Urban Flooding Management Integrating Low Impact Development Under Climate Change Scenarios

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Abstract This study examines urban flooding in Pokhara, Nepal, using PCSWMM-based hydrological modeling, combined with Low Impact Development (LID) strategies and future climate change projections. Land Use Land Cover (LULC) analysis revealed rapid urbanization, with built-up areas increasing from 7.3% in 1990 to 62.1% in 2023. Climate projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicate a rise in extreme rainfall events, particularly under SSP5-8.5, suggesting a higher risk of urban flooding in the future. Analysis of precipitation data (1973–2023) identified the Log Pearson Type III distribution as the best fit, supporting the development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The study area was divided into 28 subcatchments and evaluated under two scenarios: LID-only and a combined approach with enhanced drainage and reduced LID. Results showed that LID interventions significantly reduced runoff. The findings highlight the importance of integrating both nature-based and structural solutions to improve urban flood resilience amid increasing climate extremes.
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Urban Flooding Management Integrating Low Impact Development Under Climate Change Scenarios | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Case Report Urban Flooding Management Integrating Low Impact Development Under Climate Change Scenarios Kaphle Biswash, Kafle Aayush, Aryal Ayush, Ghimire Ankit, Karki Krish, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7019354/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 14 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines urban flooding in Pokhara, Nepal, using PCSWMM-based hydrological modeling, combined with Low Impact Development (LID) strategies and future climate change projections. Land Use Land Cover (LULC) analysis revealed rapid urbanization, with built-up areas increasing from 7.3% in 1990 to 62.1% in 2023. Climate projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicate a rise in extreme rainfall events, particularly under SSP5-8.5, suggesting a higher risk of urban flooding in the future. Analysis of precipitation data (1973–2023) identified the Log Pearson Type III distribution as the best fit, supporting the development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The study area was divided into 28 subcatchments and evaluated under two scenarios: LID-only and a combined approach with enhanced drainage and reduced LID. Results showed that LID interventions significantly reduced runoff. The findings highlight the importance of integrating both nature-based and structural solutions to improve urban flood resilience amid increasing climate extremes. Urban Flooding PCSWMM Low Impact Development Climate change SSPs Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 29 Aug, 2025 Reviews received at journal 16 Aug, 2025 Reviews received at journal 14 Aug, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Aug, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 01 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 21 Jul, 2025 Editor invited by journal 14 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 13 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 13 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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