decay equation (dashed line), assuming the LMI occurs at 30\u0026deg;N, from which the dashed line begins. For the typhoon translation speed, we used the mean translation speed observed between 30\u0026deg;N and 40\u0026deg;N based on IBTrACS. Since the attenuation equation is optimized specifically for wind speed, it cannot be directly applied to central pressure. Therefore, to convert wind speed into central pressure, we employed the empirical relationship proposed by Atkinson (1977), which has been widely used in the WNP for approximately four decades. In this context, the resulting central pressure values are derived from the attenuated wind speeds. As a consequence, a gap emerges between the original MPI central pressure (blue solid line in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e) and the converted central pressure from attenuated wind speed (blue dashed line in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e) at 30\u0026deg;N. To reconcile this difference, the converted pressure curve was shifted southward until the corrected pressure at 30\u0026deg;N matched the original MPI pressure value. This adjustment implies that the corrected pressure remains constant between 25\u0026deg;N and 30\u0026deg;N, as indicated by the horizontal blue dashed line in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e. Compared to the original MPI values (solid lines in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e), the attenuated wind speeds (dashed lines in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e) successfully capture the upper bound of observed typhoon intensities, particularly the average of the top 10% strongest storms north of 30\u0026deg;N. In terms of central pressure, the original MPI significantly underestimated typhoon intensity when compared to observations. In contrast, the corrected values align much more closely with the average of the top 10% within the same latitude band. Because the decay equation employs an exponential function, the attenuated intensities immediately after its application (i.e., north of 30\u0026deg;N) are slightly lower than the original MPI values. However, when comparing the RMSE between observations and model estimates over the 30\u0026deg;N\u0026ndash;40\u0026deg;N range, the improvement is clear: for wind speed, the RMSE between observations and MPI is 12.1 m/s, while that between observations and the attenuation equation is 6.5 m/s, an improvement of approximately 45%. These results indicate that the attenuation process associated with typhoon movement, as described by Wang and Toumi (2022), can be effectively applied to MPI-based estimations of typhoon intensity.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.3. Typhoon Intensity Decay Equation to HighResMIP\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eUsing the northern limit of LMI and the typhoon translation speed derived from the HighResMIP track data, we applied the decay equation to each climate model, considering both the track-derived typhoon intensities and the theoretical upper limit, MPI. We then compared the RMSE between the track-derived top 10% average typhoon intensities and the MPI values, both before and after applying the decay equation for each tracking method and model. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e presents the RMSE and corresponding improvement rates resulting from introducing the attenuation effect. For historical climate simulations, RMSE was calculated for the latitude band between 30\u0026deg;N and 40\u0026deg;N. For future climate simulations, the RMSE was calculated from a modified lower bound, defined by adding the model-specific future change in the LMI northern limit to 30\u0026deg;N, up to 40\u0026deg;N. The horizontal axis of Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e shows the change in RMSE (before minus after the attenuation effect) for the historical climate simulations. In contrast, the vertical axis shows the improvement rate of RMSE in the future climate simulations. In Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e, different markers represent different combinations of tracking methods and model types: triangles (△) indicate atmospheric models using the TRACK algorithm, circles (〇) indicate atmospheric models using the TempestExtremes algorithm, squares (□) indicate coupled atmosphere-ocean models using TRACK, and diamonds (◇) indicate coupled models using TempestExtremes. Colors distinguish climate models, with filled markers representing wind speed results and unfilled markers representing central pressure results. Across all models, the introduction of the attenuation effect consistently reduced the discrepancy between model-based MPI and track-derived typhoon intensities. In terms of wind speed, the RMSE was generally improved by 10\u0026ndash;20 m/s, while for central pressure, improvements ranged from 20 to 40 hPa. The RMSE improvements were more pronounced for central pressure than for wind speed, suggesting that the original MPI tends to overestimate wind speed relative to pressure, or conversely underestimate pressure relative to wind speed. Examining the RMSE improvement rate under future climate scenarios, the most significant improvement was observed for wind speed in the atmospheric model CM-HR using the TRACK algorithm, with an improvement of approximately 80%. On average, the RMSE was reduced by approximately 60% across all climate models, demonstrating a substantial improvement in the representation of typhoon intensity\u0026mdash;a critical input for Maximum Potential Storm Surge calculations.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.4. Sensitivity Analysis of the MPS Model\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eA decay function for typhoon intensity after its LMI and before landfall was incorporated into the existing MPS model. This study investigated the sensitivity of MPS to the latitudinal limit of the LMI and typhoon translation speed, both of which are arbitrary parameters in conventional typhoon intensity decay formulations. The color bar in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e represents the variation in MPS corresponding to changes in typhoon translation speed (vertical axis) from 5 m/s to 15 m/s and in the northern limit of the LMI (horizontal axis) from 30\u0026deg;N to 40\u0026deg;N in the WNP. In calculating the changes in MPS, the reference case assumes the LMI northern limit of 30\u0026deg;N and a typhoon translation speed of 10 m/s. Parameters required for estimating MPS were adopted from existing studies focused on Tokyo Bay. Furthermore, the initial typhoon intensity at an LMI latitude of 30\u0026deg;N and a translation speed of 5 m/s was set to 50 m/s, and variations in typhoon intensity were computed based on changes in both LMI latitude and translation speed. In Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e, red shading indicates values greater than the reference MPS, whereas blue shading denotes values smaller than the reference. As the northern limit of LMI shifts poleward, the decay distance of typhoon intensity becomes shorter. Therefore, at a fixed translation speed, the magnitude of MPS tends to increase. Conversely, when the translation speed increases at a constant LMI latitude, the time available for intensity decay decreases, also leading to an increase in MPS. These findings indicate that in the MPS model used in this study, wherein the typhoon intensity decay process is explicitly considered, MPS is highly sensitive to both the typhoon\u0026rsquo;s translation speed and the latitudinal location of its lifetime maximum intensity.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.5 Estimation and Optimization of the wind-induced parameter\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eTo determine the wind-induced surge term under steady-state conditions, it is essential to estimate the bay constant \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e in the MPS model (Mori et al., 2021, 2022). The bay constant \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e represents the sea surface roughness coefficient, which varies with wind speed and lower-atmospheric stability and is often expressed as a function of wind speed. In the MPS framework, the worst-case scenario for wind-induced surge is assumed to occur under steady-state conditions, and the wind contribution is derived from dynamical equilibrium. However, to validate this assumption, calibration of the bay constant \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e through numerical modeling is required. For this purpose, the high-resolution large ensemble experiment d4PDF 5 km (Kawase et al., 2023) was employed as meteorological forcing, while storm surge simulations conducted with ADCIRC (Pringle et al., 2021) were used to tune the bay constant \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e. ADCIRC is an unstructured finite-element model that solves the nonlinear long-wave equation and the continuity equation as governing equations. It has been widely applied in both localized inundation assessments and global-scale storm surge projections. In this study, a triangular unstructured mesh with resolutions ranging from 0.2 km to 24 km was used, comprising approximately 1.73\u0026nbsp;million elements and 900,000 grid points. Open boundary conditions were applied to the ocean-facing edges, and no-flux conditions at the landward boundaries. The d4PDF dataset includes both a 720-year historical experiment and a 720-year\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;4K global warming scenario. Although the sea surface drag coefficient \u003cem\u003eCd\u003c/em\u003e generally varies with wind speed and atmospheric stability, conventional MPS models often assume a constant value for \u003cem\u003eCd\u003c/em\u003e for simplicity. In contrast, this study employs a wind-speed-dependent formulation of \u003cem\u003eCd\u003c/em\u003e based on Garratt (1977) to improve the accuracy of \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e estimation. The orientation of the bay axis, along which storm surge effects are most pronounced, can be inferred from dynamical model outputs. For simplicity, the MPS model represents each bay as a rectangular channel, with the axis connecting the bay mouth to the deepest point regarded as the main bay axis. However, this simplification may not capture the actual direction in which the maximum surge develops. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology to objectively determine the optimal bay axis for the wind-induced surge using ADCIRC outputs, thereby minimizing subjective decisions and enhancing reproducibility. The method for determining the bay constant \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e in this study is as follows:\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003col\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe wind-induced surge was extracted from ADCIRC simulations for each 45-degree wind direction. The three cases exhibiting the highest linear correlation with the MPS model were selected.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eFor each selected case, the bay axis was rotated in 1-degree increments until it aligned with the wind direction. The optimal bay axis was identified by maximizing the integral of the reciprocal of water depth along the axis.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cp\u003eFor each candidate bay axis direction, the coefficient of determination \u003cem\u003eR\u0026sup2;\u003c/em\u003e between the wind-induced surge from ADCIRC and the MPS model was calculated. The axis yielding the highest \u003cem\u003eR\u0026sup2;\u003c/em\u003e was adopted for the MPS calculation.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn this process, the wind direction most influential to the wind-induced surge was used as a reference to iteratively determine the bay axis and the corresponding bay constant \u003cem\u003eK.\u003c/em\u003e This approach effectively eliminated arbitrariness and enabled automated, data-driven calibration of \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e. Additionally, incorporating a wind-speed-dependent drag coefficient further improved the fidelity of the model. For example, in the case of Osaka Bay, the integral of the inverse water depth along the newly selected bay axis was 1.09 times greater than that in previous studies. As a result, the coefficient of determination \u003cem\u003eR\u0026sup2;\u003c/em\u003e improved by approximately 40%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method in improving the accuracy of MPS predictions.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.6 Projection for Future Changes in MPS\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn this study, we conducted future projections of Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) for 49 bays. These projections incorporated the newly introduced concept of the LMI to account for the attenuation process of typhoon intensity north of the LMI, as well as bay constants calculated based on the bay axis direction determined by principal axis rotation, taking into account the drag coefficient \u003cem\u003eCd\u003c/em\u003e. