Can tiger return to a landscape? Assessing the potential for tiger recovery using long-term prey-base survey as an indicator.

Prey abundance is recognized as a key component for the recovery of the tiger ( Panthera tigris) population. Long-term monitoring is imperative for understanding the trends in prey populations and helps assess the management interventions. We provide data on the tiger prey populations that include chital ( Axis axis) , chousingha ( Tetracerus quadricornis) , nilgai ( Boselaphus tragocamelus), sambar ( Rusa unicolor), and wild pig ( Sus scrofa) from Kawal Tiger Reserve (KTR) for a period between 2010–2022. We conducted our study using 28 permanently marked transects in a systematic survey design with a random start. The trends in the principal tiger prey populations were also compared across the years. The chital population has shown a significant rise but sambar, nilgai, and chousingha populations were consistent with a slight increase. The wild pig population was typically showing extreme fluctuations. We used the prey-biomass and prey-abundance-based models to predict the ecological carrying capacity of tigers. Based on the prey availability at KTR, we predicted that the reserve could potentially support more than 30 tigers in its core area. However, in the past 10 years, tigers have failed to recolonize KTR despite the movement of 11 tigers from the source sites of which only 2 were females. Therefore, we suggest that establishing a breeding tiger population may need restocking, focusing on the females, and maintaining connectivity with the tiger landscapes in neighbouring Maharashtra State having Protected Areas with a healthy source population. After being declared a tiger reserve in 2012, the level of protection in KTR has increased but the anthropogenic stressors are yet to be fully dealt with. Our long-term monitoring study has systematically documented the trajectory of prey populations and we predicted a significant increase in the carrying capacity of tigers in the Core of KTR.