Probabilistic seismic reliability assessment of telecommunication networks under mainshock–aftershock sequences: a Chilean case study

Probabilistic seismic reliability assessment of telecommunication networks under mainshock–aftershock sequences: a Chilean case study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Probabilistic seismic reliability assessment of telecommunication networks under mainshock–aftershock sequences: a Chilean case study Jiménez Dora, Francisco Plaza-Vega, Orietta Nicolis This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8981395/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Telecommunication networks are essential during emergencies, yet their seismic performance is often assessed under mainshock-only assumptions. This paper proposes a PSHA-based Monte Carlo framework to quantify the additional degradation induced by aftershocks on the connectivity of the Chilean National Research and Education Network (REUNA). Earthquake scenarios are generated from an empirical seismic catalog (Chile, 1940--2025, M ≥ 5.0) using parametric sampling for magnitude and depth and a cluster-informed spatial model that preserves the dominant north--center--south organization of seismicity. Ground motion is computed with a Chile-calibrated GMPE and translated into component damage via HAZUS fragility formulations for nodes and segment-level modeling for buried fiber links, including permanent ground deformation effects. Aftershock impact is incorporated through a scenario-based secondary event and a sequential damage update on surviving components, yielding a final post-sequence state. Reliability is evaluated through source--terminal (s--t) connectivity and summarized by cluster. Results show systematic damage accumulation and measurable reliability losses under mainshock--aftershock conditions, with region-dependent patterns and identifiable vulnerable nodes. Aftershocks Network Reliability Monte Carlo Simulation earthquake Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 18 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 03 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 27 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8981395","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":608305214,"identity":"a36f7a04-1766-45bb-9d20-e0ef2793dbc2","order_by":0,"name":"Jiménez Dora","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidad Adolfo Ibanez","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jiménez","middleName":"","lastName":"Dora","suffix":""},{"id":608305215,"identity":"6f728853-6b68-4aff-8381-c788db0174a2","order_by":1,"name":"Francisco Plaza-Vega","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYGxgNw3gcgZmMnoIUHqB6uhXEGSAszKVqYecAkIS0MvAcO/Phjx2BwvP3iZ5tf2+T5mBkYP3zMwaeFL+FgD08yg8GZM8XSuX23DduYGZglZ27DrcWegcfgAI8EM4PkjJwE6dye24xALWzMvHi08AC1HPxjUM8gOf9N8m/Lntv2RGk5zJNwmIFfgv2YNMOP24mEtTDzJRyWOXCch58nh82yt+F2chszYzNev/Cw9x58+OZPtRwb+/HHN378uW07v7354IePeLRA4wLoQKALGRjbQGzGBjzqoYohgP0BA8MfAopHwSgYBaNgRAIAQ+lLEqrLN04AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7577-2775","institution":"Universidad de Santiago de Chile","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Francisco","middleName":"","lastName":"Plaza-Vega","suffix":""},{"id":608305216,"identity":"7a926871-a7af-45d6-9fb3-6a163ff6f146","order_by":2,"name":"Orietta Nicolis","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidad Andres Bello","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Orietta","middleName":"","lastName":"Nicolis","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-26 20:48:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8981395/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8981395/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105563615,"identity":"bfbd6449-a8df-4844-9a4d-123588c90cb2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-27 12:47:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":13287618,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscriptBEE.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8981395/v1_covered_949b1427-9994-44cf-b893-0ec7777ddb89.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Probabilistic seismic reliability assessment of telecommunication networks under mainshock–aftershock sequences: a Chilean case study","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"bulletin-of-earthquake-engineering","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"beee","sideBox":"Learn more about [Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering](https://www.springer.com/journal/10518)","snPcode":"10518","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10518/3","title":"Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Aftershocks, Network Reliability, Monte Carlo Simulation, earthquake","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8981395/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8981395/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Telecommunication networks are essential during emergencies, yet their seismic performance is often assessed under mainshock-only assumptions. 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