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e presents the projected MPS and its change under future climate conditions for all 49 bays analyzed in this study, based on both AGCM (red) and AOGCM (blue). Regardless of ocean coupling, the highest median MPS was observed in Mikawa Bay, with values of 6.5 m under AGCM and 6.7 m under AOGCM as shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb\u003e(a)\u003c/b\u003e. Comparisons among individual bays, such as between Osaka Bay, Sakai, and Kobe, or between Ise Bay and Tsu, reveal minimal differences in the overall distribution of MPS in the box plots. In Osaka Bay, only the Sakai case exhibited a relatively lower distribution compared to Osaka and Kobe, likely due to its position at the innermost part of the bay. In contrast, for Tokyo Bay, the distribution of MPS was nearly twice as large when the bay head was defined on the Tokyo side, rather than the Chiba side, as in previous studies. This discrepancy is mainly attributed to differences in the bay constant \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e, which influences the estimation of wind-induced surge. The bay constant \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e for the Tokyo side was approximately 1.6 times greater than that for the Chiba side, significantly affecting the resulting MPS distribution. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb\u003e(b)\u003c/b\u003e shows the projected changes in MPS, calculated as the difference between the future and present climate means, for each bay. Results from AGCM and AOGCM are shown in red and blue, respectively, similar to Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e. In bays where only the pressure-induced surge was considered, excluding the wind-induced surge, no significant change in MPS was observed. However, in bays where both effects were included, the projected change in MPS was notably larger, as reflected by greater vertical spreads of the box plots. This suggests that the wind-induced component will play a dominant role in future MPS changes. In terms of median change, the largest projected increase in MPS occurred in Shanghai, regardless of ocean coupling: approximately 30 cm under AGCM and 1.1 m under AOGCM. In Mikawa Bay, Ariake Sea, and Shanghai, where absolute MPS values were also high, the vertical spread of MPS change was larger than in other bays, regardless of the model type. This suggests a higher degree of uncertainty in future MPS projections for these bays. Furthermore, the vertical spread of the box plots in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e was generally greater for AOGCM than for AGCM, implying that inter-model variability in SST and its impact on MPI is directly reflected in the variability of MPS projections. Future MPI increases were also larger under AOGCM than AGCM, primarily due to differences in SST distributions between the two model groups. Since MPI is highly correlated with SST, it typically decreases (i.e., central pressure increases) with latitude from south to north. However, in AOGCM, this spatial pattern is not consistently observed. The increased future MPS projections under AOGCM compared to AGCM, as seen in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e\u003cb\u003e(a)\u003c/b\u003e, can be attributed to the bay-scale variability in MPS under AOGCM. Although averaging tends to reduce this variability, the deviations from the mean remain significant, directly affecting the projected changes at the bay scale. Therefore, regional differences in bay-scale MPI under AOGCM, amplified by the specific GCM used, result in larger variances and projected changes in MPS.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eGiven the importance of the temporal evolution of MPS, representative bays were selected to illustrate these changes. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig9\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e presents the time series of MPS from 2000 to 2050 for Osaka Bay and Shanghai as examples. The color scheme distinguishes between model types: red hues indicate results from AGCM, while blue hues represent those from AOGCM. Thin lines denote monthly MPS values for each typhoon season and individual model; dotted lines represent the ensemble mean across models, and bold lines depict the 10-year moving average of these ensemble means. The shaded background areas indicate 95% confidence intervals. Each plot includes a legend showing the linear trend under future climate conditions. In Osaka Bay, MPS increases by approximately 20 cm per decade under AGCM and by about 50 cm per decade under AOGCM. The most pronounced linear trend was observed in Shanghai, regardless of model type, where MPS increases exceeded 50 cm per decade for AGCM and 70 cm per decade for AOGCM. These results suggest that, by around 2050, a relatively near-future timeframe, storm surges may reach 1.5 to 2.0 meters higher than present-day levels. In terms of absolute MPS values projected by 2050, Tokyo Bay is expected to exceed 3 m, Ise Bay over 4 m, and Osaka Bay over 5 m. These values substantially exceed the highest storm surges historically observed in these regions: 1.22 m in Tokyo Bay during Typhoon No. 20 (October 1979), 3.50 m in Ise Bay during the Ise Bay Typhoon (September 1959), and 2.77 m in Osaka Bay during Typhoon Jebi (September 2018). Since MPS represents the theoretical upper bound of storm surge potential for each bay, additional analysis is needed to estimate the actual likelihood of such events materializing. Among the bays analyzed, Shanghai exhibited the most pronounced upward trend in MPS. By 2050, projections indicate MPS values of over 4 m under AGCM and over 8 m under AOGCM. Furthermore, Shanghai showed substantial inter-model variability, especially in AOGCM. This is largely due to its geographical location near 30\u0026deg;N, where the attenuation distance of typhoon intensity has historically been short. In future climates, the attenuation process may not be fully captured during storm development. A comparison of time series trends between AGCM and AOGCM shows generally higher MPS under AOGCM. While large-scale averages of MPI over broad regions, such as the WNP, suggest weaker MPI values under AOGCM due to ocean mixing and SST cooling from typhoon passage, this trend often reverses at the bay scale. The higher MPS values in AOGCM indicate greater spatial variability in MPI at specific locations. In contrast, under AGCM, SST is fixed across models, resulting in a relatively uniform north-south gradient of MPI, with higher values typically in the south. However, in AOGCM, this gradient is not always consistent, and some models can reproduce ocean currents such as the Kuroshio, leading to situations where MPI near the Japanese archipelago exceeds that at lower latitudes near 30\u0026deg;N.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn summary, using an MPS-based modeling approach, future changes in potential maximum storm surge were projected for 49 bays along the Japanese coast and throughout East Asia. Major bays in East Asia, where wind-induced surges are pronounced, exhibited a clear upward trend in MPS. These findings highlight the critical importance of incorporating not only projected sea level rise but also the evolving characteristics of storm surges in future climate conditions into coastal adaptation strategies.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn this study, the future evolution of the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) along the coastlines of Japan and East Asia was comprehensively assessed using the MPS model, a climatological framework grounded in the theoretical upper limit for typhoon intensity, as originally proposed by Mori et al. (2021, 2022). The analysis employed both atmospheric-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs from the HighResMIP experiment, a coordinated ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, thereby enabling a systematic investigation of the influence of ocean coupling on future storm surge projections. A key advancement in the MPS modeling framework involved the integration of a typhoon intensity decay parameterization based on storm translation speed. This modification mitigates spatial discrepancies between theoretical MPI values and the actual intensities derived from typhoon track data, a known limitation in previous modeling approaches. Furthermore, the MPS model was automated and refined to objectively define bay geometries and incorporate physically meaningful parameters governing surge generation, thereby enhancing both the transparency and reproducibility of the modeling procedure.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe capacity of GCMs to reproduce typhoon characteristics reinforces the validity of MPI as an estimate of the theoretical upper limit of typhoon intensity. This is particularly relevant given that even the track data generated by HighResMIP models fail to capture intense typhoons with lifetime maximum intensities (LMI) exceeding 33 m/s. This study identifies and quantifies spatial inconsistencies between MPI estimates and model-derived LMI, and proposes a correction method to reconcile them. Importantly, it highlights a fundamental conceptual divergence: while MPI represents a thermodynamic upper limit, it does not account for the dynamic life cycle of typhoons, specifically the phases of intensification, stalling, and decay along their trajectories. As a result, MPI often overestimates actual typhoon intensity, particularly at higher latitudes in the WNP. To address this limitation, the MPS model was enhanced by incorporating an intensity-decay scheme into the MPI framework. Track data from HighResMIP models reveal a potential northward shift of up to four degrees latitude in the northern boundary of LMI occurrence under future climate conditions. Incorporating the decay process into MPI estimations improved the model’s representation of typhoon intensity by up to 80%, with a mean improvement of 60%, when compared with track-derived intensity data. This enhancement significantly strengthens the applicability of MPI-based approaches to storm surge modeling under both current and projected climate scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA sensitivity analysis was conducted to calibrate the MPS model with respect to wind-induced surge processes. Results indicated that the MPS is highly sensitive to the total decay distance of MPI. Key surge parameters were tuned using the bay constant \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e, referencing outputs from the high-resolution hydrodynamic model ADCIRC, driven by 5-km d4PDF atmospheric forcing dataset. The bay constant was modeled as a function of wind speed, an innovation not adopted in prior studies, yielding theoretical consistency between the MPS model and dynamic surge simulations. The orientation of each bay’s principal axis was determined based on the direction of maximum surge development, as derived from dynamic model outputs. This approach enabled the objective determination of both bay axes and bay constants, aligning fully with the conceptual underpinnings of the MPS framework. In the case of Osaka Bay, the newly defined bay axis showed approximately 40% better agreement with dynamic model results than previous delineations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA total of 49 bays were systematically identified and analyzed: 44 along the Pacific coast of Japan, one along the Sea of Japan, and four in East Asia outside Japan. Future changes in MPS were projected for all bays using both AGCM and AOGCM ensembles. The results indicate that wind-induced surges contribute more substantially to MPS than pressure-induced components, with the bay constant \u003cem\u003eK\u003c/em\u003e emerging as a key determinant of surge magnitude. Projections using AOGCM revealed pronounced inter-model variability in SST, leading to spatial heterogeneity in MPI projections at the bay scale. Consistently, the AOGCM ensembles produced larger MPI increases than the AGCM ensembles, a pattern that was also evident in MPS projections. By 2050, MPS values are projected to exceed 3 m in Tokyo Bay, 4 m in Ise Bay, and 5 m in Osaka Bay. The steepest linear increase in MPS was observed in Shanghai, with a trend of approximately 0.7 m per decade. Shanghai also recorded the largest median increase in MPS, reaching 1.1 m under the AOGCM ensembles. These findings provide compelling evidence of a pronounced upward trend in storm surge potential across key East Asian bays, which are densely populated and economically critical regions. The results underscore the necessity of integrating projections of future storm surge behavior, along with sea level rise, into regional coastal adaptation planning and risk management strategies.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e-Ethics approval and consent to participate\u003c/strong\u003e: Not applicable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e-Consent for publication\u003c/strong\u003e: Not applicable\u003cbr\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e-Competing Interests\u003c/strong\u003e: Not applicable\u003cbr\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e-Author contributions\u003c/strong\u003e:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eShun Ito conducted the main research and drafted the manuscript.