Probabilistic functionalism as a limiting condition for robustness: quick adaptation to experienced cue predictivity in the attraction effect, default nudge and rule learning

Probabilistic functionalism as a limiting condition for robustness: quick adaptation to experienced cue predictivity in the attraction effect, default nudge and rule learning | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Probabilistic functionalism as a limiting condition for robustness: quick adaptation to experienced cue predictivity in the attraction effect, default nudge and rule learning Mattias Forsgren, Benjamin Mandl, Gustav Karreskog Rehbinder This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6630248/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 22 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract When should we expect behavioural phenomena to be robust? We argue that many phenomena of interest to behavioural scientists, by their very nature, involve manipulations of stimulus characteristics. If there exist contingencies between those stimulus characteristics and outcomes, the former will consequently constitute cues. People may then pick up on whether the cue is guiding them towards their goal or not and adapt their behaviour accordingly. On this view, the robustness of such phenomena is, at least partly, determined by the cue structure in each given setting. In an experiment, we demonstrate that the attraction effect and the default nudge obtain proportionally to how well the manipulated stimulus characteristics predict the superior option. A similar result is found under a more traditional rule learning manipulation. We suggest that the existence of cue-outcome relationships is an (underappreciated) limiting condition for the robustness of behavioural phenomena. Biological sciences/Psychology Biological sciences/Psychology/Human behaviour probabilistic functionalism robustness attraction effect default nudge Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files ForsgrenetalAppendix.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 22 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 06 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 02 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 19 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 25 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 21 Aug, 2025 Editor invited by journal 23 May, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 23 May, 2025 First submitted to journal 09 May, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6630248","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":506121071,"identity":"8b7d9b14-8c93-4e27-b62f-d6aca7360a79","order_by":0,"name":"Mattias Forsgren","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Uppsala University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mattias","middleName":"","lastName":"Forsgren","suffix":""},{"id":506121074,"identity":"2cb06e04-2a9d-413c-8af7-98051bdd4218","order_by":1,"name":"Benjamin Mandl","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Stockholm School of Economics","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Benjamin","middleName":"","lastName":"Mandl","suffix":""},{"id":506121075,"identity":"2167b427-fb1a-49df-9be6-bc6676f21e2d","order_by":2,"name":"Gustav Karreskog Rehbinder","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Uppsala University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gustav","middleName":"Karreskog","lastName":"Rehbinder","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-09 16:08:22","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6630248/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6630248/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-32580-z","type":"published","date":"2025-12-22T15:58:27+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":99172386,"identity":"88d69061-8474-4d19-8d4b-0efd8f8d4656","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-29 16:08:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":805886,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ForsgrenetalManuscripttexfiles.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6630248/v1_covered_0508558e-8e5d-4010-af62-83d398fafff8.pdf"},{"id":90372928,"identity":"c8d549f6-dc4a-4adf-ae46-0cc51d3653fe","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-02 05:12:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":923684,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ForsgrenetalAppendix.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6630248/v1/9de7baddd97d2a90d8513797.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Probabilistic functionalism as a limiting condition for robustness: quick adaptation to experienced cue predictivity in the attraction effect, default nudge and rule learning","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"probabilistic functionalism, robustness, attraction effect, default nudge","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6630248/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6630248/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"When should we expect behavioural phenomena to be robust? 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