An anatomy of labor market dynamics in the French Overseas Regions: A flow-based approach

An anatomy of labor market dynamics in the French Overseas Regions: A flow-based approach | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article An anatomy of labor market dynamics in the French Overseas Regions: A flow-based approach Idriss Fontaine This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6930581/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in The Annals of Regional Science → Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract I study the dynamics of worker flows and associated transition rates in the four historic French Overseas Regions and mainland France. Starting from the new version of the French Labour Force Surveys, I examine the size and the contributions of transition rates between employment, unemployment and non-participation to unemployment fluctuations for each of these territories. I then establish a number of key stylized facts. First, total quarterly gross flows are higher of an order of magnitude in the FOR than in mainland France. Transitions between unemployment and inactivity are the main cause of these differences. Second, people living in FOR are less likely to find a job when being non-employed and more likely to lose their jobs. Third, the origins of unemployment variations are multidimensional and not the same within FOR, the job finding rate having only a minor influence in explaining unemployment variance. Fourth, transitions implying jointly unemployment and non-participation explain more than 30% and until 54% of unemployment changes. Finally, it appears that women and young people are more likely to move from non-employment to employment and to withdraw from the labor force while high-skilled workers have more difficulties than in mainland France to find a job. Classification JEL: J60, J10, R23. Worker flows Job-finding rate Job-separation rate unemployment dynamics French Overseas regions Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in The Annals of Regional Science → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 03 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 01 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 05 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Jul, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Jul, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 02 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 02 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 19 Jun, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6930581","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":489039695,"identity":"ab6a5880-74ec-4233-bbe8-5e074a721cd1","order_by":0,"name":"Idriss Fontaine","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABI0lEQVRIie3PMUvEMBTA8VcKvaVe11dE7ytUCodDuc+SUEinTu5SKcTRVcEPkU0Fh5TATYJrRZEewrmeW4XCmWtdtK2zQ/5DSpr+yCuAyfQPc4CA1E+v3RGAQwAr687s3RKNEj/bfaFJ+IuwgXtIu3ZER7Ofx30ynaSrom4Avf2LYrO6jRLxnHO07iN6M7GXFZDX3mDue6D2OKB/rWykDywVLwVHWDN6lztJAOSkR5CB0sOfBmUMSLlKRUnzsJGKCuXO0arJEGkH08SuKd8mgSYByG1HgAwS6TotcfQtkmhyVoGU48Rdg/4XRP8ynh9THh9ddSQOhXIYkj6ZnTP7o24i9JC+PX3yxWxaJpUEuTgQj2qJmz75DkfewxgwmUwm0599AWCsbkCIsIKEAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Idriss","middleName":"","lastName":"Fontaine","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-19 11:08:31","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6930581/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6930581/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-026-01453-2","type":"published","date":"2026-02-04T15:59:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":102234261,"identity":"449e9142-845e-48ee-a58f-0a012a911e16","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-09 16:08:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":365431,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"FAnatomieMarchTravailDom.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6930581/v1_covered_0c268548-304b-4a16-a1b5-965aa5f456ae.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"An anatomy of labor market dynamics in the French Overseas Regions: A flow-based approach","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"the-annals-of-regional-science","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"arsc","sideBox":"Learn more about [The Annals of Regional Science](https://link.springer.com/journal/168)","snPcode":"168","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/168/3","title":"The Annals of Regional Science","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Worker flows, Job-finding rate, Job-separation rate, unemployment dynamics, French Overseas regions","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6930581/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6930581/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eI study the dynamics of worker flows and associated transition rates in the four historic French Overseas Regions and mainland France. 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