\u003cbr\u003e\u0026nbsp;Tomoya Shimura and Takuya Miyashita provided comments and suggestions to improve the study.\u003cbr\u003e\u0026nbsp;Nobuhito Mori supervised the research topic and the overall study.\u003cbr\u003e\u0026nbsp;All authors read and approved the final manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e-Funding\u003c/strong\u003e:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis work was conducted by Theme 4 of the Advanced Studies of Climate Change Projection (SENTAN Program) Grant Number JPMXD0722678534 supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and This work was supported by MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI (23H00196), Japan.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e-Availability of data and materials\u003c/strong\u003e:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis study is based entirely on analyses of publicly available open datasets. No new data were generated or collected for this research.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAcknowledgement\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis work was conducted by Theme 4 of the Advanced Studies of Climate Change Projection (SENTAN Program) Grant Number JPMXD0722678534 supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) and This work was supported by MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI (23H00196), Japan.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eAtkinson, G. D., and Holliday, C. R.: Tropical cyclone minimum sea level pressure/maximum sustained wind relationship for the western North Pacific. Monthly Weather Review, 105(4), 421\u0026ndash;427, 1977\u003cstrong\u003e.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eBister, M., and Emanuel, K.: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity, 1, Interannual to interdecadal variability. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(D24), 4801, ACL26-1\u0026ndash;ACL26-15, 2002.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eGarratt, J. R.: Review of drag coefficients over oceans and continents. Monthly Weather Review, 105(7), 915\u0026ndash;929, 1977.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eGEBCO Compilation Group: GEBCO 2020 Grid (doi:10.5285/a29c5465-b138-234d-e053-6c86abc040b9), 2020.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eHaarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., ... and Storch, J. S. V.: High resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(11), 4185\u0026ndash;4208, 2016.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eKawase, H., Nosaka, M., Watanabe, S. I., Yamamoto, K., Shimura, T., Naka, Y., ... \u0026amp; Takayabu, I.: Identifying robust changes of extreme precipitation in Japan from large ensemble 5‐km‐grid regional experiments for 4K warming scenario. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(18), e2023JD038513, 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eKobayashi, S., Y. Ota, Y. Harada, A. Ebita, M. Moriya, H. Onoda, K. Onogi, H. Kamahori, C. Kobayashi, H. Endo, K. Miyaoka, and K. Takahashi: The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics, \u003cem\u003eJ. Meteor. Soc. Japan\u003c/em\u003e, 93, pp.5-48, 2015.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMizuta, R., Murata, A., Ishii, M., Shiogama, H., Hibino, K., Mori, N., Arakawa, O., Imada, Y., Yoshida, K., Aoyagi, T., Kawase, H., Mori, M., Okada, Y., Shimura, T., Nagatomo, T., Ikeda, M., Endo, H., Nosaka, M., Arai, M., Takahashi, C., Tanaka, K., Takemi, T., Tachikawa, Y., Temur, K., Kamae, Y., Watanabe, M., Sasaki, H., Kitoh, A., Takayabu, I., Nakakita, E., and Kimoto, M.: Over 5,000 years of ensemble future climate simulations by 60-km global and 20-km regional atmospheric models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 1383\u0026ndash;1398, 2017.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMori, N., and Takemi, T.: Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to future changes of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific Ocean. Weather and Climate Extremes, 11, 53\u0026ndash;69, 2016.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMori, N., Ariyoshi, N., Shimura, T., Miyashita, T., \u0026amp; Ninomiya, J.: Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone. Climatic Change, 164(3), 25, 2021.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMori, S., Shimura, T., Miyashita, T., Webb, A., \u0026amp; Mori, N.: Future changes in extreme storm surge based on a maximum potential storm surge model for East Asia. Coastal Engineering Journal, 64(4), 630\u0026ndash;647, 2022.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ePringle, W. J., Wirasaet, D., Roberts, K. J., \u0026amp; Westerink, J. J.: Global storm tide modeling with ADCIRC v55: unstructured mesh design and performance. Geoscientific Model Development, 14(2), 1125\u0026ndash;1145, 2021.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eProudman, J.: The effects on the sea of changes in atmospheric pressure. Geophysical Journal International, 2, 197\u0026ndash;209, 1929.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eRoberts, M. J., Camp, J., Seddon, J., Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K., Vanniere, B., ... \u0026amp; Ullrich, P.: Impact of model resolution on tropical cyclone simulation using the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA multimodel ensemble. Journal of Climate, 33(7), 2557\u0026ndash;2583, 2020.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eRoberts, M. J., Camp, J., Seddon, J., Vidale, P. L., Hodges, K., Vanni\u0026egrave;re, B., ... \u0026amp; Wu, L.: Projected future changes in tropical cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP multimodel ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(14), e2020GL088662, 2020.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eSroka, S., and Emanuel, K.: A review of parameterizations for enthalpy and momentum fluxes from sea spray in tropical cyclones. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 51(10), 3053\u0026ndash;3069, 2021.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eWang, S., and Toumi, R.: On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 3288, 2022.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},{"header":"Table","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTable 1:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eThe list of datasets in this study, CMIP6 HighResMIP\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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wzKGkTQkCX2AntbWVqw2KzU1NYqOf77uc8rLy9mxYwfFxcU0NzeTl5dHcXERzc1N7N+/n7Vr1yJKPbPl5eXszdlLa2srWu1/e3ujo6NJT0tn//79OF1OOjs70Wq1pKenIwgCHR0dlJeXU1xcrHz8NDc3U1tbi9fjxWAw0NXdTW1tLXn5+Rw9epSwsDBCQ0MH1mE/Z4zX6+XKK69k3rx5ZGdnk5KSwqRJk/j1r39NdXU169evJycnh5qaGvbs2UNtbS3FxcV9OlpaSmFhIfn5+QQHBxMdHU1HRwdVVVX09vbS2d2J2+slJzeHg3kH2bFzBwWFBbjdbvIP5dPa2srGjRspLy9X4qPRaBgxYgTZo7P59NNPCQgIoLq6mq6OLmbPnk1ERAQtLS3U1NSwe/duWlpaWLx4MYcOHSIsLIzg4GCqqqpYs2YN7e3tmEwmysvLOXr0KPv370ej6dO7iooKpWPMr0uDnzM2cuVemwvdILhcLiZOmkhQcBDbdmyjtraWwMBA0tLT0Gi0LFu2jPb2dpxOJ2++/RZtHe0s+fhjQkJD6TWb8Yoih4sOs/mLLXR1dvHmm2+i0WjwSitHcKF7dNQC/prClo2y6OhoJk2epFQ0NpuNYRnDEASBqqoqdu3ahdFoZMeOHWzfsZ3t27dTWFhIcHAwTpcLNBo+/Ogjurq7WLlyJYWFhXg8nq//ESDCV90qG0opKSmkp6ezadMmbDYbDoeD5ORknE4nhw8fJj8/n4CAAFavXs3BgwfZtmM7TS0tBIeE4Pa4OXrsKAfz8mhrb+fDjz6ktb0dBAGP6OXdRYuob6hn0XuLKDhcSEdnJwsWLKCzs5PFixcTGhrKK6+8QmNjo/Jl39bWRmdnJyHBIXi9XrxeLy6Xi7i4OLZs2UJtbS2bNm1i//79vP/++3zxxReYTCaeffZZdDodPT09eDweDh48yJdffkl9fT3//ve/OXz4MC+99BJmsxm73Y5er6eyspKOjg7i4uKoqanB4XBgNBoRJXcPl8tFUlIS//nPfxTD+ZlnnwFB4PkX/h+iAEeOHWXNurVUlFfw2uuvUVlTxao1a6itPY7b7SYgIICCggLWrFnD8ePHaWhoYPHixdTW1lJYWEhrayvjxo1j27Ztp90DJvc8ynnY2trKp59+Snh4OPfccw9Hjx5l9+7dtLa2smLFCnJzc1m5ciWlZaU4XU6WLl1Ke3s74eHhPPPMM4pfuNPp5MCBA2zevBmTqZcXX3wBo9FIQEAAOp2OktISpadzz949REREsGHDBvbu3cu2bdtYuWolPT09LPz3Qpqbm/ulpV9v9Ffo5oVAr9dTUFCAy+UiISEBURSpr69nyZIlVFRUIHr7Ptw///xzmpqbiYyO5IWXXqCjqxOP18PxuuM0NDbw8ssvKa4GpaWlvPfeewQGBio6hWTkFhYWYgw0EhMbg8vlwu12k5mZSXBwcN/Hs1bHokWLWL9+PZWVlSxdupT6+nqWLVtGYWEhzc3NvPzyy7S2tlJZWcmhQwXk5uYSEBCAzWajubmZL7/8ksbGRtasWUNRUZHSW4bklnT//ffz2WefYTab2blzJ9/5zncQJDeKxYsXI0p+wS+9/BLNzc0sXboUnU6Hy+1Cp9dTUFjAvgP7yTuUz5atX/T1Gl/AKv1kiPL/VHoneS8MarxeL2FhYXi93r72wCvi8XgIDQ2loqKCt99+m+7ubhobGykoKKCyspK33nqL+vp6cnNzEUWRsrIyPF4PLa0tFBcX097ejl6vZ/XqNZSUlbB8xafs/PJLzBYLb779FmablVf++U/S0tJ48cUXKSoqUsqxKIoEBAQwatQo3G43ubm52O12AoMCCQ4OxmazsWXLFkpKSti8eTN5eXm43W6lZxnJZXHjxo0cOHCApUuX0tPTQ1BQEM899xydnV18/PHHeP1ru19UfHWLdRIudBa73W5GjxpNRnoGy5ctx2w2k5ycjNvlRgCqqqoQBIG77rmbfbn7KC8rQ6/TExcbx2XTZ6DT6li9ejWxMbEkJCbwv//7vwNWghdMmaXXCsDZRkGr1ZKVmUVKSgpvL3gbu93O+PHjEUWRioq+YeiMjAwmT5lMe3s7H374IWPGjGH8+PEkJiYSFBjI1q1bAbj//vuJj4+Hk/hYnRbCqdMkG+eC5J/1ox/9iH/9618UFBQwa9YsPF4PVouV2tpapad63PhxfcOpzS2Eh4aSmprKkKQkSo4exevxkJ6WxvXXXU94aCiix0twUBCTJk0iLDSMqVOm8J25c7nj9ttpbW1FEASMgUYcDge333E706dPx+VyARAcHKw01Dpd33CaXq9XDLDOzk5+/OMfM2LECMaPH8/EiRO5++676eruIjAwEL1eT3h4ODt27CA+Pp5hw4bxk//5CcOHD2fUqFHccccdpKWlIYoiJpOJ3t5eNBoN4eHhiJJPr/xeOR6bNm0iISGBa6+9lm1bt4FHJDExkYCAAOLi4ogMj2TcuHEMyxjODdffQEpKCh0dHURGRREdHc3w4cOZM3cO99xzDw888AApqSnk5eURFhZGVFQUXq+Xuob6fm4WJzJwk6yR3EDcHrfyvLKyMtrb20lOTuaqq64iPT2dwMBACgoKsFqsLF++nKysLMaOHUNoaEg/V5rQ0FCCAoMwGAwkxCdgMBgIDgkmIiKChIQERo0cSVFhEc1NzUybMZ2UlBRcLhfJyclMnzade+6+h4CAAJyuvnWn1Si/TqGbFwqv10tsXCxms5mOjg4EQSA7O5sjR44QGBhIUFAQWp2WDRs3MH7cOEZmjmR4xjAaGxrRabXcdNNNfP/73yc8IgJRFBk+fDgejwez2ayMUsjlzuv1kpCQgMVqUYZqtZJLjMfjQaAvXHZ2NgaDgVmzZpE6NJXbbruNqVOnMmbMGK6//nqam5uJiIggLS2NxMREDAYDgYGBREZG0traSkNDA/Hx8Vx/3fVkZGTgUvmHe71eRo0aRVRUFBs2bMBqtRIdHa3o06crPmXWrFkMHz4cnbbPB3/dhvVcNmsmmSMycbvd9Pb20tHRwfxrr2XWzFl9K9QMrKYXFEH+n0rvhD5PtUGP3NmhLkuiKDJz5kyys7P5wQ9+QHZ2NiNHjcRisSiuKzabje9+97vceeedaCQf14KCAhISEkhMTCR7TDZxMbGMzR7D7Ctm86Mf/hCXw4XH5SYsJJS2tjbmz5/Pddddh1c1WUxuy2bOnMk//vEPLBYLEyZMQKRvPkNjYyMajYbvfe97jBs3TumgMBgMeDwe5s6dy+zZs2ltbWX58uVMmTKFrKwsYmJjqK+v57333+M7V19FVlbWCen2Mzj5mlbKSdu0bwSNRkNPTw/19fVMmzYNURTp7OwkOTmZlpYWXC4Xer2ehoYGjhYfYeZllxEXG0fJsWPkHTxIWWkptTU1TJk0mc2bNik9Z6Io0trSqizXJVf6FwRR+rQX5b/PHLnXo6mpieDgYMaPG0/JsRIyMzPp7Oqiq7ub+Ph46uvrOXz4MD3dPaSnpzNt2jS2bNnC9u3baG9rp7GxkYiICI4dO4bT6SQgIACTyURXV9fXK+jiqbtyRalXyeFw0NPbw4gRI4iNjeX48eMMHTqUpqYm3B43RqOR4uJiamtrEb0iM2bMwGqxkJuTS1lJKWWlZcTGxnFg/wEqKioID+vz8+rp7sbpcNLe2kZXZyed7Z00NzXT091DV2cXQUFBdHZ2cuDAAcLDwqXJPH0VaFhYGFdccQWdnZ1s3ryZ9vZ2Dh8+TGtrK8HBwdTW1tLT00NwcDAWi4XOzk6sVitdXV14vV4cDgclJSVkZWWxYeMGXG4XIUEhWCwWZchd7hmJjY0lPj4eu91OTEwMc78zl8OHD5Obm0tbWxv79++nu7ubtLQ0jh07RmVlJVdeeSUajYYAfQC5ubkUFxdz/Phxent7aW9rw2az0d3djdvtxmwyU1FRQWtrK/V19XR0dGCxWLj11lspKCxAq9USExMDQGpySr+etn6IYr8WWtYHt9tNc3Nz33rId99DW1sbCxYsIDo6mtqaWvIP5RMTE0NzczPf+c53iIuNY8+ePUycOJHNWzbT1NRMaGjfMKLFYsFmsxEeHq64qDQ1N9Ha1kpPTw/Hjh3DbrPT0dFJfEI8ZrOZfTm5CIJAREQELpeL9vZ2unu66ezoxO06cakz5dcpdPNCIJeF+dfOJzg4mI0bN2KxWOjq6tNVnU6HzW7DarEyccJEPl3+KZ0dHXjcHhITEvC6vRw7cpTG+gZCgoIpKChgw4YNBAUF0dbWRldXF93d3dilFTtcLhfZ2dkMHzZccTtoaGjg+PG+3v+uri5FV2R9amxsxGq10t7RTldXFz09PTQ3N7Nlyxby8/OxWCzU1ddht9uprq5Gp9P16fCB/QQF9X20qOuS3t5eOjs7efTRR1myZAlTp06lt7dXMVImTZrE8uXLsdvtREVFERsbS3hYGBs3bKCsrIyO9g66u7qpb6intbUVo9GITq/DarX2M4oGBXIdr9Y77+DvypXzSxRFJb/lMiVPWLVYLBw9epTPVnxGeHg4XV1dtLe3c/DgQT799FOOHDlCT08PSYl9mwEtW7aMmuoaTL29tLW00dXZRXNTE91d3bS1tmLQB6ARBHbu3EloaChuaclC+TCZTHg8HrKzs0Gqg4KCgqg7XkdQUBBOp5Pq6uq+Hl7p47CouIiuri5sdhs2uw2z2YzNZmPy5MksXboUk8mEwWAgLi6OoalD+fijJcpkY5PJdObtn59vFO2TZ7Bo2ksvvcQDv/hFnyJfwHwVpAkGWq2WkSNHkpWVRUZGBkFBQQQHBzNs2DDS0tLwSJNZZsyYwYgRI0Baeic0NJSEhARuuOEGqqurcbv7eplSUlLQ6XSkp6f3+exewMYuwGBk06ZNREZGMnXqNKUn8UyQKyBRFImSeu0yMjKYPHkyDrudpMREJk6ciFeahBIdHc2ECRMYN24cNbU16HV6YmNjGTlqFBMmTKD4cBGBgYGkpKQQHBxMTEwMqampZywnkb5uCoPBwIoVK5gxYwbx8fEnND5eaYJJWloao0ePZtiwYYSGhir5PmzYMCwWC16vl/j4eObMmUNgYCAdHR3o9XoSExO54ooraG9vp6e3h/j4eKVHacKECRgMBpKSkoiI7OsFDAsLw2AwMHToUGqP1zI0dSg2mw2r1UpaWhputxuPx0NKSgphYWGKG4PL5SI2NpYRI0ZQXV2N1+slNTWVyMhIkpOTiY2NJUAfwMSJE5VJY2PHjqW8os+fLC4ujvj4eCIjIxk1ahQeaammyMhIqqqqABgxYgTDhg1DFEVaW1vR6/XY7XZSUlIYPXo0XV1dAMyaNYvomGjCQkNpaWkhIjychIQERgwfQWhoKGNGZxNgCCAjPZ2YqBiCgoNISEggPDycuLg4goODGZI0RPkYGjp0KAUFBQQEBDBp0iSMRsMJNmBHZxf5+XnMnz8fjzQ5TVAtfRYXF8dll11GUFAQVquVKVOm4HA6aG1tJSEhQTGeR4wYQUpKCnPmzKG+vh6DwUBqaipZWVkIgsCQIUPIysqiqamJ+Ph4wiPCGZM9htDgUAICAhS9nDx5MhEREXR0dBAfH09mZibh4eFERUUpPdyjRo0iKChISYMgCOzYuZPhw4aRnJyinB8siKJIfHw8EVJPrNPpxGw2k5iYyOjRowkKDiIpKYkrr7ySpqYmjEYjcXFxjBk7FqPRgEuaVJmRkUFcXBxarZbExEQiIyMZOXIk4eHhJCUlERgYiFfyp04bmobV0veBptVqCQ0NJSwsTIlLZGQkQ1OHkpiYiD5Ar/SqpqSkKGEzMzMxGo1EREQQGRFJeno6BoOBiRMnotVqaWhsICIyguQhyQQFBfUznBISEhg6dCgGg4EZM2bgcrkIDAxkypQpjBgxgvLycqKjoxk6dChjxowhOjqa43XH+z4O4+IYk51NV2cnJpOJYcMyiI+PJzY2Vhk5ONN667whdeU6nU72H9jfp7Mjs/CKA0/0HEwI0giA2+0mIiKCUaNGgeROaDAYGDlypDLBLCkpiejoaCZOnIggCLS1tZGZmUlSYt/5GTNmIAiCVH+FERkZSVRUFAkJCURGRqLT6RgxYgTHjx8nISEBrVZLc3Mzw4cPB6mMeDweAgMDGTFiBKNHjyY1NRWdTofRaGTSpElERkbS2NiIV/Lzj4+PR6PRkJCQQHBwMBMnTiQ4OJjExESuvPJKqqurCQ0NJTExkbFjx5Kenk5xcXFfuxERwbhx49BdBJPPBEEgLz8fr9fLnDlzfC9f0pzRZhCJiYkUHirAew4W0j9bZB9JlzRjWG5c5aHjgIAAOjo6QJrA5PV6CQoKoqGhgeDgYIKDg3G73RgMBhobG0lMTMTpdGI0GpXh0QtJWFgYDz/yCMOGZfDgAw9iUS