On predictability of slip, rupture geometry, and rupture speed of the Mw7.8 2025 Mandalay (Myanmar) Earthquake

On predictability of slip, rupture geometry, and rupture speed of the Mw7.8 2025 Mandalay (Myanmar) Earthquake | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article On predictability of slip, rupture geometry, and rupture speed of the M w 7.8 2025 Mandalay (Myanmar) Earthquake Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Thomas Ulrich, Xiaoyu Zou, Mathilde Marchandon, and 8 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7553399/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The 2025 M w 7.8 Mandalay earthquake ruptured ~480 km of the Sagaing fault, producing one of the longest strike-slip events ever documented and impacting a vulnerable region with limited instrumental coverage. We combine remote sensing observations and numerical modeling to demonstrate that key earthquake characteristics, such as subsurface fault geometry, slip distribution, and supershear rupture speed could be anticipated from observations made before the event. Along-strike variations in coseismic and interseismic deformation jointly reveal a helix-shaped geometry of the Sagaing fault. The average coseismic slip is equal to, or greater than the accumulated interseismic slip deficit, consistent with a loosely slip-predictable model. We use the best-fit static slip model to derive an ensemble of 3-D dynamic rupture simulations that can reproduce multi-scale space geodetic, seismic, and near-field video observations. The preferred rupture scenario begins with a bilateral phase that transitions rapidly to unilateral southward supershear propagation at depth, while shallow rupture remains subshear. These complex dynamics are shaped by localized stress heterogeneity and low fracture energy, characteristic of a structurally mature fault zone. We show that for mature strike-slip faults with well-constrained geometries and slip histories, physically consistent dynamic rupture models can be derived from static constraints, bridging the gap between interseismic monitoring and physics-based seismic hazard assessment. Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Seismology Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geophysics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files PreferreddynamicrupturemodelMyanmar.mp4 Animation S1 MyanmarNatureSIsubm.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7553399","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":512364514,"identity":"c21d6323-57d9-4682-bca5-aba5c31916f6","order_by":0,"name":"Alice-Agnes 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Earthquake","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature 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These complex dynamics are shaped by localized stress heterogeneity and low fracture energy, characteristic of a structurally mature fault zone. We show that for mature strike-slip faults with well-constrained geometries and slip histories, physically consistent dynamic rupture models can be derived from static constraints, bridging the gap between interseismic monitoring and physics-based seismic hazard assessment.","manuscriptTitle":"On predictability of slip, rupture geometry, and rupture speed of the Mw7.8 2025 Mandalay (Myanmar) Earthquake","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-29 04:59:16","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7553399/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"844c5a20-291d-4b51-b784-e71e065e054c","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 29th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":54418775,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Seismology"},{"id":54418776,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geophysics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-09T16:56:01+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-29 04:59:16","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7553399","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7553399","identity":"rs-7553399","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}