Scaling sustainable aviation fuel for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 – Pathways, requirements and challenges

Scaling sustainable aviation fuel for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 – Pathways, requirements and challenges | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Scaling sustainable aviation fuel for net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 – Pathways, requirements and challenges Nils Bullerdiek, Stefan Bube, Jelto Lange, Gunnar Quante, Steffen Voß, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6663702/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions in aviation by 2050 requires a significant scale-up of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF ) kerosene production. Despite recent progress, global SAF usage in commercial aviation remains minimal, making large-scale SAF adoption by 2050 an immense challenge. Therefore, four SAF deployment and scaling scenarios are systematically evaluated. The results show that achieving net-zero CO2 emissions demands timely and diversified deployment of both biomass- and Power-to-Liquid (PTL)-based SAF technologies – i.e., no single solution can meet the given demand while enabling CO2 reductions at the necessary scale. Sustainable biomass availa-bility emerges as the key factor for a cost-effective SAF deployment, while limited biomass in-creases reliance on costly direct-air-capture (DAC)-based PTL SAF, significantly raising transfor-mation costs. Proactive deployment of SAF technologies and infrastructure is crucial, as develop-ment requires lead time and needs gradual scaling. Efforts should begin immediately, as further delays in scaling SAF technologies risk jeopardizing the aviation sector’s ability to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy supply and demand SAF deployment SAF scaling SAF infrastructure Sustainable Aviation Fuels net-zero aviation targets SAF feedstocks linear optimization modeling aviation climate goals 2050 SAF produc-tion pathways biomass feedstock availability CO2 emissions offsetting renewable kerosene SAF production capacity Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files ScalingSAFfornetzeroby2050VersionNatureComm3SI.pdf Supplementary information: Scaling sustainable aviation fuel for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 – Pathways, requirements and challenges Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6663702","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":459870835,"identity":"265eba5e-303a-4a49-ac71-60435b2fffae","order_by":0,"name":"Nils Bullerdiek","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA80lEQVRIie3PMWvCQBTA8fcIXJajXd8g5isogrVY/CwXApcldpQMDgEhXdLv42YhEJcQV93i4tQh3Zxan7FDl0TdOtx/Oh73490BmEz/McuKACPoPPCZFKgugBQAoo1gTc7XajKQVwn8JQDKTa6RJxsXFS5TKez3/bYMtb+iaVbC7KWRPC8wJsyZyPVgpPJgmtCr34NCN5JeijFgzIS0IDcOmQRD4kkb4YediXNg8h368kJ+2khEly2CSRSoX/LR+jByc5//oq2RynQ/yT+HpAqvmWzStPpajruPdoa749xz7DfeUs0mjaRO3TAxmUwm0z2dALEqSnqjVLnlAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7905-7488","institution":"Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nils","middleName":"","lastName":"Bullerdiek","suffix":""},{"id":459870836,"identity":"4036f885-f676-44c9-a8b2-82ad01d1443c","order_by":1,"name":"Stefan Bube","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7623-3773","institution":"Hamburg University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stefan","middleName":"","lastName":"Bube","suffix":""},{"id":459870837,"identity":"b60f336b-0a6a-488e-bd20-2056e741a5f5","order_by":2,"name":"Jelto Lange","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jelto","middleName":"","lastName":"Lange","suffix":""},{"id":459870838,"identity":"ea90151b-a7e7-463c-ad4c-88a0c0a40332","order_by":3,"name":"Gunnar Quante","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gunnar","middleName":"","lastName":"Quante","suffix":""},{"id":459870839,"identity":"db2ae392-5166-4d2c-a292-401468d1ee72","order_by":4,"name":"Steffen Voß","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Steffen","middleName":"","lastName":"Voß","suffix":""},{"id":459870840,"identity":"06c785e1-8f80-41c7-b65c-46f3a1abed9c","order_by":5,"name":"Martin Junginger","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Utrecht University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Martin","middleName":"","lastName":"Junginger","suffix":""},{"id":459870841,"identity":"d0be10d2-a8ae-4b87-99d2-33d2d3704a05","order_by":6,"name":"Martin Kaltschmitt","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hamburg University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Martin","middleName":"","lastName":"Kaltschmitt","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-14 11:30:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6663702/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6663702/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":83317278,"identity":"3298e27b-feb2-4724-b372-188e2c28ef44","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-23 02:07:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":973620,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"ScalingSAFfornetzeroby2050VersionNatureComm2Main.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6663702/v1_covered_fe323e04-9f84-4bf5-8144-049c737ebe89.pdf"},{"id":83317203,"identity":"953a96b1-2e30-4f11-ac82-6cab114610e3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-23 01:59:42","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1372255,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary information: Scaling sustainable aviation fuel for net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 \u0026#x2013; 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