2jdSYI0kxpl8uFRpqZarfbMUjLickfC+3t7QQHB2M0GkHyiZONTJ1eT0BAAJ0dHUrPkSAt1WU/ydqlX4UgbQbxvXu/x8MPPTzgZhCCtMKAPFNbrsTkoSVR8kvt7OwkNjYWVCtKOJ1OIiIi0EgrJ3R1dREaGoooikrPoKw3WmkJKq80UW/dunXk5+eTnZ2NyWQiNTWVuXPn4pRm/2o0GkW/5F5WWc49PT3odDoCAgLQ6/V4JZ9d9TvldMq9WbGxsUq6LNKSeEi6XFpaSlVVFWPHjmXIkCEESLPhBUEgJiYGj8eDXq9XlhiLiopSRjLa2tqIjIhAK32wGQwGbDYbAYYAvJ6+VRzcbrfi/gCwe/duDh8+zNixY5k4cSIej4edO3cyevRohgwZgmYAF5WKigreeecdXn31VUVGMgEBAWg0mr73SsPeLmnGdW9Pb5+cAvQ4HA4sFgvh4eEESG4YPT09JCYm4nA4CJBWoHA6nVgsFgIDA9GoloaTnyl/nLpcLrq7uwkJCcFgMCBIqzLIZVzWbxlBEHjqqaeYN28el1122QWt206GKIoYpRVF6urqMBgMxMfHKzqskVYWcTqdtLW1kZqaqoxSmc1mPB4PkZGRuFwuPNLsco+nb2k4OV/UMpEbb3nlCrn8GI1GRd6y7GXdMhgMSu9aUFAQdrtd0UfZ0NZoNLjdbvR6Pb29vWi1WgIDA/uVf7mceL1eAgMDsUsrPwQFBWE2m9FJK2tYLBbi4+OVsL29vYSGhuLxeJSPKrn8yXWW0+nsl84LjVzezWYz//rXvxg7dqyy49lg1MOBkOs8eRRUo9FgNBqxSsuCidJqKHId63Q6sVqthIaGKnW0+ppWq8UrrVIjl+eQkBB27NjB1q1bGTlyJHa7neDgYG666SZFThqpjZN1zu12K3WzbBfIcwuMRmM/vQ8J6XONkvVaLkvyKLHcVnZ3dxMUFIRX+hgcTLp0MjTf4s0gzsjITUhI4HBBIV6vF0EYdKN6/RBVa4+qlVAuPKLUwzlQmMFAqLzjmWTkWr+mkXsq5MoHqRDIMhFPssawWnZng0ifz1loSOgpjdzTQTZe5I8cVL7CHo9HSYdciX5V3D0eDxWVFdTX1RMZGUl4eDjx8fFKA69G1h3fd59Kl2SZyzLWarW4fSY/qNHr9TQ1NSEIArGxsUrFj9TTLSOnUzZa1Hk4UHzU1+X36nQ6xb1h2rRpxMbG0tvbi9VqJTIyEq1q/Ug15eUVLFw4sJHri/w+X93CR3YDpVFGvhfV/er8ldOlTttA8VYjqIzcGZddNrgrN6ksipL/rC/CSfR9IN1Uy+hknOpdp0NfWyEiCP+dICRzqnz+KtR5rM53r9QJI5cV+e/BiiD0jW6ZzWbelIzc7978Xdwu12BXw9Piv2W9L61nky/19fWUlpYqIwXyiMKZINeP6rrUtwyIkm2AFH85nuqyhaS3cvoGM5pvsZF7YrfMKVBnpngh/RVOA7ny81VCucfON8xgQ46xoPr7XKNuBL3SSgGo5KI+1OHPtlD33X12z5ARpd5dNV7Jp/W/lWtfGN+KbCC0Wi1jsscwf/58Jk2aRFZW1oAGLqr3oCobX6VL8nPU4WV5D4RLmhgh99qiyiv1PWpdl8+fSrfVspFxu92MHj2aG2+8UekRDgwMJDY2VumFGTDvBzh1MmT9UeuVjDquan1Uo75Pff/JdNdXTqfDGSTngqGux3wRB9D3k+nC6cjmVO86Hfpe0d8Y7Tv/9fJHZqD71XXBQDo+GBGlLSD6650w6NvY00XOd/hv/ss6KvisD3wy5PvS0tKYP38+U6ZMYcyYMURFRZ3W/WpknZGNXbVOyqjrUbXuy/GWn+F7n5/BxxkZuRcrvpXcxa6YgiDgpW/YEFX6goKC0KrWrtXpdIqPnRo5vG8F4/u3KA1x+8pLvl8u5HrVhglqWfved7HgcrlwSVvDykOvX8XphBmI07nvZBWq7+9zgVcaohvI4FRX/P0Y4NSpGPAZp4mc5lM9Qx3mTGWkkxaY1+l06PX6QXsMpvgNFJeBzqmvqa+fKuyZHAM90/ddg/JQ6ZxGch3R63TK+RPCX2THqdJwJvmjk9zkkNaNFiT3k9O93/dQ3zvQM87m2YPxUNsG3ybOyF2hn08uwim3nfVzdoSFhUo+ucN48IEHsFj6fJ1kdAF6Vq9cxTXXXKP4qL7wwgtcc801TJ48GY/Hw4EDB1izZg0vvfQSdtW+9pyGASBKaw6++uqr3HvvvURFRSGqXDw0kl+dy+Vix44dhIeHM2vWLMUHSn6G2jD67zv7+i5CQs/eXcHPhedUPrkXC4Ig8OSTT5KRkcGYMWNObtD76YevnNR+t375nT5aaSfKFZ+tICM9gzlz5igf2n45DowgTUAPONmqL99y1LojCAIrV68iISGBp556yjfoJc0ZGblqn1w/55fQsFDJJ7fPyLVarIqBKYp9nxe33nYLj/3xMaZNmwbA008/zdy5c5k/fz4uadeuRx99lH379mEymXCpJue4pZUC9NLkKHkiiPpvgIaGBiIjIwkJCVGc+e12O4cPHyYzMxODwYDZbEaj0RAWFoZOmqwi94Dq9Xo0ks+sfE6UjNxQv5F7SVBeUcHCS8DIffzxx+no6CAhIQFBEPCK/nruq9AI/zVmHQ4H+fn5XH755X2jD9LwtJ9TI9C3q6TD4eBw4WFl7Wp5ON+vhyci0Ocnu3XbVq6ddy0e7+BfieKbRl02BUGgsOgwV111FU8//bRv0EuaMzJy/T253xxhoaE8/JtHGJYh9eRKs1aRZh4vXfYJVquVI0eO8MQTT2AwGPqMDIeTI0eO8OMf/4iRWSO56667uO6663A6nfz85z9n8+bN7N69mzlz5vDd736XpUuXEh4RzrSp09i+fTtjx45l3LhxbNmyhczMTLZu3coPf/hDvvjiC3p6egC44447+PnPf84DDzzA5MmT2bRpExEREYwfP55ly5ah1+u5/PLLCQsL4/PPP++b5R8ZybXXXktWVhYuZ99C/P6e3EuDiopyqSf3nxe1kfvkk08yffp0Jk+erJzzc2rUzUdHRwe/+e1vWPLREpxSGffL8KuRR7hMJhPvf/A+WZlZXHfddbilFSPkCVB++mO1Wrnxxhv58ssv/W3HAKjLplar5YMPF2MwGPw9uafC35P7zREaGsojv3mEDMnIlZdmATAajbz73iJuueUW7rjjDhYsWEBycjIvv/wyw4YNIzMzk6efeooX/t8L/OxnP+ODDz5g7dq1yjNiY2MZN24c+fn5GI1G1qxZwx133EF5eXm/paoyMzN54IEHePLJJ9mzZw8zZszg+9//PuvWreOZZ57h4YcfJjAwkPfffx+NRoNer+fOO+8kLy+PL7/8ku9973usXr2aOXPmsHfvXsLDw3nwwb7l0ATB35N7qVBeXs7ChQsv+p7cp556kvnzrxu0S4idK+QRIdnP+lzR0dHBT3/6U9atW3daetA3nMqZO3WfBuqh2q+LbHwKqpUazrXMZGQj13cJsfPBmcjmZGFlGfjKQx1eltv5kpfFYmHmzJkcPXr0tPTtm0BOv++/vsjXvik0Gg0LFr6Dy+Xyr65wKnyV2c/5o0++J8pYp9OxatUqKioqeP211wgNDmHlis9wO11oEIiKiCQjLZ3p06Yri8JnZWUxY8YMKioqCDAEEBsbiyi5DcydO5c333yTG2+8kTlz5lBZWUlRURGxsbH9Fmc3mUzU1NTglpa7CgwMxGg0IkjLYFksFg4VHOrbcCEpkZDQEGpqaggODiY2NhatVttvJzm//lw6XDp52dcon4tDXt1goPO+587FMdC7TnaIqhVJfK+d7YG0RNSp4iPLoE9GJ14/F4dH2ojE9/yZHLJ85LxU3K1Okbavc8jPk5+tPnzDft1DftZAcpH1wfe3fKjjJ/8ru7v5xl3ufZbfpX6vb5zO9hAl49H3/IU81Lqt/tf3OJd5e7qHLK9vG2dk5Pr5BhlAH2Xj0GKx8POf/5xHHn6Ejz76iMUfLlYWS3dK+8u3t7czZMgQPB4P3d3dNDc3M2XKFNyuvt7ShIQEKioqWPHZCvbs2cOxY8f4zne+Q1VVFR0dHYozv1baVaasrIy0tDQcDofSw9DT04PNZkMURcLCwkhLS+Pzzz9H9IoEGgNJT0/HJS1oLqrWJO7bxrJf0vz4GTycA90UfNbWVJ8/H3R1deHxWUrvZLikDVTwGdI838j1gCwDtYzOBWrZWq1WzGbzWclbjqvXpzfyvMjMt048h6/w1UX1b9nYEqQeR9+62ve8Glk+8jO8PuvOnkx+5ww5OgPISh3fc6ljp0KdRl/Z+SLLxs/554yMXHVmDZRxfs4dff7O/WWs1WrZv38/Tc1NuFwuAgwGWltbuf766xWXg8OHD/P555/zu9/9joiICO69914++OADDAYD11xzjfJ1nZKSwh2330FTUxN2u53hw4djt9u54447uO222wgLC+Po0aPKdoexsbHk5+dz33330dzczNy5c9m0aROhoaEYDAaGDBnCD+/7IUeOHKGxsZE77rgDrVaL0WikqamJuLg44uLi6O7uBkFO3wlJ9HMRIoqq/LwEOBdpCQoK4o033qCyslI5J4piP7cjX0630ZPDCYKA0Whk+fLlvPX2W8ruYQOFVf9uaWlh7969yiTR84Fv+6DT6Th+/DiffPIJlZWV6KSd6Ww2Gw6H4wQD4XTpW2G27x5RFNFqtZjNZt555x3effddQkJCTvls398yagOlra2NV199lRUrVvDmm2+yaNGiM5rRP9A71OdEsW9UTf4PwCueu543+Tm5ubk8/vjjPPbYY8z9zlz+9NifePjhh9m1axfz58/niSee4C9/+Qtr1qxR0qfX69mxYwcbNm5UPho0Gg0VFRU89+yzLFu2jKVLl/J///d/VFZWcs899/Dkk09itVr5y1/+wqOPPkpLS8uAMjgbZJnhU151Oh21tbX88Y9/5KGHH+KWW2/hscce4/nnn6ewsPAr8803nr6/B0Kj0WC19m1/7XK5eO6557j77rt59dVXefrpp1m9ejUWi6Wfb7UgdUipf58JX0env62ckU/uYNrW91JH3tY3IyPjBJ/c84mcp3JB8f19MsRTLE/m+xvpeV+1ra+fi4O+iWeXgk/u2W3rK+u5IK3f+aMf/YiwsDD++te/EhUVRVVVFatWreL+++9XVhyRV0sRpB4vg8Gg9IoJkkEhSDvZeaVttuXrHo8Ho9FIe3s7y5cv59ZbbyUmJkbZalS+x2AwYLfb0UrbV8tb5gYEBOCStjTVSFtVn0293t7Zwc9//nM+X7NWGcGR0el0HDp0iFdeeYXvfOc7/OxnP8PhcLBq1Sri4uK47LLLcDgciNJQuU61+YjBYMDhcIAkY1lGHmnFFqPRiM1uR6vrk01ERASffvopxcXFPPHEE9hsNvQ6HW5X35KH8hJnHo8Hl8uF0WjEqxpCDgwMVPLEZDLxu9/9joceeoixY8fS1tbGRx99RFBQEA888AC9vb1KvmhVW8TKeSCnR17mUXb3ktMh6wvneVtfr9dLdXU1w4cPp62tjd/+9re8//77lJeXA/DBBx/whz/8gZ07d7Jq1SqeeeYZkpKS0Ot0vPn222zavIk/PvYnpk2Zit1q43vf+x5PP/kkY8aMQRQEPvnkE26++Waef/55pl82g6GpQ9mXm8t99913ztKgRhAErFYrs2bNori4WKl3BGmk02Qy0dTUxMaNG5V5IHa7nbS0NGw2O1rtf3dck/Nd/vDSqnahlMtaSEgIbrcbp9OJKG1tLUruGXq9nl27dnHkyBH++Mc/8u6772IymbjvvvvQarXU1tYSERFBYGAgen3fFuZGo5H33nuPW2+9ldDQ0D4d1esRVLtger1eZQttOY59uuNFEPrmwHildc110tbsHsnFxGAw9DOqNd/iHc+0T55Bil966SUe+MUvlArAz/nDYDCwcdMmoqIimTZ12nmbhOCLutId6PfJ8L3nZNfU5wICAlixYgUzZswgPj4e7zc0rOTn3NLZ2UVeXh7z588/7SHzwYYgCOzcuZNhw4aRkpLie/m0kPU8MDCQRYsW8cMf/pBPln3CjBkzSEhI4LnnniM/P5+kpCTef/99cnNz+eKLL1i1ahVNTU0sXLiQ0aNHc/jwYT799FNyc3PR6XRYbVY2rN/Art278Hg8rPhsBevXrefNN99EEATS09PZm7OX4qJi3vjXG8y/dj4FBQUsX76cxYsXM378eJ5//nmKiopYtmwZ0dHRrFmzhqysLBYtWsSaNWuoq6tT1rn+ulhtNtauXcu937tXKcty/dHd3U1HRwd2u526ujpmz55NdXU1CxYsoK6uDofDwSdLP6HkWAmvv/E6oiiyfPlyiouLSUtL49133+XIkSN8/PHHzJ07l+3bt7N9+3aWfrKUESNG8L3vfY+2tjYWLVrEmDFj6O3pZc/uPezavYuamhpSklPYvHEjr732Gg6Hg8rKSj786EPefuttpk+fzoYNG9i+fTvLli1j3rx56KSNB7q6unj66ad5/vnncTgchISE0NLawieffMKVV17Jf/7zH9atW0dPbw/RUdGsWLGChQsXEh4eTv6hfPLy8vjnP//JpEmT2LdvH28veJvSklL++eo/ufmWm5X3ADidTg4cOEB8fDwjR4485/VhVFQUSK4cmzZv4t577yUmJobm5mZlSciCggIMBgM333wzgiBw+PBhhiQnU1hYSGhIKJMmTWLpxx8jAt+ZM4fg4GDcHg+jRo1Cq9Wya9cuTGYTZeVlPPCLXyhG5EBtwNkgCAIul4v/vPsuv3zwwX71jk6nIyoqirr6OiorK5k4cSIpKSnYbDY2b97M66+/jtlspqSkhI+WfMTBgwdZ9N4iOjs6WbhwIcHBwaxevZpt27bxySefsHHjRm688UZ27tzJxx9/zOeff87IkSNZv349Bw8eZMuWLTQ2NvLRRx8xZswY7HY7HR0dDB8+nEOHDjFkyBAqKiq46667yMrK4q233kKv17P0k6WUl5czefJkrrrqKrxeL0ePHsVqtfLxxx+zcuVKkpKSeP3118nJyWHjxo3s3r2bvXtz2LNnD0OGDCE3N5dXXnmF9vZ2PB4P+fn5vPLKK4waNYqEhIR+5TAvPx+v18ucOXNUkrz0OSN3BT9+/Pjxc3IEQcBmsxEeHk5QUBAzL5vJ3r17MZlM3HrrrVwx+wrmzJlDdHQ0aWlpPP7449TW1nL//fdz1VVX85///Idt27bxz9dfY+zYscoSfHV1dcyYNoNZl83CYXdw9dVX889//pPKykrq6uqIjYnl4YcfJiM9A4D169fzox/9iDvvvJPKqkpSUlKYNWsW7777LomJiTgcDqqrq0lKSuLJJ5/k8ssvV3pLzyWi5N/Z1tZGY2Mjt99+O3q9nnXr1jFt2jQuv/xyrrnmGubOncuQ5CHccecdfPe732Xs2LE8++yzNLc0s/DfC7nssst44IEHSEhIYMOGDVRWVhIQEMD//er/QITEhEReeP7/ceftd/DPV14lyBjIuLFj+dF9PyRAp+ftt94iMCiIp556iqSkJMLDw4mPj2fx4sUcPHiQ9PR0fvKTnzA0bSgOh4OOjg66urqU3jNB6vXTarUEBwXT29vL0aNHGT16NH/4wx+YOmUqBQUFJCUl8euHfg30uVJccfkVREVF4XQ6GTFiBBnpGTz88MMkDUk654bfqRCkHno5LTJyD2Z3dzd/+9vfKCoq4o9//KPysSMbT3fccQdHjhyhorISrU6H6LN2r9xr6PV6KTl2jKKiItrb2/v1Jp4PBpKgnFa115Hc2+p2u/nzn/9MamoqDoeDiPAIHnn4EWKiY7juuut45plnOHbsGBqNhoyMDP79738r68Jv3ryZX/3qV9x0000UFxdTUVFBSkoKP/7xj8kYlsGMy2Zww0034nQ6sVqtNDY20tHRgcnUy1VXXcXjjz/OBx98wG9+8xtuuukmpk2dxp///Geio6MJCwvjl7/8JT/4wQ/4/PPPeeCBB7j11ltpbm4mIiKCGTNmcPvtt+P1ennkkUdISEjgrbfewuPx8Pe//51hw4ZRUVFBfX09//M//8PQoUO/sY6xwc4ZaWC/YYfzMATh57/IPrn//f+lg8jAzvh+LlL6tycXLXIazqa86fV6cnJyCAwMpL6+nssuu4zNmzfT3d2Nx+PB6XAqkzW90lCo7EcrSCsTtLW10d3ZRUREBDExMUybOo1x48bxyquv8OWuLzEG9m3nnZKSQmRkJEh1s2ywANTX16PRaJg9ezbjxva5AslD5nIvWFdXF/X19RgMBpKTk7Hb7aqUnCUqNyeHw0FnZyd2ux2n04lerycvLw+n04nb7cZisfSF1Qh4vB483r44ejweRK+I1+OlubkZr9eLPqBviPa+++6jp6eHP//5z1itVgSpxzgoKKhvVRj63ATkXsS2tjZaW1uJj49nxowZhIeH4/VIKwAgcvToUURR5IFfPEBjYyML/71Q8b0dMmQINTU1BAYG0t3dTUNDA9OnT6e+oZ6m5ibCw8OJjY2loaEBs9nM6FGjmT59Ou3t7dTU1BAREdFPNHKey3FmAJ9cUfSeszZWNmrVxq3H3ecqI8s5MjKSv/71r4wZM4a3334bvV5PS0sLJpOJttZWMjIyqKyspOTIUbIyM2lqbKKtowNBSkd3d7fy/LvuvIv5867loYcfoqGh4YR3nxMUn9z/ykyN/D55kwiNoKG+oZ6amhqSk5OZNWsWMTExiJI7iSwLUXquIG1X7/F4lN7ZmtoaQkJCuOyyy5g9eza33347q1at4sMPPyRAH4DdZsdpd+DxeIiKimL8+PHceuutREZG0dnZyZgxYwgODqawsBCLxYLH46G3t1eJA1JvfklJCUajkZkzZzJixAg8qhUakMq6Tq+js6uTpqYmYmNjmTZtGnfffTfjxo3j73//O/v27Tv3Mr9IOSMjt5/Q/AI8r/RNqFD//9JB4PRcIPxcJAgD96hcbMhp+LrlTaPRKEPhQ4YMYcqUKcyZMwez2UxeXh4hISH09PTQ3t6uGHdms1kxnkwmE4mJiVwx+wpWrVqF1+tlxIgRHDt2DKPRyL333ktoaCgWi4WWlhby8vIYM2YMWq0Wm91GT08PoijS09NDZGQkixYtYsOGDVRXV+P2uGlpacHtdtPR0UFgYCDR0dHs27ePZcuWcfToUQIDA32T9PVRle/i4mLy8vK48847GTd2HFfOuRKr1crevXsRBIH29nbq6+txOpxYzBacTift7e20trbi9Xq57LLLyM/Pp7a2luDgYK655hoOHjzIXXfdxfXXX09PTw9ut5tjx46h0+m45ppr6OnpwePxYLVa6ezsZMqUKZSVlfHaa69x8OBBWltbcbvdOBwOrr7qanbt2qVMoho2bBh/+fNf+P3vf094eDh/+MMf+M9//kNDQwMlJSX09PTwxz/+keQhyezYvoMlS5ZQW1tLbGwsOTk5yu+ysjJMJhMGg4Ha2loaGxtxu910dXUB0NnZ2fexLwh9daL0X5/4NOesjVV3KHg8HmpqatDqtPT29uJ2uzGbzZhMJjweD3PnzqW1tZUdO3awdetWvF4v1157LdmjRjN96jQOHTpEWloaWVlZ7N27l7KyMpqamigoKFCe0dLSwi233NLXU/mXPytLT55TJJlJrYnvVdxud98KGyYznZ2duD1uZs2aRUdHB2+88QZ79+6lq6sLURQxmUzKhMXW1lZcThcej4fm5maampowGAxMnjyZ+Ph4Xn/9db788ksOHz5MaWkpv/rVrxg6dGjfh6cApaWliv7W1NRQWVnJwYMHKS4uprq6mgcffJDPP/+ciooK4uPjyc/Pp729naCgILq7u9Hr9YwcOZKXX36ZrVu3UldXh1f04nA4cDqdaLVauru76e3pZcb0GTQ1NfHCCy9w6NAhdu7cSXp6Oj/+yY8VX15/O+v3yR20qH1yp06deskNPQh+n9xLhs7OTr9PrmTkNjQ00NbWhlarJTY2lpqaGlJTU+ns7GT27NnYbDamTp1KY2MjoaGhaLVaMjIycLlc9Pb2kpmZydy5c8nPzycsLIzbb7+d3t5eSkpKiI2NZfbs2Rw8eJDa2lpSUlKYPXs2NTU1itzDwsKw2+3cf//9VFZWMmrUKIYPH05LSws6nY6hQ4dSVFREdHQ0WVlZTJ48md7eXq644gr0ev1ZjbD4+uQKkutGXV0dSHVaWHgYvT29uFwugoKCGDFiBJmZmbS1teGStx3X6ujq6qKzs5P4+HiysrLIzMxkz5493HXXXYSFhWG1WsnNzWXGjBnExcWxfPlyhg4dSnBwMDNnzqS5uZmYmBg8Hg9Op5Mrr7yS0aNH43A4mDlzJp2dnXg8HtLS0khKSmLKlCnU19dz9913K3KQe/iGDRtGUlISK1euRKvV8pOf/ETp4U1MTCQgIICpU6cybtw4goKCAJg4cSJTp07F6/UyZswYkpKSqKurw2g04vF4iI6OxuVykZqaqrSl59snVxRFnE4n27dvZ8KECYiiSEREhLKeOcAVV1xBUlISeXl5iKKXiIhwIiMjcbvdyhEcHMxdd92F3W5n7969uN1uvvOd71BRUQFSORg2bBg6nY7o6Gja29tJTEwkODj4rPRLjSCNRrz77rs86OOTK0gTBpubm9Hr9QQFBTFkyBAyMjKIiYnB5XJx2WWXoZEmlun1euLi4vB6vTQ1NREWFkZzczMWi4Wenh5++MMfEhgYyNVXX01VVRWTJk1i9OjR1NTU0N7ezpw5cxg+fDijR49WNjrSarUcP35cKYO9vb0EBgYSERFBWFgYHo+H6dOnY7fbsdlsZGRkYLFYGD58OHPmzKG2tpaxY8cyevRoWppbCAkJITQ0lISEBKxWK06nk9mzZzN+/HjsdjuTJ08mNTWVPXv2EB4ezvTp05UJlLJMvq0+uf7VFQYp8uoKw4Zl8OADfbNDLyUE/+oKlwwVFRXStr7+1RW0Wm2/Wc99vwNAAKfDgV6vx+lyYQgIAEHA7XKh1wfgdvfN+ndLi+zLrgX/fYYeEbBZLDzz7LNMmzaNW2+9FYfDgVarRSOtFqDT6fBIs/gDAgKkvz0YDH1LJ9ntdgICAtBoNEpPj06nwynNGj+bev1kqyvo9XrlfbJRoZVmkMvvlA0D2bCT46HRaBQZaLVaxcVBr9crKzAcOHCAN998k4ULFyorSahXipCfoU6rTqtFK8nb7Xaj0+nQ6XQ4HA6lfRNUa7xqtVpFnrLvsiB9qAvSclCiKKKXZsi7XC5lCFyQXALkSWZy/OV3C5KRez5XV5ARpR0zBWm9ZI/Ho+SHR1ptQqvVKm4vXq9XqZfVaZPvk/VNTq8cxuFwoNPr0UqG5LlOi3CS1RXU12W9k+Mn54+sR3I65Tz2iqLSJ/zqq68SGBjIz372s34GtLwyiazHSHIURRGdtDqDRqNBq9Uq6VXnsRzOK60OIut8QECAotuCtDSgrFMGoxFRCq+RfJw10koeSM9zSZ1gcr75ykPzLV5d4YzcFU5G36CB/ziXh4wo+vhCq/C952I58BlC88U3vP8Y3Mep8pIBwg+Ww5f/+kNKvR9ncGhURpHT4cDtcqERBLweD06HHafdDqKIy+kEKYzTbsfr8eCw2/C43TjsdjxuN4ii8gytRoMohfe63TQ2NjLzsstISEjo84MEXE4nTodDeYZbavzkZwiIOOx2nA4HGsmwdjoceD0eKX4OEEU0Qp9/qG/a1MeZIhtFDocD0etV3u+Q0u71eHC7XHjc7j6ZSHGW/5bjpr5Hq9Eo8bZaLBgCArjzjjuoqqqS0osS3ulw4JBkr06rx+NR5C2AIjs5jgJ9la/8t+j1YrfZcDmdaARBkZU6jvJ75Th4PR48kiErer1KPsnxkMPJqH1y1fjmwdkcGsBptyuyFFSycrtcCJKc1DolNUK4nE5FlhpBwON2Y7fZlHSIXq8ic0QRtxTe5XR+pV6d6fGVqOKrzjNZt0SvV8lzOa1u6V+rxcKokSNJSU5W0isfstzkvFenzaPKZ1kOcn573G48breS9y6nE9Hrxe1y4fV4sFmteD0eRa9kXUQUcdhsSl64nM6++NrteKXnyc9S69gZy+sS5oyNXFEANH1ik79S/cd5OHwU9ITrF/PRT6P6EnlCGP9xUR1KVg5w7aI5VL7iJ1z7igPJ0NX4nFf35p3qnO8hx0EdF6/XS0ZGBjfddBPTp00jSBqOPNXz5GsDhfE993XSrb5Xg4CgcmXzfabsY6q+R5DiISP/7Xtevsc3zgaDgfHjx3PzzTeTNWKE0isnP0sOr37GQL9P9vxThVc/3zdsv/AD3CvHT5B6m/vC9fcvVc5/k4ePvPqlQ5Un6t+nun6+DnX8vup9vjql/tf30Gg0GAICuOG667jpppuUnmn19YH+lg9U+XqqwzfMVz3X91Cn2Tf9A92vUcnq28YZG7k6adFhra5vuEen1aHxH+f00Op0aHX/XRhap9cr8lYfvvddLIdWp0Ov16OX0qjT6NBr9ei0fn26OA8NgqZvKFgr+VSqjxPDD47jhPKk0SBIQ646/YnhB8MhIuBye/B4RQSN9oTr5/vwzVudnN86HRqNAIJGkud/24jzXWd5RXC63HgRTrh2MRyyq4RGMpr7ylDfULruPMnsYj9k/UIAnX6AsjzAPad7CFodTo8Xl9tzwrWL9dBqdWjP83Jug5Uz8smNjo7moYce6u+Te9p3+zldBAEMBiOr16wmOjqamTNnDuzTdJHKvu+jss+f7aOPPuKKK64gMTFR8cfzc3HR3t7Gvn37uPnmWy4uv2pV54YgCGzevJmsrCxSU1P7Tl6k5eubROgbXUUQwGKxsPzTT/nf//3fk+uBX6YnIEgjWQ6Hk927d5OUlEh2drbiC+pb7fvpK7sul4s33niD3/3udyfqm19m/RAEgf0H9jNp0iT+9re/+V6+pDkjIzcmJoZnn322z9gShD6fkW9vL/j5Q4TAoEAWf7CYuLg45s2b1+fT5ptVF6ns5SE5o9HIa6+9xnXXX8fQoUP7Ofj7uXhoaW5h69at/OhHP+rzPzyhhZEsoZMhWUry0Fs/Pf9KHVdZWQrS/fJjTjZUp3qPIAh89tlnjB8/noyMvg0VvvrdFwglXfL/TiHb84yA0JffYt/EqYULF/L73/9eMToGb50lRUSebHchZSiCoNFgt9vZtHkzqcnJTJk6ta8sieLgkxnioNA7p9PJE088wYsvvqhMvFIFuGAIoqRPwoWVkRqNRsO2rdvIzMzk6aef9r18SXNGRm5iYiJNTU2+p/2cJ37zm9+QmZnJL37xC99Llwx33303jz/+OOPGjfO95Ocioaamhueff5633nrL99JFxZ/+9CduueUWpk+f7nvJz2nQ29vLLbfcwrZt23wv+TkNzGYzr7zyChMmTOCmm27yvezHB6vVSmZmJvX19b6X/AzAW2+9RUtLi391BT+DB1G89HcG80p7m/u5eLHb7V/paiLnsfpfdb7Lv9XHmTBQeN/nn+yajLwKwMWAHP/BVH7sdvtFNxrzdXTtfOH19i36f0Kv5CDhVOXpQjFY4iFzKn062flvisGqV+ebszJyT5WhnOS67+9zwcmeebLzZ4LvM3x/q/G95vt7INRhTif8heBk8TrZ+YuJ05H/yc6r8Q3j+1vmZOfVnE4YmTMJeyFwu93YbDbFFcFmsykLpsvn5B2r5N9I7gM9PT2K8Sync6D0yuc80jauorTFrfy8pqYmenp6AGhvb8dkMvW7X0b9/sFMT0+PsgWvWo6DgcEUl1PR29urrCV6scT5QiMIQj+5+TkRuTzKdZD8ESr6N9C6YJzxjmePPvqo8ltW+lWrVnHw4EFlV5fly5fT3d2t7AaDqiESpEWcn3jiCYYPH05ERAT79+9n165d5Obm0t3dTUdHB06nk+XLl9PU1MTx48cpLi5GFEUKCwvZtm0b2dnZysLHDQ0NbNiwAZPJhNfrZcGCBezfv58RI0You6yolWzLli3k5OSQn59Pa2sroigSFRWF1Wpl5cqV7N+/n9raWqqrq0lJSeGjjz7i008/JSEhgbi4OLq7u/n444/RaDQkJCT0k0dFRQWLFi2ip6eHtLQ0cnJyWLp0KSEhIRw+fJh169Yxffp0JT4tLS0sWbIEu93+3wkvEps2bSI6OpqpU6f2O3+m9PT0sHz5cvLz80lJSaG6uprVq1fT09NDXV0dW7ZsweVyYTQa2b59O7t27UKj0fDll1/S0dFBYmKiIuuqqioWL15MbGwsUVFRvq86Y5YvX87s2bP7yfGbRBRFdu7cyerVq5kxY4Zyvru7m/feew+r1UpaWhrNzc2sXr2abdu24XA4SElJobW1lSVLllBeXk5aWhrHjh3jww8/RKvVkpSUREdHB5s2bWL79u2YTCY6OjpISEhQKkKPx0NraytlZWUcPnyYDRs2EBcXR2hoKDk5ORw6dAiLxcLGjRuprq4mPj6e9evXU1BQQFxcHIcPHyYyMhKDwdAvTd807e3t5ObmnjDEWlVVxeuvv45OpyM9PZ2amhqKi4vJycnBYrGQnJzM4sWLee+999i1axfZ2dmEhYUhCAILFizgyJEjjBs3Do20kcCGDRvIysoCoKOjg9LSUhITE7Hb7axfv563336bDRs2UF5ezpgxYxBFkTVr1uBwOMjKymLTpk04nU5qamro7OwkJiYGrVarxHfLli1kZWUxdOhQVSoGD3KdcfToUQDCw8MHVcNpsVhYvnw5P/7xj30vXRDUbY78WxAEOjs7qa+vJzQ0FIPBMGgMEIfDwZ49e0hMTGTUqFG+ly8IatmYTCbKysoICwvDaDT6Bv3GcblcvP766/z2t7/1vfSNI8tJrXN5eXlYrVaio6MHhX7t27cPm832rdvx7Kx7coOCgggICODAgQPK1njV1dWYzWZli0NfgoKCyM3NxWQy8cUXX7Bnzx6mTJnCvHnzSEpK4sCBA0RERFBUVITRaGTixImMHj0as9mMTqdjwYIFbNy4UXneunXrWLBgAYK008o111xDXl4epaWl4NPb8d5771FVVcUVV1zBnDlzCA4OZvfu3fT29vL444+TnZ3NtddeS0JCAjU1NbhcLrKysggICGD9+vUAREREsH37doqKipQ4yGRkZPDuu++SmpqKXtqH+vXXXycjI4PU1FSeffZZ9u/frxSInJwcVqxYQVxcnO+jzhlBQUHo9XoOHDigbGtYUlKC0+nEaDRSXl6O2+0mJiaG5uZm6urqiI2Npbe3l9/85jd0dHQoz1q5ciWbNm0iLi5OKdBnw4Uu/IIgMGzYMF5++WW2b98O0rDhwYMHWbp0KYmJiRw+fJg33niD2bNnc9ddd1FcXMyCBQtISEhg586dyhatqampHDx4EJ1OR29vL08//TTDhg3j+uuvZ+TIkRQWFvbTRZPJxMqVKxk7dixut5sVK1aQnp6OTtqVyWazMXnyZA4fPszx48fRSvuWDxs2jJiYGKKjo9mxYwdms9knVRcWWS/0er1iyAN8+eWXHDp0iMmTJ1NYWMiWLVuYMmUKf/zjHykqKqKxsRGAyspKioqKaGho6KdjHo+HJUuW0NnZyYIFC/47QQwYNWoUv/zlL5kyZQpGo5HQ0FA+/PBDzGYzl112GQAffvghPT09JCYmsmvXrkEnt1MhN6Ktra00NzcrcjkXZfBSRm14yGzcuBG3201ISEi/84OBC10fqvE13L744gt0Oh1hYWEnyPTbjqjqSBOkNa3r6uoGXR0zmPTrm+KsjFykhiwyMhKNtAabwWAgKCiIoKAgTCYTH3/8Mc8//zylpaUIgsCGDRtYtGgRHR0dBAcH89hjjzF79myGDx9OamoqI0eO5N5778VoNKLX64mJiSE8PBy3282kSZNIS0sjPj6etWvXgjTppaGhgfT0dDQaDSNGjGDSpEnMmjWLyMhI8Pka/cc//sG1117L0KFDSUtLY+bMmVx//fXs2rWL48ePk52dTVJSEhMmTOD2228nKCiIGTNmMGvWLNLS0pR0G43GAQu6RqNRvt6Qll1zOByEhoaSkpLCzJkzeeKJJ0DqAdu/fz9jx44lNDTU50lnjzzUK+eR3GtlNBoxGo0EBgYSHBxMQECA0hsoGwihoaEEBgaSkpLCnj17cLlctLa2IkiLTYeEhCiF+WJGEARlBYsXX3wRpAkNubm5jB8/Ho/Hw549e9Dr9aSkpJCUlMTIkSMpLS2ltrYWnU6njFZERUURGhpKREQEy5YtIzw8nIyMDNLS0khMTOS73/2uUk7sdjurV69GkLafDAwM7OczFRQUpOiEXq+nt7eXoqIipk+fztSpU9FqtWRlZSmjJoORgICAfr2l3d3dGI1GxowZQ1tbG11dXYwePZqhQ4eSkZGh6OCxY8fIysoiMDBQeZZOp2Pu3LlYrVa+//3v84tf/ILw8HBEUcRgMDBs2DAyMzPJyMggMTGRgoICCgsLKS4uZsuWLbjdbu69917eeecd/v3vfzNv3jwiIiKU5w9mysrKOHLkCADbtm1DEASlt3mwNVoD1YkXmu7ubsrLy7FarVRXV+NyuYiJiQGftsFPf3p6eigtLcVsNtPR0UFvb68y0uLnv4jShiy1tbUUFxcDsGHDBgICAhg/frxvcD/fMGdl5MrK7nK5yM3N5a233mLhwoWUlpZiNBo5ePAgERERuFwuysvL+eijjzAYDNx7771ER0fT0NBAXV2dYhC2tLTwox/9iIceegi3243dbueNN97g6aefZvXq1Wg0GkRRZMKECcTHx7Nt2zasViuiKBITE4PH41EM6QULFlBRUdEvnseOHcNmsynG77Fjx7j77rv505/+RGFhIRMnTgRJaY1GI7GxsWi1WoqLi3nuuefIz8+XUv7fXU0GQq/X89Zbb/Hqq68qhhNSPLKzs4mJiaGgoACr1UpQUBAhISHnpXGQDSqkvazlPPr3v/9NRUWFsnd3fX09H3zwAW+99RarVq3CZDKh0WhwOBw89thjvPvuu5jNZtavX8+NN97Yb19uOU++Lmdz77lk7NixhISEsH//fjo6OggJCSE0NJSOjg7Kysr6uVPIOt3S0kJQUBAbNmzgzTff5P/9v/9HY2MjRqORTz75pJ/hBhAbG6uk1+FwcPjwYWbPnq1cV+eX3DOA9OHxj3/8g4KCAkaMGNEvXGJiIvX19Rd8ws9A+SioeoFEaY/1sLAwkD7A5PJTUlLCddddx7Bhw3j//ffJzMwkMDAQm82mhBOkUZojR47w/e9/n9WrVyvvEKRNUxobG2lvb2fy5Mns2LGDmJgYnnvuOZYvX87atWuZNm0aI0eOZMWKFTQ1NZ20/A42Kisr2bhxIxs2bKCrq4vhw4eDj44MFgaTTOW4yOtx7927l9WrV5OYmEhycnI/3fRzIhEREXzyySfs2LGDzz77jMTERGX0ZDDl82Chq6uLdevWsWnTJrq7u4mPj+9XV/u5MJxVDsiVrE6nY8KECTzwwAPcfffdpKen43Q6SUtLw2QyUVdXR2RkJF988QW9vb0YDAZ0Oh3R0dHo9XpsNhtIRkBKSgopKSloNBoMBgP33HMPDz/8MLfeeitIE1nGjRvHxIkT+cc//oHb7Wbq1Kn9esHmzZvHI488QmlpKZ988gn33XcfV111FWFhYTgcDqX3MT09nbS0NBISEggKCqKyslJ5howoimRnZ/OHP/wBjUZDQUGBbxCWL1/Obbfdxl/+8hdlbcPvf//7/PSnP+VnP/tZvwohMjKSe++9lz/84Q8cOXKEW265BYfDcV4rDVEU0Wq1Sh7deeedpKSk4PF48Hg8xMfHc+utt/LAAw9w9dVXK37MXq+XESNGEBMTo/iVyr2LagPmbOJ+oRsYOZ1Go5Ef//jHPP/883z55ZfccsstOJ1OgoODSUhIoLOzU7nH7XYTEBBAUFAQDoeDOXPm8Itf/IKf/exnxMfH43K5GD58OC0tLYpeyvKS0+vxeOju7iY2Nla5rvYPFVTbUTqdTu6//34OHDjAokWL+i18npiYSGVl5QWfOSvrwED5KRuqer2ezs5OXC4XERERpKSkYDKZaGpqYvr06QQHB3P06FFefvllli5dqvjXiqKI3W7nn//8J3/+85+55ZZbiI6O5osvvuj3nsbGRqxWK0OGDEGn0ym9yHFxcQQHB/PCCy9w9dVX8/HHH7N582ba2tr63T9YmTdvHhqNhscff5ykpCRGjBgBKgPfz6kJDg5m6tSpPPPMM5jNZqZNmwYq+Q0mGQ5Ufi4kV1xxBS+99BJVVVVMmTLF9/IFZbDIStafiRMnEh0dzYMPPojL5Rp08mIQyeyb5KyMXHXlIA/ZhoSEoJG2xty1axc2m40RI0bQ0tJCZGSk0rDIDd+jjz7Kv/71L6X3MDAwEIPBoDTwwcHBREVFkZCQQG5uLhppEorcm3vs2DGGDBmiPM/j8aDVaomNjWXChAnMmzeP119/naVLlzJkyBDuvPNOZfFonU5HYGAgkZGR3HbbbRw5coTjx48jCAJdXV0cPXoUj8eD2+0mPj6ecePGkZKSosRfVpjrr7+ehQsX8rvf/Q6dTofb7SYsLIyQkBDF1UItp4kTJ+J0OrHb7QQFBeF0Os+bkSKq/Kr0ej1IeaTT6RQDT6fTKf5pwcHBeKVZoS6XC5fLxW9/+1see+wxbr/9dnQ6HS6f3dfOpuAMhi9dWQ4zZ86ko6NDcR9wOp3ExMQwefJkiouLlTyqrKwkNTWVMWPGYLfbCQwMRKPREBoaqoxA/O///i979+6lvb0dJENV7cOt0WiIjo5W/FDDw8NJTk6mt7dXuS7nl8vlIiMjg9dee42NGzfyzjvvKDOcGxoayM7OVsrfhUZtNLhcLsxmsyK3pKQkIiIi2LBhAwkJCaSmpvL6669z6NAhtmzZwmeffcZvf/tbXnvtNe666y7mz5/PsGHDQCo3v/3tb4mOjiYoKIj58+czc+ZM5Z3y++QP2KuuugqTycT+/fvJyMggISEBrVaL3W5XXBt00mTKwY5Wq+WWW27h3Xff5dprr/W97Oc0mD9/Pi+++CL33XffoHZTGUwGN8Ds2bN58cUX+fnPf35OJhqfSwabrABuueUWVq5cyXe/+13fS4OCwSiz881ZWRiiKNLT08ORI0cIDw8HyfjzeDzK7Om8vDxEUcTpdPK///u/1NfX8+ijjxITE0NnZycPPvggc+fOZeHCheTn51NXV8cPf/hDTCYT3d3dvPvuuzz44IP8/e9/R6vV0tbWRmtrK8OHD+fPf/4zU6dOxePxYDQa0el0fPDBBzz44IN0dHQwadIkIiMjiYiIUIaKX3zxRUaOHMl//vMfDh06RFdXFz/96U9JTU1l8eLFPPXUUzz55JOsWrWK0aNHk5OTw09/+lN27drFpEmTFNcKedjY5XIRHBxMdHQ0YWFh9Pb28p3vfIfc3Fzcbjd79+7l2muvpaqqiv379yuG79///nduvvlmLBYLNpuN48eP+0j37JEN3N7eXqqrq4mKisLr9aLVanG73XR2duLxeLBarcoSS06nk56eHqxWKxaLhePHjzNu3DieeeYZoqKi2L17N7GxsVgsFuUdFzOiKLJ//340Gg06nY6HH36Y22+/HbPZTE9PD9XV1Vx99dXcf//9vPbaayxbtgyPx8OvfvUrTCYTWVlZiKKIzWbjyJEjGI1Guru7mTZtGr/5zW947rnneOWVV1i8eLEyzIzkczt79mx27doFUi/Az372M/7yl7/w8ssvU1xczDXXXENLSwuBgYEEBAQQHh7Obbfdxu7du/nkk0/wer10dXURHR09KD4WZESpxzo+Pp6HHnqIW2+9FVEUufbaa5k7dy7jxo3j9ttvJy4ujl/84hf8+Mc/Zv78+cyfP5/Y2Fj0ej0//OEP+f3vf6/45Wo0GiIiIhR9CwgIwKia4e12uxk6dCjXXHMNACNHjuSBBx4gJiaGm2++mezsbP7yl7+QlZWF1+vl3nvvVdyWLgbS09MZP378BV9J42JFq9UyefJkUlNTB3WdNZjiJkojgJMnTx60K44MNmJiYhg7duyg+yCQGUz69U1xVjueybfK/2ok/8yTPVKj0Si+g4I0HCuHV98jN9i+5+VeInGAyQLyObmHVSP5zMrh5XPy33LPrxwP+bfv/XJ4+X3yv3K85GfKYX2vyX7CJ4u3HF4Oo+aRRx4hMzOTBx54oN/500WdbrmHyzf+vvFSx0XuFZfDouqB95XH1+Wuu+7i8ccfv2AO+rKMZDmpZaFOqyjpDFK+ymFl5DDqvBdFUdF3WZ/U4bu7u1m2bBk//elPlXMDhffNHzlsUVER7e3tXHbZZf0maX3TlJSU8PLLL/POO++AT0Uqy0WN+txA6fL9W/2v1+vtVz/I/6rLsDovfGXu+141v/vd77jpppv6+UkPFnzTMhhpbW3lzjvvZOfOnb6XLjgD6eBgo7e3lxdeeIGJEydy2223+V6+IKjL0WCTmdVqZcSIETQ0NPheuqAM1rL62muv0dXVxV//+lffS5c0Z9X9Iyu+3OjL5+TfvgfSF7VWqz0hvHxeq9X2e676vNzwy/+qD/mcVppMJf9Wv0P9t06n6xePk90vx0FOg/p96meeTB5fFW/1+XONOt0ni79vvNRx0Uo+ouq4qtNzLuLs2/h808hplvVOnTbfvNPpdIpuyPeq5SCHU19X3+MbPjw8nHvvvZdjx44p1wcK7/u3RqPBZrMREBDAzJkzL6iBKyOnSf7bVy4nO+d7z0B/q/+VZasOJ5+T5SRfG0jmvu9Vc6F18VScLM5+Tg+1HgxmWQ42HVSXIz+nh19Wg4uvbeQOtsLox8/FSEhICNnZ2Uov8eliNBrJzMzsN2Tv5+zwN05+/Pi5lPk22m1f28j1Nwh+zgXfZj1Sp13dQ3k6qHuMLzQXywSur0Ij9ej7+XqoRzn8nDmCavTIj59zzbdVr87IJzchIYHt27fjkfaI/zYbKOcTQRAICQnhL3/5C2lpafz4xz/GZrNdcl9hwcHB3H///dx///1kZ2f3W4XCz+kxGMqhvNXz3//+d5xO5wWPz9dBo9HwwgsvcOWVVyrbaF9q5e1809nZyW9+8xuWLFmirP7h5/QQBAGz2cyiRYsYOXIk1113HS6XC2EAn3Y/fdjtdm644QZ27drl17eTILcPGo2G999/n8DAQJ588knfYJc0Z2TkRkREMGHCBH+h+wbQ6/WUlZVhNBpJTk5WJsRdSmiljTZSU1PP24YYfs4/drud+vp6MjMzz9jtYrCg0WioqqoiMjKS8PBwv3FxmshyEgQBp9PJsWPHmDBhgjIJ0C/D08fr9VJfX09QUJCyGpBfhifHK22/PmPGjIu23vmm0Gq1HD9+nO9973v87W9/8718SXNGRq7v6gp+zi/q1RUGQ4/duUJWOUEQLvjqCn7OHt/VFS5W1KsrXErl7Xwjy6qlpYW7776bHTt29Cvjfk6NLL+enh5eeOEFJk2axG233ebXwVMgiiJWq5XMzMxBt7rCYMW/usJp4C9w3yzCALPMLwXU6fJzaXAp5KegWqnhUkjPN4UsK3mFEvmcX4anhywn9Wog6vN+TkSWk19Gp4/wLR0VOCMjV83pCEs8xZq5Ml913ZevCv9V18+U00nDqTjbe8/m/jPF912+v88V33S6zpbTiatvGN/flzpyes8m3QPde7Ln+v7+uqifI6rWQj5Xz/82IJdndbm+mOQ3WOI6kAwHS9wGIxeDfAZT/AZTXL5JzsjIVQtJ/oISpX3lW1tblR20enp6qK+vx2Kx9PvSUitla2srJSUlOBwOAJqbm2lqaqKlpYW6ujq8Xi9Wq5WGhgZaWlpobGykrq4Ot9tNU1MTnZ2dyjMBLBYLzc3Nyo5dxcXFdHR09Ks41PGvq6tT3llXV6ecdzqd1NTU0NraSkNDA1arFZvNRllZGXV1dcoznE4n3d3dAzq89/T0KPd6vV46Ojqoq6vD6XQqz5W3f21ubqarq+u8K6DdbqelpYWOjo5+eWQ2m+nu7qaxsRG73Y7H46GlpYWWlhYcDgeNjY20tLTg8XgwmUxKus4G9Rf4+U736dDW1kZzc3O/c7Icuru7EQQBq9VKXV0d9fX1dHR0gLSNbFtbG21tbXg8Hnp7ezl+/Dhms1l5jqy/dXV1Sj6rddHlctHU1ITJZKK5uRm73Y7X68VkMtHR0aGc7+rqwuv10tnZSVNTE93d3fT29g46X211vnZ3d1NQUEBNTQ1Iu5KVlZWxfft2WlpaACgqKuKDDz5g3759Sl2ANJnt0KFDyiRXOe3ys73Sbm8yx44d47XXXmPBggVs3rwZk8kEQFlZGQUFBdhsNnp7ezly5Ag7d+5U8vBkPUEnO+/nROTyrNbrwSA/WU/kOKnLXm1t7aDctVEtt8HQU6mWHVK5lMvWheZCy0ZG1imv19tP35qampR6ZrAwWGT2TXJGRq4vouQz1NXVxcqVK9m/fz9arZaqqipWrVp1gq+MutA2NTWxbt067HY7hw8fZseOHZhMJkwmE+vXr1eMhqeeegqr1UpbWxtVVVV4PB5ycnJ46aWX+s3kXr16NUuWLMFqtdLU1MSxY8dYuHAhjY2NJ1QWe/bsYc+ePVgsFjo7O/nss88AMJlMLF26lLa2NpxOJ0ePHmXv3r2YzWaOHj3K8uXLycnJAcmQ/fzzz/ttxysru8vl4q9//StmsxlRFMnJyWH16tW4XC52797N+vXr0el0dHV1sWLFCvbv33/ela+9vZ1PP/1UyaOysjJWr15Ne3s7BQUFrFu3jo6ODrRaLe+//z6FhYXodDoWLlxIZWUlHo8Hl8vF448/3s8YOVvOd7q/CtlYevTRRxUjCukj6Nlnn6Wjo4Oenh62bNnC8ePHcTqd7Ny5k4MHD6LX63nvvffYvn07Op0Oq9XKf/7zH+rq6hAEgcWLF1NbW4vT6aSuro6tW7f2MwLsdjv79u3D5XJRUlLCK6+8oizDVFFRQX5+PgEBAXz66afs2LEDjUbD5s2bKS0tBaC0tJT6+vpBMenCNx/lemHt2rXs27cPgP3797Np0yZKSkrYsWMH5eXlHD9+nMbGRp577jnFGHY6nbzzzjusXr1a2QHO6/Wyc+dOGhsbcTqd7NixQzFyrVYrJSUlHDt2jE2bNrFlyxaMRiMHDx5kz549OBwOjEYjixcvpqysjNbWVtatW9fvY8TPucFXDwYbgiCQl5dHc3OzEtdv69JKp4MsI0EQKCwsVOo2P/2RbSG1Lh0+fPgE+8DPN885Kd1ut5uSkhLa2tpAaqRaW1txu904nU5aWlro7e1Vlojq7OzEZDJhNptxu90888wzJCQkkJGRwbBhw5g4caJSkDZu3Eh6ejqjRo0iMzMTg8GA0Whk9erVbNu2DYDGxka++OILent70ev1xMTEMG/ePKUHDJUS9vb28vLLLzNy5EjS09MZMWIEEydOxOPxsGXLFnJzc5k0aRLJyckMHToUl8tFcHAwV1xxBcHBwVRVVYG00kRFRQWtra2SFPoqAlEUiYmJYe3atej1enQ6HT09PbS2thIQEEB7ezvt7e0g9RaWl5crv89nIZCNdtmQkz8GNBoNXV1dNDQ0KMZSXl4eoiii0+nYu3cvRqORgIAAoqKi+OyzzwbFDlvnkoSEBPLz81m0aBEANpuNzZs3U15ejkajYe/evWzdupVJkyaRkZGB0+nks88+w2q1UlBQoPRKRkdHU1paitfrZf/+/WzZsoWMjAxSUlIYPXo0kZGRIOmJx+OhoqKCvXv3kpqaSldXF1u3blXWnLVYLJhMJgwGAyUlJdTW1nL06FEAsrKyiIiIIDExkY8++oju7m4lLReKgXTXaDRiNBqVspyfn4/L5eJ//ud/qK6u5sCBA1x99dX88Y9/xOPxKGV17969OJ3OfmvWarVakpKS2L59O6tXr8bpdJKQkKBcv/zyy3nrrbd45JFHmDFjBhaLhY8//hiHw6HUJ42NjTQ1NRETE0N4ePiAcfZzdgwmmQpS54Y8aiaPCuTl5REeHk5QUJDvLX5UeDwebDab0m7n5uYSExNDSEiIb9BvPRqNBofDoYxel5WV4XK5SExM9A3q5xvmrIxcufHSarUEBARgNpux2Wx0d3ej1WoxGo3k5ORQXV3NypUrOXr0KF988QXV1dW0trYiiiK7du3C5XIxYcIExSD0eDwcPXpUeUZNTQ379++nrKwMQRDIzMwkKytLMXJra2sRRZFhw4YpRu7BgwcxGAyEhob2i+umTZsIDg5m9OjRCIKAyWRCq9WSl5fHli1bGDt2rNK4pqenM3v2bIKDg2lqaqK+vp4hQ4aAtMSX/Gw18pdcUFAQbW1ttLa2YrFYCAwMRBAEDAYDLpeLnp4e2tvbEUVR2bXqXH8hi6rhQ61Wi16vx2KxKHkUEBCgHLJbhdPpxOv1EhAQAFI6enp6aGlpoa2tjaCgoEuq50POk7vuuovVq1djt9txOp1UVlYydepUOjo6yM3NJTU1VTHuMzIy6OnpobS0FKPRiMlkwmKx0NraitFoJCQkhLfffptp06Yphm1ERARz585V3mu329m6dSvjxo0DaSF99ceDXq/HYDCAtP3vsmXLKCwsZP78+UrFmZycTHl5+aAYElPrrq/OCYKgDOPFxMRgMBiwWCxoNBoMBgNut5srr7ySpKQkjhw5QkxMDNOnTycoKEh5rkajYcKECRw7dozCwkLGjBmjGCnykktOpxOr1Up8fDybNm1Cp9Mxe/Zs3njjDfLy8njwwQcpKiri+eefZ9y4cQOWXz9nx7muw84WQRDo7Ozk008/paqqis2bN5OQkEBKSopvUD8+WK1WVq5cybFjx9i6dStxcXF+uQ2ArPPFxcWsWbMGh8PBoUOH0Ol0/YzcwVY2vi2clbWi/moXpK563xm24eHhtLS08PHHH3P06FFycnIQBIGsrCwCAwMpLy/HYDAohpNGo+G9996jp6dHmW0aGBhIcHCwEiYgIIBJkyah1+v54IMPMBqNjBkzBqfKPzY6OlrpJc3Pz+ett95i/fr1HDt2jJCQEASVH9nrr7+ufIXp9XqQ0qbT6ZSv1pCQELq6uigpKVHegcqo/fTTT3nllVcUw1u+JstDPaQsCAI6nQ6ttLuNLMdz3Qsip1H9txwn3/cOlH/yNa1Wq9xzrgvquU7z10EURZKSkrj88st59913OXjwIPPmzcPhcCiGk9ogkmUlx91XpoIg0NTUpHwsye9Qy8/hcFBcXKwYufJzZdS+XYIg4HA42LNnD/X19UoYgOHDh1NaWtpP9y8k6vxUx1+j0RAQEIDL5QJQyjTAoUOHmD9/PkOHDmXJkiVs2LCB9evXs23bNo4fP44grcG6atUqZs+ezV133cXu3bsV9wb5PVVVVfT29jJr1ixqamqIiopi9OjRlJaWUltbS15eHtdeey1Tpkxhw4YNg8a30M/5JSoqitraWt566y1yc3MZPny4ont+Tk5oaCitra0sWrSIL7/8kuHDhxMWFuYb7IIxGNoOVPFITk6mpqaGn//85zgcDqZMmeIb1M8F4KyMXLlRlg240NBQZVjbYDDQ3d1NS0sLiYmJREVFgTQRx263M2TIEHQ6HTfccAOHDh1ShnxDQ0Pp6enptxh2fHw8EydOZNKkSTQ1NeHxeBg7diwjRozgnXfewev1MnToUDwejxKnCRMmMG7cOPR6PSEhISQnJxMVFcXNN9/M1q1blQYuMDCQlpYW0tPTycrK4tChQ0razGazMiktLS2NK664ol9vm6iajR0fH09qaqrScyeKIlFRUURFRREWFoagWr4jJCSE4OBgoqOj0ev1it/h+USOZ0hICAEBAURERKDVahVjymg0EhUVhVarxWAw9Mvb8PBwoqOjiY6Oxu12n3ND90Ij58tPfvIT3nrrLWpqahg3bpwy3JSdnc3+/fuV8C0tLQQGBpKeno7L5SIkJASj0UhsbCxarRaHw8H8+fMpLCxU/JcFQej3gSQIgvJBhdRzqx4GlF1dkNwn7rzzTmbMmMELL7xAcXGxEg6fpZsuFGqD1jcu8jXZb7m8vJyQkBAyMzPZtWsXDQ0NaLVaDh06xHXXXcesWbMYMmQI8fHxhIaGKh8IQ4YMYe7cuWRnZzN58uR+HxFIblBmsxlB+og2Go14PB6SkpKIjY1l7dq1xMTE8NhjjymTLv2cWwaL4SEjiiJ6vZ57770XjUbDqFGjyMrK8g3m5yTcddddCILA8OHDGTVqlO/lC4pvPXOhkNv2hIQEZsyYgV6vJz09nZiYGN+gfi4AZ2XkyjidTkTV0LjFYqG7uxuHw0FeXh6fffYZvb291NXVkZKSwtq1a/nwww/Zt28fTqeTl156iddff52jR49SUVGBx+MhJCQEs9msGMvHjx9n3bp1ysoFWq2W7Oxsbr31VjIzM+nt7aWmpobc3FwWLlxITk4OWVlZREVFkZmZyY033si0adMYP348f/jDH3j22WeprKykqqoKg8FAVFQUd955J3q9ngULFlBeXk5paSkOh4MlS5awZs0aoqOjlYLu8Xhoa2tTZuhefvnl3HrrrUycOFEZ1rfZbHilWeFdXV3YbDZ6enro6enpJzfZAD3XhVbd4LhcLnQ6nWJQ2+12Ojs7aW9vxymtSCEbZFqtVnGlQFr5wuv1YrFYiIiIoLe3V3nuxY4oinR1dWE2mxkyZAjXXHMNl19+OT09PXR2dtLd3c28efMYN24cmzZtorCwkNraWubMmUNkZCR6vV7Jv5aWFlpbW+nq6uJ//ud/iIuLY+HChZSWlrJ9+3aCg4MVmer1elJTUzlw4AAAw4YNY+bMmSxevJj8/HwqKyv7DQ0GBwfzgx/8gJSUFJ588knlY+zo0aMMHz68n8F8IRhIdy0WC5WVlcqqEjfccAPBwcGsWLGCK664AoAtW7awe/du3n33XVwuF5dddhkzZ85k3rx5XHfddURHR4P0/Msvvxy9Xo9WqyUzM5OkpCRE6UPY5XKh0WhITU0F4JprriErK4t//OMfZGZmMm7cOB5++GEOHDjAkiVLuOmmm5QPbz/njoH04EIg16tyu5Sens5vfvMb5s2bp3w8DkYG20dCUlISDz/8MNdff/2gltuFRJ1nU6dO5emnn2by5Mn9wgwWBpt+fROc9Y5noihiNptpamoiODiY+Ph4uru76ejoIC4uTplk5vF4iIyMJDg4mPr6esU3NS0tjcjISIqKioiIiABplYPhw4djs9moqKggMzMTt9tNZ2cnCQkJ9Pb2otFoCA0NxeVyER4eTn19PSaTiYiICNra2ggNDSUkJITIyMgTCqfH46GoqIi4uDg80ioOo0ePRhRFGhoaaG9vJz4+HoPBQHBwMDU1NXg8HuLj4wkKCiIoKAiHw0F1dTVRUVHExsb2q9x7enooLy9XXDLq6+txOp0kJycrBuPQoUOx2+2K3JKSkk5oINQ7np0NoijS29urGN9yvnR0dBAfH68YuYmJiQQHB1NWVkZoaCjR0dFUVFQQHR1NQkICNpuNY8eOkZWVdc78GS/0jmeybDo6OkhJSaGzs5Po6GgsFgv19fXEx8cTHR2tyEuv16PRaIiLi8NgMFBaWkpgYCCpqamYzWYqKytJTU0lOjqa5uZmmpubiY6ORqPRkJCQoLgseL1eSktLWb58OU888YTy0dTa2kpISAh6vZ74+Hg00koLRqORtLQ0GhsbOX78OOnp6RiNRt5++21++tOfKsbghUBeGWLBggX9zttsNhoaGggJCSEuLg6NRqP4qCcnJ+N0OpWPLI/HQ1pamuKfbrFY8Hg8hIaGKj0lvuUDKf9kedpsNgRBUHx1zWYzDQ0NxMXFKSMsNTU1Sr3j+2Gg3vHMz5nT2trKXXfdxY4dO3wvXRDkpm0gvRmM9Pb28v/+3/9Tdjzzc2qsVisjRow4YRUnPwPz2muv0dnZyZNPPul76ZLmrI1cVA2N/NUsqPxdOYNKRu5llIch1c9F9RzfBs/3+kBhBkL+0vcd9pTTofax9H2Hr9gGerdX2r99oHif6prMuTJykd4np0d+l2+6fP+WZSCjTpf6/Nlwxx138Je//OWCGbkMIPuB8nogmajPq+/3zVu3233ChxZS7/qRI0fweDzKl/9A70CVJ/IzPR4P+/fvZ8iQIQwZMuQEHf4mURu5vrK4mPAbuWfHYDNyLzb8Ru6ZYbFY/Nv6ngHfViP3nFgqcqMmSBNM1L/PpMGTJzjJnOw5vs/0vS6f+yo00oQhX+R0yH/L//rGQX2okX+rZaE+/1XXzgfq9Jwsj3z/lo1iGXW6zhXn8llfF1/Z++apb775nve93zdvBzJwkVwWxowZw4gRI/q5rPi+42TvGTt2LMnJySecv5AMprj48XOx4S8/p49fVmfOt1FmF97C8DOoOd+FQm1ED3bOhyx0Op0yMfFM0Gq1/VYJudBcTPno5/zh14Ozwy8/P+eTb6N++Y1cPxeUwWCgDQa+rhwGg5Er+PQ++/l24juC4efMkGXnl6Gf88FgaCsuBGfkkxsdHc2PfvQj39N+ziFydgQEBPDFF18QGRnJxIkTL7mlu0RpaZ9Vq1Yxffp04uPjlSF7PxcXnZ2dHDp0iGuuuabfMn4XA7IPsSAI7Ny5k/T0dJKTk8FvbJw2sh+53W5n3bp13HXXXd/KHqOzQRRFnE4nBw8eJDY2lpEjRypy9XMioijidrt5//33uf/++7+RZTgvZgRpO+vZs2fz9NNP+16+pDkjIzchIYGcnBx/wTuPyLINCQnhscceIy0tjZ/+9KdYrdZLptFVp/EnP/kJv/zlLxk7dqyyfaSfi4vy8nIWLVrECy+8gNPpvGj19LnnnuPqq69m6tSpvpf8nAL5Q6GtrY2HHnqIpUuXKpN6L1ZduBBYLBbefvttsrOzufHGG/314SkQRRGbzca8efPIzc31y+orEASBRYsWIQgCTz31lO/lS5ozMnKTkpJobGxUjBR/BXZ+kBsH9eoKl1qDIafnQi8h5ufsOXbsGK+++uoJS4hdbPz+97/nxhtv9K+ucAaom4+2tjbuvvtutm/ffsnVV98E8uoKEydO5Pbbb/e3s1+B2Wxm5MiRJ+wC6WdgXnvtNTo6Or51Ru4ZOdKpC93pFDw5vCgNuwz0+6tsbN97fP9Wo74+0PlTnRvo+b5x9L1nINRhfMMP9PyBGEi2A507HXzjM9Dv040XAzzj6/JV6fF9h+/vk52TGSidA/09EAOF9b12sr99w8vIzzrZMVBY+W/f877nBkJ2/TjZ9TNloHfLfFVefhUDPZOTyOFUaT/dMCdLx0DnBhMDyeNCI7cFsg7I8TpbnTjXDCS7k+nBhUQty9NtZ7+tCKplLwcLg1Gn1Hwb506c9xS7XC4cDgcejwev16vsXY+kpG63G5fLpfzrdDpxOp1KGPU9vkrtdrvxeDwnKJYo+Tc5HA5l2MzlcikNv9oAUD9DEAQ8Ho/i36OubOR3+Cqw/Ay3243X68Xj8SjpkN8rH+r4y+8733g8HhwOB06nE6/Xq6QXKV2yfNU+TXKa5EX65fSp0+R0OpV88ZXJmTCQH65aNg6HA7vdDqr8lvF6vTidTiV+al1Tp00tcxn5noHweDzY7Xbckh+0WjcdDke/vJb11ffZal1W65taB+S/5X/lfJKvyc+S80GNejhYloOcfjk+vu/7uojS7lGno68DvcvpdNLd3U1PTw9msxmPx4PVaqW9vR273a4812q10tvbq6TNFzk96vLqdDrp6upS3Hnk8y6XC7PZrOSxyWTCarUO+NyLAXV+y7rJSeTt5+TIejxYZTiY4jIQNpvtpPWmn//W26LUTg42WQ12/TofaJ88g5WBX3rpJR599FHf0wPi9XppaWmhrKyM5uZmGhoa8Hg8lJWV0dXVRVRUFFqtlurqakpKSjAajeTl5dHc3Exraytms5nIyEg6OzvZt28fVquV+Ph4kDKqtLSUgoIC4uLiMBqNiNIC+jabjZqaGmpqaujs7FS2AM7Ly8NqtSo7oImiSEVFBYcOHSImJgaDwUB7ezsNDQ2IokhISEg/hWhvb6eyshK9Xq/sqIRkEB06dIji4mLCwsIQRZHc3FwaGhoICgriwIED1NfX09bWhtlsJiYmRomr3GidjE2bNhEdHf21fARFUaS7u5uKigoaGhoUuXZ3d1NZWUlUVBQBAQE0NTVx5MgR9Hq9spSVw+EgPz+fY8eOER0djdPpJCcnh9bWVgIDA9m7dy8dHR20trZit9vPanvUTz/9lNmzZ5OQkNDvvMvlorS0lOPHj9Pa2kpnZydOp5NDhw6h1WoJDw/HZrNx+PBh2tvb6e3tpaCggPb2dtrb29Hr9QQHB1NcXExxcTGxsbGKnng8HjZs2ADSZEp1xdTd3a3obGtrKx0dHbjdbvbt20d7e7uyFbIoilRWVlJSUkJ7eztdXV3K7lwHDx6ktLSUnp4eZbe7yMhIBEHAarVSXl5OXFwcSF/WLpeLuro6ysvL6ejooLe3V/k4KS4uVuISGBhIYGAgqHp5GhoaEASBkpISioqKMJlMyq5i6r3TT6VnX4UgCLS0tGCz2TAajSf0BrS3t5OTk8NNN9004HsOHTrE8uXLlXIRERHBnj17WLhwIXa7nfT0dMxmM1u3biUvL4+wsDDCw8PRarU4nU7q6uqIjIzE6/XS1NSE1+slMDAQj8fDkSNHePfdd6muriY7Oxu9Xk9raysFBQWUlJQQGhpKT08Pq1evpqKigsTEREJCQmAAmWzZsoWsrCyGDh3a7/xgQc7znTt34vF4lPz1TceFwmKxsGzZMn7yk5/4XrrgyDLSaDSYzWYOHTpEWFgYQUFBX1kPf1M4HA727NlDYmKisn38YMJut7N7927Cw8MJDg72vfyN43a7ef311/ntb3/re+mCIwgCx44dw263Kzu5Xmj27duHzWZjzpw5vpcuac5bT25hYSHvvfceZrOZ7OxsvvjiC6qrqyktLeWJJ57g0KFDAERGRlJcXIzRaOSzzz6jqqoKt9vNvffeS0NDAxqNho8++kiZESgIAu3t7fztb3/jnXfeITw8HFTd8MuWLWPDhg1ERESQnJzMK6+8QldXF/v37+fJJ5/EZrOBZNC88cYbLFq0iKCgIFpbW1m8eLGyNbD8LvnYsWMH//znP6murpZS2IdOp+PgwYOsXLkSh8NBeHg4GzZs4MiRIwQGBrJmzRrKy8vxeDzcd9991NbWKnE9nxWryWTirbfeoqKighEjRtDV1cXSpUtxuVy8+OKLfPDBByDFv7GxkZ6eHuVeo9FIbm4ua9asweVyERUVxccff8zx48cxGo28//779Pb20tPTwz333ENHR4fqzWePIAh8+umnrFmzhtTUVKKionj//fcRRZHPPvuMf/zjH9hsNoKDg5Wthtva2li/fj0ej4cVK1bw9ttv43a7aWxs5NFHH2X//v0g6Ul+fj733HOPskWvjMVi4bXXXqOmpoa0tDRMJhMLFy7E4XCwevVqmpubGTZsGD09PXR3d5Obm0tubi4hISE88cQTrF27Fr1ez969e/nss88ICwvDaDRSUFCg9OZu27aNZ599Vsl7r9dLfn4+CxYsIDk5mfDwcPLy8tizZw8bNmygqqoKg8HA+vXrqaysVOIqCALd3d3s2LEDj8eDzWZj4cKFxMXFER8fT1lZGUgfYXLvsNyzLL/XI/XSy73Ebrcbm812wm9RFImJiWH58uUnzeuT6bL8kfCDH/yAUaNGERgYiNVqJTMzk1/+8pds2bKFyspKXn/9dYYOHcptt93Gv/71L0UfNRoNy5Yto6qqiuPHj7Ny5UrlY8XtdhMVFcXtt9+ufCzbbDaWLFnC0aNHuemmm0hOTua9995j7NixeDweduzYcdFN4pSNMDnPLRbLSTcYudBcDHL97LPPiIyMJCoqatAYuDKDKS6+fP7556SkpBAXF9evA8hPfwRpJKm+vh6r1aqcHwwyG8z6db44L0au1+tl5cqV2Gw25s6dS0hICL/+9a+5/PLLiY6OZuTIkbz55ptUVFQQHR1NamoqoaGhxMfHExISwrhx44iMjFQMxdTUVFJSUti8eTNIDudyb56aqqoq9u/fz7hx48jMzCQ2NpZf/vKXpKamMm/ePOrq6igpKQGgtrYWnU5HcnIyGo2GxYsXYzabiY6OHlAZMzMzSUtLG/BaZGQkYWFhisEQFBREcnIyISEhxMfHExoaSnZ2NpGRkRQVFYGk8AM962yQn+nxeCgoKGDTpk3cfvvtREZGcvnll/Pwww8TGhpKRkYGBw4cYM2aNcTGxpKRkaH0bsmEh4cTHh6OU3IHiI6OZvjw4YSGhpKWlkZoaCgTJkxAq9VSWlra794zYSAZmM1mfvOb3/DQQw+RmJjIsGHDeOqppwgKCiI7O5vAwECeffZZkLaajo2NJSwsjLCwMOLi4pg0aZIyHB4TE8P3v/999u7dS0tLCwBHjhzBaDQSHR2tvNPr9ZKXl0dOTg633norsbGxTJ06lf/7v/9Do9EQERFBREQEHo+HtLQ0Ro8eTWRkJNHR0YwePZqkpCTq6urwer1EREQQEhJCWFgYQ4YM4cYbb0Sr1eL1ejl27BiVlZU0NTUhSD2kH3zwAdOmTSMlJYXhw4dz++23k5WVRVlZGeXl5QwbNozvfve7/eKLNLIycuRIIiMjSU5OJjAwkLCwMEwmEzfccAP5+fls2LCBzz//nKamJnbt2kVubi6tra1UV1fz5ZdfsnfvXgoKCrDb7VRXV7N7924KCwvp7u6msbGR3NxcDh8+jE6nY/jw4WzevBmHw9EvHqjy0Tc/o6KimDZtGkOGDCE4OBitVkt2djbZ2dmMHTuWkSNHYjQa2b17NzabjcjISDZu3IjFYgHpI+zXv/41L730Em+//TY/+clPlN5sg8FAcnIy3d3dxMXFMXHiRDZu3Eh1dTWjR4+mqKiILVu24HA4iIqKIjExkby8vJMa6oOVmpoa5aNl06ZNhISEMGzYMPiWNlqni6yLJpOJ8vJyzGazsi29ujd/MMnQt/xcSCwWC2VlZfT09NDS0oLVasVgMPgGu2AMFlnJ8WhoaFDawm3btmGxWPqNCg0GPRssMvsmOS9GbkVFBTabrd+M+fDwcAICArBarTzyyCMkJyezaNEiTCYTqIRfX1/P22+/zfjx47nuuutwOBxER0dz3XXX8fHHH9Pd3c3x48cZN26c0uPU2dmJzWajsLAQvV5PbGys8t5Zs2YREhKC0+nkT3/6E6+//jo2m42VK1dy2223IYoiFouFDz/8kGHDhvHaa6+xePFiRFGktbVV6VGSe+Jkurq6FKMJaWZsVVUVZWVltLW1KeFFUaSpqYl33nmHsWPHctNNNyGeI19JX+QK2+FwsHv3bubPnw9S3IODgxkyZAgWi4U5c+bwve99jxUrVpCbm4tOp8PlcmEymZQ0CYJAV1cXlZWVlJaW0tHRocjb4/FQXV3NO++8w1VXXcXMmTP7xeNMGEgG+/fvJy4uDr1er1wPCQlRDNNf/epXlJWVsWjRIvR6vXKf0+lk8+bN5OTkMHfuXBITEzGZTNx9990UFhZSXV1NYWEhEyZMwGAwKHnf1tZGZ2cnO3bs4IYbbgApXkFBQYwYMQKP5Gfd1dVFTk4OBw8eVN5pNptZtGgROp2OG264AY1Gg9frxWQyUVtby65du5Te4kOHDjF69Gh+8IMf8MILL4CkRzt37mTs2LHKM41GI9nZ2Vx55ZXs2LGDRx55BKfTSUpKihIGYPXq1cq21B7Jz7Wmpoa1a9ficrlYsmQJb7/9NhUVFYrbxrZt2/jiiy8oKiri448/5siRI2zfvp3PPvuM3NxcRFGkoKCAtWvXcvToUerq6li8eDFNTU3Mnj2btWvXKqMhak5WgQvSRhEmkwlRFJU1aAFycnKYOHEimZmZ/YwNm83Wr7xVVVUxduxYhgwZQmVlZb9rsptKWVkZJSUligtNUlISS5YsYd26dXglP0y9Xn9eyt35Zv/+/bz//vvs3r0bs9ncT4Z+BkZUdSJYLBbee+89tm3bxurVq8nKyiI1NdX3Fj8+yO3i9u3bWbVqFUOHDiU9Pf2iKz/fFMePH+eTTz5h27ZtNDQ0KB/2fi4s58XIlXs15a9mVMaMIPklPvPMMzQ1NfHuu+9isVgUQyAmJoZDhw4phpNGo8FgMJCdnY3b7Wb16tV4vV7S0tJA8mPKzc0lPz8fQZqIoh4iUA/P3nzzzdTW1rJ+/XqSkpLQarVoNBo8Hg+tra384Ac/4Ic//CEvvviiYvSoeykFQUCr1eJyuSguLmbHjh10dHSg0WgIDg4mKSmJ1NRUwsPDlQZbEATCwsIoKipi+vTpyjnZ0D2XyDLW6XRERUUpvT8ayf8X6d0Oh4N58+Yxc+ZM/vWvf1FeXo7dbufQoUPs2LEDk8mERqMhNDSUpKQkUlJSiIiIUAwqjUZDVFQUhw4d4rLLLuv37jNF7S4gExkZqXz8qI0flzR5MD09nT//+c9s2bKFdevWKb0LwcHBij+u3IiJkn/11Vdfza5du1izZg1jxozBaDSCZEDl5ORQVlZGTEyM0tPvmzd6vV7pvVb7y0VHR1NVVUVsbKziZwsQGBhIfHw8M2fORCPtBLVq1SrS09MZO3Yse/fuxeVyYTD8//beO76qIm/8f5/bktyb3gshBUgA6U0QEaQIVhTFuu5adl193HVd62PZVXHdR0VEsawoomKhKlJswNJCk16SAGmQ3ntyS277/fG95/xODklIFMgNnvfrlVfumZkzZ+ZzZs58ZuYzMz4EBgZSW1sr3etyuairq2Ps2LGsWLGC3r1789Zbb0mzACItsgVpGo0GX19fIiMjueKKK9BoNISHhzN16lSefvppYmNjGTx4MEFBQWg0GqKiooiLi2Py5MkEBQWxZs0aCgoKuOqqq7jvvvsoLi6muLiYIUOGMGHCBMkeOD8/v8PFFEq5iRw9epTq6mrJvry0tBSr1cqgQYPAMyorTsEnJydLvx0OB7t37+YPf/gD9913H7t27ZIWq7ndboKDg3n00Ue5/fbb2b59O4GBgQQHB9O3b1+Cg4PRaDQEBgZis9mor68nMDAQg8EgS5n3M336dKKjo5kzZw7R0dGkpKQog6goEDydK7fbTXR0NEOHDuWbb77B4XBIbYc30l796Q4iIyMZNmwY3377Lc3NzfTr108ZpFvxJlkBXHrppSQmJvLaa68RGhrK2LFjlUG6HW+T2YXgTA3jVyD2nqOjoxk4cCCHDh0iJyeH+vp68vPzaW5uxmw2S6Ojr732Gtu2baO6uhq73U5dXR0A8+fPZ/HixaSlpdHc3ExtbS3BwcFcc801rFmzhkGDBlFTU0NjYyM6nY7ExESioqIYM2YMYWFhHDhwgJKSEhobG8nMzJRG6xoaGnjsscd48803mTFjBtXV1VRVVSEIAldeeaVk8zhu3DiMRiN9+/aVFJeWlhbq6+uxWCzo9Xri4uLo168ffn5+NDU10dLSIhnkC55RULFh1Wg0zJs3j88++4y0tDRJ8T4fuN1uDAYDkydPJj8/n4MHD1JTU0NpaSn5+fnYbDZJznfddRfx8fHs3r0bo9FIXFwcffv2Ra/X09DQQEtLC6GhoQQGBmI2m6msrMRms1FZWYlOp2PevHksXLiQvXv3dqj4dJXhw4eTmprK6tWrpcVfp0+flspIbW0tgwcP5o477mDt2rUIno5TdXU1s2fPJikpiY8//pjCwkKampooKyvj7rvvZuvWrcTGxoJnBNBsNhMWFkZiYiIxMTFMmzaNrKwsDh06RG1tLSUlJeTk5GCz2WhoaKC5uZnIyEicTid5eXk0NTVRWVnJk08+SVNTE8uWLaO5uZnm5mbsdjv+/v5SZ2rv3r306dOH6Oho+vXrx+DBg1m4cCFRUVH84Q9/YOXKlZSWllJRUUF5eTknT55k06ZNOBwOHnroIRITE6msrATZhyogIEAaya6pqaGpqYmAgADGjRuH2zNK3dDQgNVq5fvvvyczM5PAwEBqamqorq7GYrFgsVioqakhPj6e4uJiNm7cSF5eHpGRkeTn51NSUkJUVBQ+Pj7YbDZ69erVpj3o2To5DodDsoE+efIkixYt4vjx4/z000+UlJRw9913U1tby+bNm/njH/9ISEgIeOK9/fbb8fPzw9/fn3vuuUdS7BsbG/n+++9JS0sDz6xNbGwswcHBnDx5ksTERB544AHi4uLIz8+nrKyM8ePHn2H24e0EBwdz2WWXcf/99zNmzBilt1dxtnJwIZGnZdasWUyZMoVx48ZJC5hVzs5NN93ElVdeKdUtkd+istQRbs9i8gkTJvCnP/2p1cycSvdyTndXkI+6xcfH43K5qKioQK/XY7VaCQgIoKGhAb1eT3h4OIGBgfTp04fw8HDCwsIoKSkhLCyMIUOGEB8fT0ZGBvHx8TQ3N9O7d2969+6NyWRi7NixnD59msDAQMaMGUN0dDShoaGSXW95eTktLS1oNBpaWloIDAykoKCAiIgIhg4ditFoZPjw4RQUFOB2uxk1ahR9+/YlLy9PUpZ79epFTEyMtAhNVHKSk5OJjo4mJCSEmJgY9Ho95eXl6HQ6+vfvj8FgoLi4mKCgIOLi4igvLyc0NJShQ4cSHx9Peno6qampGI3Gs34ourq7glz+AQEBxMXFkZWVhdFoxGq1otfr0el0NDc3ExMTQ2BgIAkJCcTGxpKYmEhsbKz0ISstLcXX15cBAwag0+k4deqUNFpZVFRETEwMQ4cOJSwsjJycHCnv7i6OUK9YsaLN3RWGDh3Kvn37pF0UXC4XoaGhlJeXExgYSGhoKNHR0SQlJREWFoZer6e5uZm+ffsyZswYKioqcDqd+Pj4oNFoSEpKwuFwcP311+NwOCgvL2fUqFFSBykkJISgoCBiYmLIzs7G19cXm82GRqPBYDBQV1dHSEgIbreb8vJyydzB6XRyySWXkJKSQkFBAf7+/jgcDkwmEykpKZLt344dOxgxYgQJCQn4+flJnbdx48aRmJhIXl6etJuA4Bn9r6yspLGxkcbGRmJjYxk2bFir6a/CwkKSk5Pp1asXRUVFkomQyWTC5dndJDw8nEsuuYSamhqcTidBQUEEBATg7+8v2bs3NTVx+eWX43A4yMzMpHfv3owcOZKjR4+Sm5srdX62bdtGXFwcQ4cObaXoVlVVsWfPnlamOEp0Op1Uz/Pz86mpqQFPvUpNTWX8+PGUlZVRWlrKddddR0BAAG63G51O12rkVafTSSP3ZrOZPXv2YDabSUhIYMiQIcTFxREVFUVubq5km+/v2SlFrIcmk6nNdHrz7gqxsbEMGjTIq6c/m5ubWbVqFffcc4/Sq1uQfw81Gg1Dhw5tpah5GzabjV27dnnV7gqCIDBs2LBWJjLKetNdtLS0eMXuCvJyFhISwsCBA3/VjkPni59//hmr1fqb212hSyeexcTEtDJBOBtOp5PGxkZplNNgMGC1WmlpacFoNKLT6RBke9OKDby4TVFTU1OrAiQqhnbPfqA6nU5SQuRYLBZpBXVQUBBut1symhcbSHGkS/DY6omjl1qtVmoU8RRgl2e/VYfDgVarxWAwSNPsLs8epU6nU0qHzWbD7Xbj4+MjjdqKaW9qakKn0+Hn59dmQytHfuLZL0HMo9lsxs/Pj4CAAGw2G3a7vZWyIM8rshX5LpdLUuZaPHuvGgwGadTWz89PypOPj4+k5Lo9vdrO0NaJZ6JcHA4HNTU16DzmFw6HA6tnz1z5O3LK9vIV82W327FarWg8NrJieRPLgk6nk5RROW63m6amJqxWK76+vgQEBGC1WrF79hK22+34+fnh6+srlQkx7xaLBbvdLpl1iJ0KQRBo9iykErefs1qtuN1u9Ho9BoMBu91OTU0NBoOBgIAAtFotDodDel8mk0katRXfkzhSP378eGkGQafTSQqoWA6NRiNOp5Pm5maMRqNUd0Q5i2XX7dmr19fXV5KPxWLB6Nlm6bPPPmPmzJmttiYDOHHiBPPnz2/3xDN5+RLtY+XlXkyHHGWZ7Axt3aOM2+VySdPYyriffPJJrr/+evXEs19IRUUFs2fPZtu2bUovlU7Q0NDA3LlzGT58OLNmzVJ6qygwm83069eP4uJipZdKGyxYsIDa2lpeeOEFpddFTec0kV+IVqslODiYyMhISQH08/MjKChIaojFcAaDAX9/f2kFNp7RSNFNbMTxKA/iQiSxcXbJNpD38/MjLCyM0NBQqeEPDAyUFDY8DaEYt96zICUoKEgaecPTQLo9CpvBYMBkMkkjg3I/X19fKR4xbQEBAVKe/P39pYY9ICBAWh1+IfD39ycyMpKAgAAAKU2iTSqeUQ5Rtm63G61Wi9FoxN/fH51nJE3Mk4+Pj/Q+REVWzKt8QdCvQVSGdDodkZGRhIaG4nK5pA6Iv7+/pCwhG93z9/eXFHeDwUBgYCD+nl0OxPLmdrul96hUcEX/gIAAIiIipNFEHx8fAgICCA4OJiIiQpKL2HEQlU8/z+4GonwMBoOURjHdoqyNRqMUxu1RdsURZVExFstSSEiIVEaRHQyQkJDAoEGDcDgc+Pn5YTQapWcKgiC54aljohzE/Pv6+uLj44PRaESr1aLT6aS84ZGrqHCbzWamTp0qmRF0FbG+KPMgdxOv3Z3vd0thxXjaul/u1tnOl4qKiopKz6dLX3x5Y9RVxIa3vWslHfm1RXvxKdMsD9NRPsT4xPBt/W/reW0hb8jltOV2LmkrfrmbMn/KPHeGtuLrzP1y5aQtlHEo45WnW44ynJKO/GjD/2zx0cY9cuT3t1UGlddnk4cYn3jdr18/wsPDW8XRXprbi5sO7hExmUwkJCRIHdD2aOsZgmcRkDztynyI4ZR/Z0MMI/6Xd9hE97biUl4raSsfKmdHlKsqv3ODKse2kXdcVTrPb1FmXVJyRc7WQFxo2mrERJSNYGf96MC9q5yreC4EyrQqrzvibPKUc7awSveuXrfH2cKdzf/X0Jm4f0kY+YhxR3QmTHt0pNzKR0c7+4zOhruQCJ7dU8TfKl1Dq9VKclPl13WENjpkqhzbRiknlbPzW5VZl2xyo6OjpdObhB6432RPIiAggMcee4w+ffrw0EMPYTabLzp5BwQEcOedd/K3v/2NIUOGSLa+Kj2L7OxsPvroI956663zunPI+UQQBObMmcP06dMZM2aMZLur0nlqamr485//zNq1a7G1cWCISvsInrUN7733HoMHD+aGG26Q1qiotI3FYmHChAkcOXIEu92u9FbxICq3H330EU6nky7sNXBR0CUlNywsjFtvvfWsU80qvx6DwcD27dsJCgpi6NChPVZ5aA9BEDAYDHz//fcMHz6c8PDwc2bTq3JhaWxs5PDhw0yaNEna3qunIO+s79u3j7i4OK9ege+tuN1uLBYLmzdvZubMmT2uHHgDLS0tpKenExgYSGpqqirDs9DS0sLKlSu5++671bajA8SO0rFjx5g8eTIvv/yyMshFTZeU3KioKLZt29Yl5dYtWxAi/69EjFPup7xHee/Z3DtCHkaeH7lbV+PsDJ2Nx9/fn+eff57ExETuu+++VgdcdBa5TJX5Fd068lf+VtKe/DuLyWTigQce4MEHH5QO+7jQdJT29vzac5cjl217nE3Obfm39Z+zPOd8c+rUKT799FP+/e9/S6NPbaVLmce28qf8LV6LyPMu91M+U/l8pdyUCILA3LlzmThxImPGjGn1TG9Emb/uxu12U11dzeOPP85XX33ldSNryveuvO5uBEGgsbGRxYsX079/f6699lqvk6GIt8jObDZzzTXXsHPnTq+VlbcgCAKff/45Op2Ol156Sel9UdMlJberW4ip/Dp+7RZiPYG2thBT6Vnk5OTwxhtv8MEHHyi9ehRPP/00M2fO/FXHVP+Wqa6u5uabb2br1q1KL5VO0NjYyBtvvMHw4cO58cYbld4qCtQtxLrGu+++S1VV1W/OXOGCGJ25ZSshxd/t/cmnHeT3yd3k2w8p45X/buv+9vw7cuuKv/K3kvbczwfyZynT315a23JXprmteHoqyvS7FdvRKWlLPvJr5X0dTaN1Vo7tPacz914IHA7HGWlElve20ir+VspaKS/5ffL4xLDKeOUonyV3byu8y+XqltmEX0pbeehOetr0envloLsQy7iyDngL8vqk0vMQ11L91jhvSq7D4aCqqoqGhgZcngMT2ppScLvdUiMpeLYaKi0tpbGxsdVH0+l0UlFRQX19PYLnQAhx+lH+8iorK6mvr5fibasBdnkOdxDtXOvq6s744IkNnngwgvw++Z/Dc0CBGM7uOTRAvFd8pvz5FovljOedD1yeU68aGhoQBIGWlpZWjbj8o2W1WnE4HJJMRdlZrVZcLhc2m026Fg+KkL/P852X84VYbmpqaigvL5fkJOZN3uC43W7snoNIxHtra2upra2V3rtIZWUlNTU1CJ49f5XycbvdNDY2YrPZ2lWu5PfU1tZKh5cgS7d4qER301Ya7HY7ZWVlUvkT5aU8njg/P5/09HSam5vRaDRkZWWRkZFBY2PjGfGK106nU3o3gmfRTkZGBhkZGRQUFGCz2RAEgcrKSioqKnC5XFitVqqrqykpKWlT3j2FvLw86Thylc4jL0unTp1qVZ+8BWV59yYEQSAvL0862Eal5+HN5et8cU6VXFGAmZmZLFq0iLy8PLZv387cuXPJzc3liSee4JtvvpEaPEEQeO655/joo4+w2WxUV1fz9NNPU1ZWxtGjR7nvvvsQBIHi4mLeeOMNTp8+zb59+3jmmWc4fvw4eLYv0mg0nD59mv/85z8cPnyY9PR0/vd//5fCwkKeeeYZ3n77bRobG8FTURcvXswrr7yCw+Hgk08+4fe//z133HFHq4+eRqPh6NGjPPLII+zatQuNRoPT6eTrr79m7969rFq1ivnz51NZWYmvry/3338/W7ZsQa/XM2fOHN577z3ee+89Hn/88VbKYGVlJf/zP/9zXnpVovxdLhfFxcXMmTOHoqIi9uzZw//+7/+Sk5PDK6+8woIFC6RnC55V5YsWLZJWk7s9hxM88cQTrFq1SlLmZ8yYQXl5OU1NTUyZMoWNGzfyzDPP8MUXX/zivHRnpXN7Ohzz5s3j4MGDlJaW8uSTT7Jr1y5WrFjBXXfd1WqF/bp163j00UexWCw0NTWxaNEi0tLSKCgo4C9/+QuHDh1CEAReeeUVDh06RFlZGffeey8lJSWtntnS0sLXX3+NIAjs27ePO++8E71e366y63Q6efXVV9mwYYPk5vZ0Crds2UJhYWGbivSFRHz/SkXinXfeYcuWLZLbt99+y4oVK6SOwqFDh1i+fDmff/45TU1NbNy4kfz8fBYtWsS8efMkG1+73c7rr78ulcUjR46QlpaGIAjU1NTw1VdfsWzZMj7//HOWLVuGXq9n7969LF++nNraWrRaLe+88w4nTpygoqKCr776ivr6eildPYnTp09LxyJ7G91ZBjtCrC8Au3fvpqGhQTqgyFvT3N24FQMxmZmZ2Gw2SW7djfreVDrDOVVyBUGgoKCAlStXEhISwpgxY7jmmmu4/PLLpVOrFi5cSE5ODnhGJPbv349Go0Gv13PDDTdw3333MWTIEEaNGsVdd91FUVERb731FsOGDWPMmDFMnDiRWbNmSaNBeGxzPv30U/z9/Zk2bRqXX345V1xxBSaTiYkTJ7J8+XIqKirAowB+8803NDc3YzAYuOSSS/j0009JSEjgq6++kuIESEhIoHfv3hw+fBg8jXZERAQjR45Ep9NJR8XiaXgiIiLAcyJbfHw8f/7zn9m7dy8//vgjeEbdvv76a0khOR+V1O05lvbpp5/mxhtvZOTIkUyYMIE777yTiooKoqKiyM7OJjc3F0EQOHz4MOvXr0fwjKK7ZUfyOp1OoqOj0Wq1mEwm9u7dS2hoKP7+/uzfv59rr72Wu+++m+eee06ZjB6BIAi8+uqrxMTEMGnSJIYMGcKDDz5IeXk5iYmJ5OTksHnzZgCKior4+uuv8fPzIzg4mHfeeYe6ujpuuOEGhg4dyqRJk4iLi+PBBx9kwIABTJw4kQEDBvDYY4+1GtF3uVxs3rwZp9MpnaKWm5sLwOHDh1m7di14Vg6LR2KLZUxcfCjOTthsNqZPn87bb78tjRqfjzLVVURlIiQkhLCwsFbbScXFxREUFCTJ5Ouvv8Zms/HII48QGRnJpZdeysSJE3n11VdJT0+Xwul0Om688UbmzJnDvn37OHLkCFdeeSUAgYGB3HXXXcyZM4errrqK5ORkGhsb2bBhAzExMaSkpIBnxLiwsJD6+nppdqYnIJYbgL179+JyuYiJiZH8vIlf2tk9H4jfWFF+oqzS09MxGAySsuZNafamtOBpL8Wyt2fPHux2u3RKo0rPw9vK14XgnCq5AAcPHiQvL48ZM2aAR6iXXnop0dHRTJkyhcLCQk6ePCmFHTFiBAEBARw6dAiDwUDv3r0RPNtLTZ8+naamJlasWMH06dNxe0YYhw8fzmWXXSZVvp9//pnKykr69u0rpWPKlClERUURERHBwIED2bJlCw6HgyVLlnDdddfh6+srpc3X15eIiAj69esHso9jeHg4/fv3l/bhM5vNBAcHS8fyWq1WKisrpSl8sQAJninqgoICmpqaGDlyJHa7nZMnT5KYmEhISMh5GckVqaqqYtOmTQwfPhyXy4Wvry8DBgygT58+XHLJJcTHx7NmzRrwTCnrdDpJkUI2Ra/T6WhoaKCiooLq6mopzWK6m5qaSE9PZ9iwYdK9XeV8yaCzvPvuu9xwww0IHiU/MTGRq6++msjISKZNm8bChQvBIyeA0NBQsrOzqampYcSIEeApLzfffDMGg4H9+/cTGxsrHS88aNAgoqKipHza7XY+/PBDbr31VvDMGIiyP378OGVlZeTn57N+/XpWr17NqlWrcLlcGAwGLBYLf/vb30hLS0Oj0bBy5UqampqIjIwkPz9fem/difJ9yssLngMD5KPj999/PxqNhkceeYScnBzp6OGCggKmTZvW6nCGPn36MHLkSD788ENuu+02SXERj3vGI8/Q0FC2b99OdnY2xcXFvPzyy6SnpzN37ly++OIL6RsQHBwspcObWb16NR999BF4tgESPMeDq5wdQRA4deoUX3zxBadOneKnn34iJiaG3r17gxd2EryJiooKvvjiC06cOMGmTZsIDg4mMTER2qjn3YE3pEHF+znnSm5TUxMtLS0EBQVJbmJD5XK5uOeee9i1axd79uzB398fvV6P4BkBDg0NRSM7/hPPR0hUMETlU6fT4XQ6ycjIID8/n6qqKmw2W6tTmXx9fcGjiP71r39l3bp10rSxUsm0Wq2EhIQwefJkysvLOXz4MHl5eQAMGTKEmJgYvvrqKxwOB3q9XnqGaIcr2quKSoYgCNTV1XHrrbeyYMECYmNjqa+v56effiIhIYHa2lrKysqkeM4VYn6ampowmUySu9g58PHxISoqikGDBlFcXMy6devQ6XSMHj1asnE8ceIEGRkZUnx2j+2yzWaTGgRxZGT9+vUsXbqUL7/88hc3Fr/0vnOF1WqVFC+3Z0rT398frVZLcnIy0dHRrFy5kqKiIsaPH4/dbsdisUgjGiI+Pj5UVFTg6+vbaoRI8HTYxGun0ylNs4uIMoiNjcXX1xeTyUSvXr0IDw8nKyuLgoICNBqN1GGrqalhy5YtDB06lKCgIPz8/Ni8ebNkh9odMm3rmW01QmI40a9Pnz48//zz9OvXTxrxdblc7Nmzh9/97nf4+vpK9f7YsWNUV1fz3HPP8cYbb2C1Wlt9K44fP05lZSWTJ08mIyOD/v3788gjj1BWVsbJkyfZtGkTTzzxBA0NDXz11Vc9xrYwISGB6upqnn32WUJDQ7n88svBI8u2ZNydtFUOuhO3201ycjI5OTmsXLmSjIwMYmNjpe9jd9WXnkBUVBSFhYWsW7eOEydOkJiYSGBgIHjhe1ZRaY9zruT27t0brVZLWloaeCqDxWIBzwklN998M9nZ2Xz44YeMHz+egIAAHA4Ho0eP5tixYzQ0NOB2u3E6nZjNZvR6PTExMVRWVkojQHa7nezsbJYsWcLq1asRPCMbop2a2+2mrq4Ol8fGsX///kRFRfHCCy8wfvz4VspwXV0d27dv5+abb6auro5jx46xaNEiycQgOTmZgQMH8t577+FyuaStrpxOJyaTifj4eEnREHE6nURGRvLiiy+yaNEi6urqOHLkCHv37uUf//gH27dv55133pHCn0sEQSAyMhKXy0VdXZ2kvFksFsxmMzabjZEjRxIaGsratWsJCgpCp9PhdrspLi7mm2++4csvv6SmpgaXy0VERAQJCQnExsZKceEZMbv55pvp27cvX331ldTYigpJZ+nuRjo5OZkjR47gdDpxe+xlm5qacDgc9O7dm2nTpvHBBx+g0WiIjY2lpaWF6OhoHA6HZGYA0NzcTP/+/XE6nWeY0oin1YlKibyjJJZRETEN2dnZlJWVodVqcblcOJ1OLBYL999/PwcOHGDHjh3ExcVJ93RF5ucbMS3uNnZPwFM/xDpeX1+P3W4nNTWVwMBAHA4HK1asYPTo0dTV1UkdXKfTydGjR/njH/9Inz59uPvuu9m1a1er5zU0NNDiWUzap08fwsPDwWMiER0dzYYNG9BqtXz++efU19dLdvrezsiRI4mNjSUrK4vExERplqC7605beFOa5B2gO+64g127dhEeHi7NwMjDqbTN3Xffzb59+9DpdAwfPlxyV2Wm0lM450ru2LFjueKKK/jhhx8oKyujtLSUkydPUllZKSmXN910E4MHDwbPKK/NZiM6OpoHHniApUuXkpeXR3l5OTt27CA8PJy//e1vvPLKKxQXF1NYWEhGRgapqanMnTuXRx99lFtuuYV+/fqxa9cusrOzKS8vJzMzk4aGBmpra2loaODPf/4zgYGBREdHt3ru0qVLCQwMJC8vj82bNzN16lTef/99Hn74YanxHDJkCFdffbXU4CJrwEWbQZPJJCnzGo2G5uZmrrvuOpKSkli6dCkTJ05k1apVfPzxx9x9993MnTtXiutcIaY3ODiYxx9/nPnz51NUVERBQQEHDhzA7XZTX19PVFQUffv2JTY2luTkZPR6PU6nk/j4eJ577jleffVVaVRd3JHB7XYTExODzWbDZrMRFRUFwGOPPcaaNWvIyspqU6E5G10Nf6554403eP/998nLy6OyspL09HQaGxtpaGhAo9GQkpLCgAEDSElJweFwYLfbiYyMZOrUqaSnp7Nv3z4qKys5fvw4ZrOZv//97+zevZuDBw9SVVXFli1bpBFWPI3D6NGjJcXWZrO1mmqvra3l0KFDnD59WlKqm5ub8fHxQeMxbRA7VWKcZrOZ4cOHS8pzdzRAbT3TbrfjcrkwGo2Sm1jvzGYz+fn5vPvuuyxZsoSBAwcSGxvLmjVrWLNmDf/61794/PHHJdnpdDruueceqaOQlJTE1KlTWz1Pr9cTGhoKwLXXXktISAibN29m2LBhxMXFMWnSJGw2G8ePH2f69OmtZpu8ndmzZ/PZZ5+1UjRUOs/AgQP57LPPuPnmm5VeXkV3fw/luN1uEhISWLRoEb///e/brOMqPQtvKl8XivNyGITdbicrK4uioiKioqJISUlBr9dTXV0t2ZJptVr0ej1FRUVotVqio6PR6XQcO3aMvLw8BgwYQExMjDTSe/z4cQoLC+nTpw9RUVEEBwdLDR6elycuqBKndY1GI7m5uURGRkojvUFBQVRWVmKxWIiNjSUjI0MyXUhMTCQsLEzKhxi/3W6nqakJX19faRSltLQUm81GXFwcer2e3NxcAgMDCQ8P59SpUxiNRiIjI3G73WRmZpKSkoKvr6800hcdHX3Wj0ZXD4MQX6XgmRZPT0+nsLCQSy65hLCwMHx8fKiurpbsHp1OJ35+fhQVFSEIgvQOxLhycnIwGo3ExMRgt9s5deoU8fHxaDQa8vPz6d27N35+flRXV9PQ0EBiYmKrUfLO0J2HQYjvNzc3l2PHjtG3b1+ioqIICwuTOmWBgYFYLBaCgoKorq6mpqaGmJgY/P39KSgoID09nZCQEAYMGEBgYCAajYZTp05x/Phx4uPjiY2NJTg4WJqFcDqd/PDDD/j5+TFlyhSqqqqora0lOTmZ5uZmCgsLiYqKoq6ujqamJoxGI8HBwdICtNDQUJYtW8bEiRNJTEzE4XDw7LPP8swzzxASEtKqTlwoTpw4wZtvvsmHH34IsnJot9ulVewmkwm3Z1Gk1WrF398ff39/Kioq0HjsaDUaDfX19VJ91Ov1rRTk9hDLu2iyJNZRh8NBZWUlAQEBUkeivLwct9tNRETEGWX1ySef5Prrr+eKK65o5e4NyD/TF/r9dpaKigpuvfVWrz4MQv6N9DYaGhp4/fXXGTFiBLNmzVJ6dwtiXcQLZaYeBtE1FixYQE1NzW/uMIhzquS29yFWKqNtVZaO3GmjgimT3Z7/2Z7bHu3Fr4xXSWfyKnI2/64qucjiPFvctJEX5bU8nNJNROnn9kydi0rd2Zg9ezbPP/98tyi57aHMU2fpSH7y306nk//+979cdtllko2b6Ke8V+5eWVnJ9u3bpeMsw8LC2LdvH2FhYfTu3VsyO6GNNJxPTpw4wfz586VFerRTDuT5ayuv7bm1h7ycy/+39Vz5PaKb8lneruTK8+mNVFRUMHv2bLZt26b06naU5cgbZeiNSm53fE86i6rkdo3fqpLbOU3Eg7yBaAtBtv+t0r2t33Lk7m01Skrkz2orjNK9rTDInqXMU3vxK6+VKMN2xNn85SjT1x5inJ2JW5kX5bXcXUSZDmV4wbNLQUco4/A2lHlSIipSSpTyU5ZjUTZ6vZ6rrrpKMnWRh2kL0d1oNJKQkCApuAApKSkkJCRII/DKNFwI2pJHW+VAWdZEOmpIxfy09Se/R/6/refK7xHdOkKZn+5GmU9vxVvT11bZ8RbaK2vtuV9IvFFeIm4v7vCpeA8dayPtcL4LljJ+5fW5xJsbD3mavCV95yId3pivrtDZD39HZUuj0RASEqJ07hCTycSoUaMku1OAoKCgM6bdLzSdlUd7/Jp7zyXyfHhLmnoSv7Yc/FaRlzlVfirni99q2eqSkisf9fSGXuZviYtJ3vLy4/KCvV17AvK6523I0+SN6essbtmhCz05HxcasT4ry4Eqw84h/xYq5abKsG28+Xvorcjtq39LdMkmNyIigmeeeQa3zD5M5fzg6+vLihUriIiIYOLEidjt9otO3r6+vnz00UdMnTqVXr16nTF9r/L/4831raKigu3bt3Pbbbd16R2e7zx1JX5BEFi/fj0DBgwgOTlZ6a3SDmKj6XK5MJvNLFmyhL/+9a+ttsVTOTuCIGC1Wtm6dStxcXEMGzZMleFZsNvtvPrqq7z00kuqrNpArJuivrZ9+3aGDBnCnDlzlEEvarqk5Irbeamcf3x8fPj2228JCwuTDiG42DAYDHz++edMnDiR2NhYdVS3h1JZWcnu3bu56aabuqTkehOCIPDjjz+SmppKQkLCb3LE45cg70g0NTWxcuVK/vjHP0p7Iaty7ByCIGCz2dixYwdRUVEMGTKkx9alC4Hb7cbhcPD222/z1FNPqW1HJ9izZw8jR45UldyOiI2NlU4NUzn/PPbYY6SkpPDggw8qvS4abrvtNp577jmGDBmi9FLpIRQWFvLqq6/y3nvvKb16FM8++yyzZs1i1KhRSi+VTtDU1MTMmTP573//q/RS6QRNTU289dZbDBs2jOuuu07praLAbDaTkpJCUVGR0kulDRYuXEhJSQkvvfSS0uuipks2uSJd0ItVfgUul+uitBF0K2xyL6a8/RZpbm6WTho711zIsmG321udTueNeGO6RHmZzWZp9NEb0+mtiN94l8uF1WqV6pL6bWwft8x+XqVziMem/9bokpLbHRVO2eAor88n5/M5ncmHcI5We3fmWRcSeb68mXMlM2U84vsQ3eXXbbkr7/NGlPvStpcHm82G1WqVrpGdjCZHVDbPhjxMS0uLdOqg/PlWq1Uy97HZbGc1/fGG8qnMu3gtCILXdX7l8pKnU6VztCcrjUbTrt9vHcGzVaA3lP/2vtFuL1TEldsr/hbQvtiFnYHnzZvHE0880amKd/r0aZYtW4bb7SYuLg63xz5r3bp17N+/H4PBwJo1a/j555/ZuXOndIpZZWUly5Yt48SJEyQmJkpHlYoIgkBNTQ0FBQWEh4dL8ZaXl5OWlsbJkyc5fvw4zc3NhIWFodPp2Lp1K8eOHWPfvn3SiWhfffUVDoeDmJgYKe78/HyWLl1KQkICJpNJel5ubi6fffYZDQ0N9OnT54z8r1+/nuXLlxMbG9vqxDSR1atXc/z4cY4ePUp4eLh0+hIdfOAAfvrpJ8LCwhg9erTSq11cLhcFBQUsX74cPz8/IiMjJffDhw+zadMmNBoNP/zwA9u3b+fIkSP4+fkRERHRKp7q6mqWLVtGRkYGffr04ejRo6xcuRKLxUJFRQUrV67k2LFjHD58mEGDBv3ibaxWrVrFFVdcIR233B24XC5ycnL44osvSExMlN6P2Wxm8+bNHD58GJvNxrp169i1axc5OTkEBQURHBxMZmYmy5cvp7GxkdjYWOlABkEQKC0txWKxoNfrWblyJTt37qR3796typYYVl4OlO5yxUEQBDIzM3G73dIpYqJfd1FVVcWePXu4/vrrJTdBEMjJyWHx4sVoNBri4+PJysri0KFDHDlyBJvNRmxsLCtWrGDBggVkZGQwYMAAjEYj33zzDZWVlRQUFBAfH4/gOdFs69atJCUlgWdqNyMjQ6q/+fn5bN26lYKCAmpqaoiPj8dqtbJv3z4KCwuJjo6mqKiIgwcPsmvXLunUOjkbN26UbHK7m/bepyAI0hHaYvrbC3uhaW5uZtWqVdxzzz1KL5UOEN+fzWZj586dxMTEMGDAAGUwFQV2u5133nmHxx9/XOnVLSi/4RkZGVitVoKDg1uF6y5+/vlnLBYLkyZNUnpd1Jw3tT4mJobc3FyWLFlCU1MTgiBQX1/P559/TmNjI4mJiXz++ef06tWLcePG8dBDD1FfX4/RaOTEiRNkZmZKx3OKjbsgCNTV1fHhhx+ybNkyya+goIDvv/8eQRAYOnQoUVFRHDlyhObmZhYuXEhhYSH9+vXj0ksvZceOHQBkZ2fz5JNPSr1li8XCZ599xo8//thKeW5qaqKlpYXU1FQOHz7Mnj17WuUzOzsbPz8/UlNTmTNnzhn2QatXr6a5uZlLLrkEl8slnc5yPhomMc0mk4kjR45IBuaCIFBdXc3ixYvZuXMnycnJVFVVUVdXR1xcHB9//DF79+5tFU9wcDB79uzB7Xaj1WpJSkritddeIzY2lpiYGF577TUuu+wyjEYjf/rTn2Sp6BqiktZduD0976CgIHbs2MHixYslv9LSUubNm0ddXR0ajYb9+/fj5+eH2+3mk08+4fTp06SkpLBz506Ki4vx9fWV3oHNZmPDhg0IgoBOp6OhoYGTJ09iMpmksqxEdBfjoJ2Rsd69e7NhwwbKysrajKc7aOs9CoJAVVUVBQUFAJw6dYrGxkYSEhLYs2cPW7ZsoV+/fjz44INs2bKF0tJSvv/+e+rq6ujfvz/vvPMOLS0tCJ7Ry4aGBjZs2EBDQwOLFy+WOmYlJSVs3LiRXr16gedjbrVa+e6776ioqGDEiBEYjUYWLFhAS0sLgwYNYvny5dTU1LRKr7cjeL5/2dnZNDc3K71VVFS6Afk3WP67sLCQ2tpa6VqlezhvSq6Pjw9Tpkzh9OnT7Ny5E4B9+/bR1NREnz598PX1xWq1kpKSwqWXXsqePXuwWq2YTCYCAgIwmUwYDIZWDT+eEZycnBwqKytpamoCz2hgVlYWV111FfHx8YwZM4bLL7+cmpoa1qxZQ//+/enfvz/9+vXjgQceIDAwkJCQECIjI9m0aRN4eoWiMiMO6bvdbnx8fOjbty/Dhw9n4MCBhIeHS3kEiIyMZNy4cdx6660UFBTQ2NjYyr+srIxVq1YRGxvLTTfdJI2stqUU/FrECubv7094eDharZb9+/eDZ1SypaUFHx8fTCYTUVFR0ohBaWlpqwWFgiCg1Wrx8fEhKSkJHx8fwsLCaGxspFevXsTExNDY2MigQYMYOnQoP/74o3RvVzkfcugKbs8RsGFhYUyaNImffvpJsos7cOCANGIbFBREQEAA/fr1Iz4+noKCAsrKytDpdPj7+0ujsyLLli2jb9++hISEoNVqCQsLIygoCB8fH7777jvWr1/Pnj17qK6u5j//+Q/r1q3jzTffpLGxkYKCAj777DO+++47qqqq2Lp1K6tWreK9995j27Zt0vM2btxIQ0ODVyi6cqVcfKcBAQHExMRI9amgoIDa2lrGjh2L2WymsbGR4cOHM2rUKOLj4zEYDGzcuJGkpCTi4uIIDg4mLy8Pl8uFXq9n4sSJ1NbWMnfuXGbMmCEptY2NjeTk5ODj40NcXBxms5lvvvmGHTt2sGnTJrZs2UJLSwslJSUEBAQwatQovv/++x7TAOXn55OTkwPAhg0bcLvdJCYmdnvdaQtvTJPKxYm3lDVxUCI/P5+MjAwEQWDDhg3YbDZSU1OVwVUuMOdNyQXo378/ERERHDlyhLq6Onx9fQkJCZEaPaPRyIcffsiTTz7J/PnzpROg5A2l2HgKgkBzczOlpaXccccd9OrVi++++w6AY8eOScqK2+1m06ZNbNu2ja1bt5KYmNhqKjw1NRW9Xo/b7ebvf/87//d//4fD4WDt2rXceOON0n57onKt1+vRaDSsWbOGZcuWnWFPGBgYiNFoJD8/nzvvvPOMaf/bbruN1NRUrrrqKr788kupYT5fiongGfUKCQnhD3/4A/Pnz6e5uZkjR45w7bXXSvaIZrOZpUuX8sknn3D11VczYcIEZVTo9Xo2bdrEsmXL+Prrr3E4HNK7cTgc/Pvf/2b58uV89tlnyls7TXfbCMmfHxUVxfjx41m8eDF2u51Tp04xaNAgHA4HWq2Wqqoq3n77bTZu3Mitt97K0KFDpTiU73PhwoVER0dLx+2KOBwOduzYQUJCAs899xx2u52ff/6ZuLg4mpqamDt3Lk6nE6PRSElJCVu2bOHYsWPk5eURFxfHzp07KSwsZMKECRw7doy6urpW8Xc3Yr1B1giJ/0NCQjhw4ABz5swhOzub2NhYADIzM7nuuutITEyksrKSoKAgAKKjo6mrq2tVFw8cOEBSUhKnT5+WnhkXF0dSUhLz5s1j6dKlOJ1OMjIyCAgI4MUXX2TdunWsW7eO6OhofH19AaipqekxWzQdO3aMNWvWsGvXLhobG0lNTZXKnLLcdTfelp6ehiq/zuNtsiotLWXt2rXs3r2boqIiwsPD8fPzUwbrVrxNZheC86phuN1upk+fTkNDA6+++iqxsbH07t1bUiRbWlq44447KCoqko4nFXtFGo2G5uZmHnjgAZ566in27dtHY2MjO3fuJCQkRNo4G89xp3LltK6ujtzcXASPXaSomMp7foIgMHz4cIKDg/npp59obm6WRp0aGhp44oknePbZZzl48CBarZbf/e53xMXFsXXrVrZu3cof//hH3n//fSorKwHYvXs3M2bMIDw8nBdeeIGHHnqIb7/9Fp1Ox1NPPcVLL73E+vXrJTMLMZ/nEnnnQKfTMWTIEGw2G2lpaVgsFskMA8DPz4/LL7+clpYWyX45IyODF154gUcffZTq6moARowYwdSpU5k+fbpkH+12u9Hr9dxyyy2kpaVxySWXtEpDT0KuiPn6+nL//fezaNEisrOzSU1NlWxsnU4noaGhjB49GofDQX19fYcfsPLy8lYblIsrpXU6HSkpKRQXF1NbW4vBYCAkJIQRI0YwaNAgDhw4gMlkQqPRUFJSIo3URkZGMmzYMPDYPoaHh3Py5EmvnrZWlu8ZM2bwyiuvEBgYSEpKCqmpqbS0tFBTU8MVV1yBj48PvXv3lmZosrOzpYMZWlpaeOutt/jzn//MjTfeiNVqJS0tDTz1//bbb+fll18mOjoak8lE7969CQ8PJzw8nKCgIPz9/amurpa+BQMHDpQUXm9nwoQJWK1WnnzySaKiokhJSVEGUVFR6WbGjBlDUFAQ//M//4OPjw+XX365MohKN3BelVybzcbYsWMxGAyUlJRIU7fiaKLL5SI4OJg33niDt956q5WNoduzsObll1/mqaeeYsCAATQ2NpKSksLIkSO55pprMBgM7N+/n2nTptHQ0MCJEyfAM7JmtVqZOnUqbrebI0eO4HQ6EQSB/fv3Y7fbEQQBg8HAAw88wLPPPsstt9yC0+nEarUSGBjIU089Je1Ta7PZ8Pf3Z8yYMURFRXH55Zfzr3/9i9tvv53w8HCWLFlCnz598Pf3p7KykocffpgXX3yRKVOmsHTpUvz8/JgyZQp33nknp06daiWjc41cftHR0UyfPp358+dz++23SyYLAE6nk+joaO69914yMjLYunUrAwcO5JFHHuHZZ58lLCyMlpYWAgMDCQsLw9/fv1UHBCAlJYXHHnuMv/71r63S0BW6e/WpIDOFERdDjR07lgULFjBp0qQzVuKPGjWKCRMmsGfPHmkK2WaznbF1kljW8YxUikp0RUUFWVlZ9O3bF0EQsNvtUriwsDA0Gg1btmxBp9MRERGBzWbD7TGb0el0CJ7RO4vFQp8+fTAajVLauhN5Z0HEbrfT0NAgbV3j7+9PVVUVkZGRzJw5E19fX9544w3Wrl3LokWL+PHHH7nhhhs4fPiw1PENCgpC8JjPPPDAA/Tp04eQkBCmTZvGsGHDpOcFBQVRUlKCIAj8/ve/Z/z48Wg0Gk6cOEF8fDxhYWGMGzdOmpW55ppr2lwk6o0EBQVx880388ILLzBu3Dilt8pFRE8bJOhOvElWbs9M8vXXX8+///1vr1VwvUlmF4pftLtCZzh06BCLFy8mLCyMlJQUJkyYgMFg4PvvvycvLw/Bs0q8pKSEqVOn0rdvX/7zn/9QUFBAVlaWpNAmJCRgNBqpqKjg1VdfJTExkQEDBlBVVcXatWupqqpi9uzZ9OnTh2+//Zb169dTUlLCxIkTGTZsGBMmTCAtLY2vv/6a06dP069fP2pra/npp59oaGhgxowZxMXFMXDgQN5//31qamoYPny49NzS0lLmz5/Pjz/+yIgRIxg/fjxGoxF/f3/8/Pyk6fqffvqJ5cuXM2PGDOLj4/H398fHx4fc3FyOHDnC8uXLsVgs/OEPfyAgIEBSrpSjXXJ+ye4KTqeTvXv3smnTJkwmE5MnTyYiIoLIyEj+85//4PYsJFu7di0ul4sZM2bgdrv54YcfSExMlHaWOH36ND/88AP5+flcdtllrFu3jtzcXLRaLceOHaOgoABfX1+uvvpqqqurWbt2LYmJiYSFhZ01X3JWrlzZ7bsrOBwOdu/ezbp160hOTmbGjBmEhIQgCAJr1qzBbDZTU1NDRkYGGo2Ga6+9lrq6OtauXUtxcTGHDx/GaDQyaNAgSelsaGggLi6OmJgYnn/+eSwWC/feey/+/v58/PHHBAQE0NDQwIgRI9iyZQs5OTlUVFTwt7/9jaKiInbs2IHb7aa8vJympiYsFguFhYUcOnSIUaNGcfLkSdxuNyNHjuxwRPlCIN9dQVTC8ZRFl8tFYmIisbGx1NXVUV9fz6BBg+jduzdVVVU4nU7CwsIIDAxk7Nix9O/fH71eT1lZGXfddReBgYFSfOKiPbdnJkFcmOpyuSgpKcHpdDJt2jSCgoKIiIiQFN+RI0eSkpLCmDFjqK2txe12M2HCBAICAlrlw5t2V1ASGhpKUlKSJANvpLm5mZUrV6q7K/xCbDabtPOHurvC2XE4HF6xu4K8PgYEBJCcnExgYOAZft2NuCD3t7a7QpdOPIuJiaG0tFTpfAZuj82m3W5Hp9O1slkU98TU6XQ4HA4Ez4iqy+WipaVFMllwu90YDAZplMvlcmGxWKQRLZfLhc1mQ6PRYDAYcLvdtLS04HK5pDhFe0hxpE2r1aLVahEEQVq1bTAYcDgc6HQ66X4fHx+psXY6ndJz9Hq9dL9IS0tLK1tVPz+/VvkV4xSfL19Mdzb+/ve/k5KSwkMPPaT06hC73Y7dbkev16PT6aRRbKvViuAZFXM6nZLsRNmLMnN7puftdjtuzyiieC33F/PjcDhwOBzS++pM3kRmz57N888/L9m3dgcuz76jLS0t0jsWy5H47sWyIMpMlIdGo8HlcqHVaiX7bTwN/pdffsltt92GwWAAkKbHzWazVDZLS0t59913eeONN7Barfj4+Eh1R3xPKEbojUYjX3zxBRMmTCAhIaFLnYrzwYkTJ5g/fz4LFy6U0iJ+VkQ5inJye0Y8xDCimxhGlLPbY9qBJ88d5U+MB5C+F8iUbK1WK70XUZ7yOiry5JNPcv3113PFFVe0cvcmziaL7qSiooJbb71VMiNT6RoNDQ28/vrrjBgxglmzZim9VRQ0NzdLpl/ehPjt87Z6umDBAmpra3nhhReUXhc158VcQfAsEjEajZKiJSqYvr6+GI1GDAYDRqMRPz8/SUEwmUz4+vri5+eH0WhsNT2r1WoxmUzo9Xrp2mg04uvri0ajQavV4ufnh8lkku4V8fHxwWg0SgqyGFa812AwoNFopLSJjaLg2f7JZDLh5+cnpUeOmA+TyYS/v/8ZSp7BYMDX11fKW1uN67lGLnsxD6L8RDnIZafT6VrJTLxHfA9ajzJrMpnw8fE5Iz+iDNqST09ALgNRURVlJspJKTNRxmKZ8fHxkRQpPKOOV199NVarVSoDYlkW5ajT6cjPz6ehoYGDBw9KYcS4xWeKzxGflZeXJ+0u4C1Kj/LDLq+3olzEeioPo9VqJVmL7qKbyNnyJ8ajVezVrFV0PEQ3ZR2V0567t+Dt6RPLgYrKbxXx26fiHZwXJVfOuXzZgmyESEXF24mLiyMiIgJNOyfzaDQaJk6cyAcffCAtKmsLuQLp9mwfFRoaKnWY2or7QiPWc29Iyy/F7cUnyvUUzuX3XkWlI9Sy1nV+i9+3867knmvUgn1xcTG/T41nz2VBtlhPjph3MVx7yEcGxLjEeEW37kT+/O5Oy69BLlOVrqPK7tch1nNVjp1HlVXn+a2WrS7b5Kanp0t2dme7VRTo2cKptEYQBAICAnjkkUfo27cvDz/88AXdKqoz7/Zc4O/vz2233cZjjz3G0KFDW225dTFyoeR6ocnKymLhwoW8++670k4KPQ1BEHjhhRe46qqruOyyy5TeKu0gePbl1mg0VFRU8Kc//Ynvv/9e2sVFpXMInhNB33vvPYYMGcKNN954xs4uKv8/brcbs9nMuHHjOHHihFreOkDwDIwsXLgQq9XKSy+9pAxyUdMlJTcsLIy77rqr00quyi/HYDCwefNmgoODGT58+EX5wdPpdKxfv55Ro0YRGRkpLR5S6VnU1tZy9OhRJk+eLC3s6mkIgsCuXbtISkrq1p0+ejJms5kNGzZw880399hy0F0InsXQBw4cIDIykr59+6rfww4Q5bV06VLuvfdetbydBUEQOHLkCJMmTWLOnDlK74uaLim50dHR/Pzzz2rlO4+4PQuJAgICePrpp0lMTORPf/oTFotFGbTHIubRZDJx77338pe//EU6WUyl53Hq1Ck++ugj5s6d2yM7Y2J5/L//+z8mT57M2LFj1Q58F3G73VRVVfHII4+watUqaWRNnM1TaR+xrJnNZhYuXMigQYO45pprpF17VBmeicvlwmq1MmXKFGnve5W2cXt2qlm0aBGCIKgjuR3R2S3EVM4Nv3QLsZ7ErbfeynPPPdetW4ip/DqysrKYN28eCxcuVHr1KJ588klmzpzptRu5ezvinuVbtmxReql0gsbGRubOncvw4cO56aablN4qCsxmMykpKRQVFSm9VNrg3Xffpaqqii4cjXBR0P5ql1+BXG/ugg59Bu42Vju3da10E93PhhimrbDtxUs74btKZ+LoKA2dpavvoqMwHfl1ha6mqTvoTLqUYcT3Jbor/UXac++IzsbdHYh73dJOupTvW56PjlCGU+a/rTjacpNzNn9vnaU6W7q9AXk5UOk6XakbKu1/A7obb02XaGb6W+O8KLlms5ni4mIaGxtbCdVut1NRUUFZWRklJSUUFRVRVVUlNSxOp5Pi4mLpXhF55Xd7DiKQFyRBEKirq+PQoUOcPn2apqamVjY62dnZHD16FKvVisVioaioiIaGBiluPAWgrKzsjJFqp9NJYWEh+fn5Ujj5fRaLhfT0dJqamiR30a+yspLS0lIKCwtxuVwUFRVRXl5ORUVFpwqb8AtXQzqdTgoKCqiqqmp1v8vlora2lpKSEsrLyyksLKSkpASr1QqyPIn/xfckniaFZ8Py4uJiCgsLqa6uluLuSqWWp6kr950P3J6DBGprayktLW31/lwuF/X19RQXF1NaWkpRUVGrsikIAjU1NRQVFVFRUdFqysztmWasqqrCZrNRWlpKcXEx9fX1kv8vQSzr4rPk6e1OOiqngiDQ1NTE6dOnqayslA5iqa+vJycnR6o7+fn5pKen09LSIslPPNBBjAfPASuCZ01ASUkJGzduJCMjAzz18cCBA/z4449SXa6rq6O4uJi8vLwzynpPpKqqqtX3xpvwtvT0NFT59WzE9ycIArW1ta30GG/gt1i+zqmSKwrQ7Xbz7bff8uGHH7baFeC7775j0aJFFBYWsmnTJlatWkV2djZLliyhtLQUl8vFrl27+PTTTzGbzbKY/x+CIJCXl8fSpUulBk8QBHJycti5cyfZ2dmcOHGCbdu2UV5ejsViYePGjRw8eJBTp06xdetWsrKy2LdvH3PmzJGUZYDc3FzmzJlDbW2tFK8gCFRWVrJlyxaWLFnCwYMHpW2GBI/h+969e1mxYgULFiw4Q6lsbGzkxRdfpLCwELfbTU5ODv/85z8lmZzrAicqAy6Xi6ysLJ5//nlqamok/9zcXF5//XUOHjzIsWPHWLFiBRkZGaxfv559+/a1qqB4lPTXXnuN7OxsqRdoNpv55ptvWLduHTk5OXzxxRdn5LsrdLR11oVAVBJra2uZN28ehw8flt5vbW0tn3zyCVu2bCEvL4+vvvqKtLQ0du7cyZYtW7DZbFitVj744AN27NgBHtmJCtqBAwcoLy/H5XKxdetWVq5cidlsluLvCvJ7zGYzBw8epKmpqcvxnG/aSk9TUxP79u3j+PHj2Gw2qZz+8MMPfPjhh9TU1PDzzz+Tnp5Obm4uaWlpkjLqcDjYuHGj9Hvz5s2SvafD4aC4uJjNmzfz8ccfU1ZWRkVFBbt372bZsmV8+eWX2O12tm/fTmZmJps3b+b48ePS83sScrkePHiQwsLCM9y9AW9Lj8rFizeWNXmaDh06xKlTp1r5q1x4zrmG4Xa78ff3x9/fn48//pht27aBp2H+7rvvOHToEAkJCdhsNqqrq0lJSWHp0qWsXbsWgKCgIHJycoiKigJZoREEAYvFwoYNG/jmm2+kUeL8/HxWrVoFHvvOK664gqCgIAICAliyZAk7duxgypQpzJw5E7fbTXNzM2FhYfz444/8/PPPCIKAw+Hgxx9/5IcffmDgwIGtRpadTifjxo3DaDTy3//+15PL/0dZWRl2u51Zs2axdevWVgXa5XKRnJzMihUrGDNmDFqtlksuuYRVq1aRlJR0XhpaUVZ6vZ5Bgwaxbt06Fi9eDJ7Rr507d7Jt2zYCAgIwmUzU19eTkpLCoUOH+Pzzz6mtrUXwKGlut5vBgweza9cuEhIS0Ov14Fl8WFlZKR2puHTpUkkJ+SWcDzl0BVF57NWrFzU1NbzyyiuSX3Z2NitXrkSn0xEXF0d+fj7BwcE4nU4+/fRTjh8/TmxsLDk5OdLJZm7PsbUnT57k6NGjJCUl4efnh9vtpqysjJiYGBoaGti3bx8tLS04nU7q6uqora3lxIkT4JnxyMrKIjc3Fzyj501NTeTm5lJTU0NsbCyHDh1qtZ1fdyPv4CrZu3cva9asISYmhtjYWPz8/Dh9+jQnT57EYrHg6+vL/PnziY6OZubMmbz55ptSZ1On01FXV8eGDRvYvHkzlZWVGI1GSc5DhgzhoYceIjk5mcbGRoKCgrjrrrv4/e9/T3l5OVu2bCE9PZ3w8HBCQ0NJS0uTynlPwC07shggPT0dm81GWFiY5O9NeFt6VC5evK2s2e12aZappKSE5uZmAgIClMFULjDnVMkVFQaAwYMHk5iYyKFDhwA4cOAAoaGhJCQk4HK5MBgMtLS0cPjwYeLj44mKikKj0eDj40NQUJA0GibGi2erIpvNxpQpU/jiiy8A+PHHHyksLGTq1KkAlJeXYzabqaur44MPPuDKK68kPDwcgKuvvpoBAwbg4+PDP//5T15++WUEz7RpbW0tcXFxIBtd1Gq1xMTE4HA4cDgcDB48GDkBAQGMHz+eYcOGSYownvSKcQQGBvL999/z3XffsXHjRgIDA+E8jWDKG26TycT06dPZsWMHZrOZyspKcnNzmTx5MoIgSEcZ5+TkoNfr6d27t3Qsqvw9xsTEtDou1e1Zqdnc3Mzhw4dJSEj4VVsunQ85dBXBc4zxjBkzqKmpITMzE4vFQmZmJgMGDJDyr9PpKCgooKKigqSkJOkDFhwcjJ+fH8g+vG+++SajR4+W3MWjfa1WK4sWLaKhoYF58+ZRWFjIu+++y65du1i5ciW7d++moKCAffv2ceDAAXbt2sXq1atZt24dmzdvZt26dVgsFkaMGMHevXtbmYx0J8q6KlJXV8fOnTvR6XQUFRWxevVqCgsLqaysZMiQIfTu3RuNRkNNTY00Qpueni6ZY2g0GmbPns3KlStZt24dt99+uzSbotPp0Ov1ZGZmcvr0aSIiIggJCSEkJARBELj00kulDkRAQAAhISGUlJS0OUvkrQiCwJ49e/jhhx9wu92kpaXh7+9PZGRkq2+kt+Bt6elpqPLrPN4mq+PHj7NhwwYA0tLSAEhKSlKE6l68TWYXgvOmYbhcLq666irMZjOrV69Gr9cTHh6OVquVRiZ0Oh0ffPABCQkJTJ8+Ha1WK40iulwuNm/ezOrVqzlx4gR2u5309HQaGxspLi6WRg+rqqpobm7Gx8dHul69ejVZWVln2EgChISEADB+/HisVit79+5l//79XHnllVL4n3/+mRUrVkjmCQ6Hg6qqKioqKqiuruaHH35g3bp1OBwO/Pz8OHXqFIMHDyY+Pp6MjAy++eYbdu/eLeVTq9Wi1WpbKXTnu4ESBIHExETGjh3L+++/T319PX369JFkjGyf2oqKCm644QaCg4PZvXs3S5cuZf/+/SCbzpfHi2dkfsmSJfTp04crr7zyF+9T6C0juW63G4PBwOOPP85LL71ES0sL1dXV9OvXT9raTKvVkpmZyc8//8yYMWPo06cPtLPgZvv27fj4+EjyEv01Gg2BgYEYDAY+/fRTXC4XR48eJTU1leDgYBYsWEBgYCARERHk5ORw4MABTp8+TUlJCampqWRlZVFYWMill17K/v37qaura/Xc7kLMn1IO5eXllJeXM2nSJAIDA9m9ezdz585l1apV7Nixg40bN0r1W0Sv17eKZ+XKlcyaNYuZM2eycuVKSd7idyIiIgK9Xs9PP/0EQE1NDU6nkzFjxhARESHFI5Y1ZRq9HZfLRVpaGv/4xz/Q6XRSZ/t8fj9+KT1Ntt6GKr/O4y2yEtNhNBrZv38/jz32GLW1tQwaNEgZtNvxFpldSM6bkut0OhkxYgSRkZF8+eWXmEwmkpOTEQRBUvgCAgK46667yMrKkuxU9Xo9Wq0WwWNGIC5CaW5upqioiGuuuYahQ4cSERHBgQMHuOSSS7Db7Zw8eRKA+Ph4AgMDiYmJITExURrpEhuE8vJy6fn//Oc/ef755zl58iSpqalSGLvdjsPhkBS3wYMHM378eJqbmyUTBofDgeBZBFRUVMS0adMICAigpaVFul9UamfMmMGMGTOYOnWqpDCd7wbK5XIRHBzMtddey4oVK8jOzmb8+PFSugVBwGg0MnXqVHx8fCRTC4fDgc1ma6W0ytNaVlaGVqslOjqaW265hePHj2O1WluN9naF8y2HruDn58dll11GYWEhn376KVOmTKGlpQWdTofgGTkcPXo0qamp5OXltamgi+/cbre3+qBotVrsdjtWqxUfHx9MJhOBgYGEhISQmJhI3759SUpKkhax+fj44Ofnh5+fH5GRkcTGxpKamkpISIgUr91ubzMN3YH4HpXvMzw8nNTUVMxmMyEhIURHRzN69GjGjRtHcHAwvr6+GAwGkpOTpZHusWPH4uvrCx4zm8DAQK6++momTZpESEhIq4V/Op2OkSNHctNNN2GxWLDb7eTl5dGnTx8CAwMlc5Ha2lrKy8vp27cvQUFBrdLo7Vx++eUMGTKEkpISRowYIc1MeSPK96/SNVT5dR5vkpXb7aZv375cdtll1NTU0K9fP5KSkrxOqfQmmV0ozqmSK75Q0Qzh1KlTXHbZZQwePBi9Xk9JSQmZmZlUVFSQmZnJoUOHuOKKK7j00kt55pln2Lt3LwcPHuTw4cM0NTVx5ZVXcuONNxIfH89PP/1EeXk5o0aN4rrrriMiIoI5c+YwYsQIJk2axCeffMK+ffvYvn07LS0t+Pr68vTTT7N161bef/99vvvuO3744QcEQeDQoUPs3r2b8ePHo9FouOaaaygoKOD06dPk5uZy2WWXMXv2bFJTU9m2bRuLFi2ivr6ekSNHEhkZyVVXXcUNN9yAzWbj3//+NytWrODNN99kw4YNpKSkMGvWLMaNG0dZWRmVlZXs27cPp9PJsWPHaGxspKKiopW8zhVifE6nk4yMDHJycoiJiWHq1KkEBQXR1NTEoUOHKCgoID8/n7S0NGJiYpg5cyZff/0133zzDUOHDuWOO+5g9OjRnDx5kszMTFatWsWyZct4+umnaW5uJjMzk5ycHKZNm0ZycjJ/+ctfOH78uJSGc52v843L5aKqqop169ah0Wh49NFHKSgoICEhgfT0dE6cOEFFRYVkD3nDDTdw7Ngx3njjDbKzszl58iQFBQWt4hw1apRkvvLwww9z5MgRxowZg9ls5u2335Z2acjLy6OpqYk9e/bQ3NzMbbfdRlpaGmvWrJHK46lTpyQbVrFTkZubS3JyMv7+/q2e290o331YWBiTJk3CaDTS2NjI6NGjueOOO7jxxhu55ZZb+N3vfkdSUhJPPPEEdXV1bN26lSeeeEKyOdXpdFx99dXg6UBMmTJFGiGvq6tjxYoVbN68GYfDwQ033MDRo0fZtGkTmzZtYsOGDRiNRiZOnEhLSwtGo5HJkyf3OCUXYMqUKfzzn/9kyJAhSi+vQvn+VbqGKr/O4y2ykiuO48eP55VXXmHs2LFn+HkD3iKzC8k5PQzC7ZmCb2lpIS8vD71eT69evaivr8dkMklbhg0YMICCggKsViuDBw9Gq9Wya9cu+vXrR2NjI1VVVa3sGR0OB7m5uTidTmlhWFZWFsXFxYwbN47m5mZOnTpFcHAwdrsdQRBISEjAZDJx8OBBzGYzQUFB+Pr6kpSURG5uLlqtluTkZLKysujfvz8VFRUcPHiQUaNGSSMlDoeD/Px8KioqiIyMJCYmRlJc8CwIOnbsGG7Ptmbx8fEkJCRIo5qNjY3s2LGDQYMGERMTQ0lJCenp6YwfP/4Mu+O26OphEOKrdLvdlJaWUlFRwaBBg6itrcVoNGKxWDh+/Djx8fHodDry8/NJSUkhLCyMw4cP4+PjQ0pKCgaDATyj3ocPHyY8PBy9Xk9FRQXjx4/n6NGj6PV6hg4dKilow4cPl+wE6ULlvuWWW/jHP/7RbYdBuD1T3haLhaNHjzJq1ChcLhelpaVERkZy9OhRAgICiI6O5sSJE0RFRdGvXz9p27jExEROnDhBTEwM/fr1k0Zy9+zZQ25uLrNnz+b777+nV69ekn1vWloaCQkJlJWVER4ezkcffcRTTz2FxWIhPDycqqoqKisrEQQBX19f3B5TiuDgYIqLixk0aBDffvstsbGxjB07Vnpf3cWJEyd48803+fDDD9ss0y0tLTQ3N+NyufD19cVkMoHH5MVisRAYGIher6e8vBybzUZsbKw0m9MRVquVvLw8jEYjAQEBhIWFUVVVRUlJCW7PAti4uDgEz64gLpdLelZbPPnkk1x//fVcccUVSi+VTlBRUcHs2bOlxcYqXaOhoYHXX3+dESNGMGvWLKW3igJx8XNxcbHSS6UNFixYQE1NzW/uMIhzruSKnK2BOhtuz4igGI/4v61GVHRzeVaaC7JtnJS05a506ygfop94j9JfRBmnEjGejsL8UiWXs8hLjjIdbcXRWX7JvbNnz+b555/vNiUXz0iuqJzK5XU22SlR5n/Dhg3Ex8eTmpoqxS9/Fp7toJ577jm++OILafTybBQWFpKZmcmll15KcHBwl9N5rjmbkqt0U1635aa87gzKsiy6dTYeVcn9dVRUVHDrrbeydetWpZdKJ2hoaJBOPFOV3LOjKrldY8GCBdTW1vLCCy8ovS5qzqm5ghy34gAH8U/0k4dp6x5kjZUg29ZKroDI3eR+bdHe/Up/0U0er/IPme1le3G0da+cjtL6a1A28PLfbf21J4+O7mnvT/6+egpuz1ZU4mIm8b2hKHeim/hf/C3+ibax8rxPmDCB3r17twqv0Wik8G63m5SUFObNmyfNECjjlD9X/B0aGsrll19OQEBAq/R0J51592Ie5DJWuonu8jAd0VYYeTxyN5XzjypnlQtFR98aFRWRX6TktvchEzwjmx39ieHk4Tu6X+nX1rXYSLb1DHl4EXl4uZ/cTVRi5fEKnq3BBJlS3dFzlPcq5aa8V0lbjXVHyPMh/lf+Vv7JlYr2/jryb+s5nUlzZ8JcCMT0iu9VdJP7K/Mn9xNRlgs8C9lMJlOrsiT+F8P7+/szcOBAyTRH/jxlmsTfJpMJk8kkTenL09EdiPluj7by0J6bPC+dyZcyvPxP7t+ZuFR+HfKy31F5UGmfrn7zVVRUOuYXKbkXssE427OUDWNHdNTgKRvLs9FWmI7ipwP39tBoNK2mts8HnZFfR/5t+bXlpuRssrqQ/Jo0KOX3a+Lqqeh0uvNeTi8EWq0WnU6ndFbpJHq93qvqdU9Do9Gg0+l+8U41KiodcTF8o38JXbLJDQ0N5emnn25zalbl3CCOhvj6+rJixQoiIiKk1eEXE263Gz8/PxYtWsTkyZOJj4//xXvtqnQvlZWVbN++nVtvvbXHvkNBEFi/fj0DBgwgKSlJ/bZ1EvnobWNjI19++SUPP/ywtFWhSuex2Wxs3bqV2NhYhg0bpsrwLLS0tPD666/z4osvSltzqrSNIAhs376d4cOH869//UvpfVHTJSV3zpw50spktfKdXwRBwGq1InhOJ7tYsVgs+Pj4/GZ7mRcDLpdL2rZPrvT0NGw2G1rPwS09NQ8XGvn7FsuB/BAUlc7jcrlwOBxSGezJdelCYTabW+14pNI+drudsWPHMm3aNKXXRU2XlFyn06naC6moqKioqKio9DAEz2FcvyW6pOSqqKioqKioqKio9ATUOWIVFRUVFRUVFZWLDlXJVVFRUVFRUVFRuehQlVwVFRUVFRUVFZWLDlXJVVFRUVFRUVFRuehQlVwVFRUVFRUVFZWL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more about [Climatic Change](https://www.springer.com/journal/10584)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/clim/default.aspx","title":"Climatic Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8078435/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8078435/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eUsing the Maximum Potential Storm Surge (MPS) model, a climatological approach with low modeling cost based on the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) theory of typhoons, we conducted a long-term evaluation of the maximum potential storm surge for a total of 49 bays in East Asia using the HighResMIP experiment, a set of high-resolution global climate models that includes ocean coupling as a data set. The algorithm in this framework was developed to correct theoretical north-south differences in typhoon intensity by up to 80% by introducing a decay process of intensity associated with typhoon movement into the existing storm surge model. The maximum potential storm surge in Osaka Bay is expected to rise by up to 1.5 m by 2050, and a significant future change trend is 0.7 m per decade in Shanghai. The results suggest the importance of considering future changes in storm surge anomaly in adaptation measures in major bays in East Asia, where rising storm surge trends are evident.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Future Projection of Maximum Potential Storm Surge along East Asia based on CMIP6 HighResMIP","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-03 10:29:27","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8078435/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revise","date":"2026-03-13T15:59:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-12-01T14:19:15+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-12-01T14:16:10+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-11-12T09:58:14+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Climatic Change","date":"2025-11-11T09:30:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climatic-change","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"clim","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climatic Change](https://www.springer.com/journal/10584)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/clim/default.aspx","title":"Climatic Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"077203dd-8c39-4d96-94b3-e84de023fe61","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 3rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"in-revision","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-13T20:00:14+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-03 10:29:27","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8078435","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8078435","identity":"rs-8078435","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}