Numerical prediction of sporadic E layer occurrence using GAIA

Numerical prediction of sporadic E layer occurrence using GAIA | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Full paper Numerical prediction of sporadic E layer occurrence using GAIA Hiroyuki Shinagawa, Chihiro Tao, Hidekatsu Jin, Yasunobu Miyoshi, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-46157/v3 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Jan, 2021 Read the published version in Earth, Planets and Space → Version 3 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract A sporadic E layer has significant influence on radio communications and broadcasting, and predicting the occurrence of sporadic E layers is one of the most important issues in space weather forecast. While sporadic E layer occurrence and the magnitude of the critical sporadic E frequency ( foEs ) have clear seasonal variations, significant day-to-day variations as well as regional and temporal variations also occur. Because of the highly complex behavior of sporadic E layers, the prediction of sporadic E layer occurrence has been one of the most difficult issues in space weather forecast. To explore the possibility of numerically predicting sporadic E layer occurrence, we employed the whole atmosphere–ionosphere coupled model GAIA, examining parameters related to the formation of sporadic E layer such as vertical ions velocities and vertical ion convergences at different altitudes between 90 km and 150 km. By comparing those parameters in GAIA with observed foEs data obtained by ionosonde observations in Japan, we found that variations in the vertical ion convergence at 120 km altitude agree fairly well with variations in foEs . This result suggests that sporadic E layer occurrence can be numerically predicted using the parameters derived from GAIA. We have recently developed a real-time GAIA simulation system that can predict atmosphere–ionosphere conditions for a few days ahead. We present an experimental prediction scheme and a preliminary result for predicting sporadic E layer occurrence. Planetary Science sporadic E layer wind shear occurrence prediction GAIA model vertical ion convergence Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 Figure 12 Figure 13 Full Text Supplementary Files Table2.pdf Table1.pdf GraphicalAbstract.jpg Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Jan, 2021 Read the published version in Earth, Planets and Space → Version 3 posted Editor assigned by journal 01 Dec, 2020 Editorial decision: Accept 01 Dec, 2020 Submission checks completed at journal 01 Dec, 2020 Editor invited by journal 01 Dec, 2020 Review # 1 received at journal 30 Nov, 2020 Reviewer # 1 agreed at journal 29 Nov, 2020 Reviewers invited by journal 26 Nov, 2020 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-46157","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Full paper","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":5711369,"identity":"48c49f1c-ac5e-4a11-82fc-3aa7439648e5","order_by":0,"name":"Hiroyuki Shinagawa","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZijNz8DYAGUeIFKLZANQywGitMCAwQFiFcu38x78+KXmsLzx7ebGzx8YauUYGM/i12lwmC9ZWubYYcNtdw42SxxgOG7MwHAuAb8WZh4DaQm224zbbiS2AR12LLGB4YwBfoc18xj/lvh3237zDGK1MBzmMZP82HY7cYMEWEsNYS0GQC3WjH3/k2fcSGyWOGNwwJiNkF/k+88Y3/zxLc22f0b6ww8VFXVy/BIEQgwEmHmQLGVgkzhDUAcD4w8Euw6YdHoIaxkFo2AUjIIRBQD8e0vbD+jkAQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4974-0651","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hiroyuki","middleName":"","lastName":"Shinagawa","suffix":""},{"id":5711370,"identity":"59bff4d5-c7b5-4b44-b216-91f5cddef3eb","order_by":1,"name":"Chihiro Tao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute of Information and Communications Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chihiro","middleName":"","lastName":"Tao","suffix":""},{"id":5711371,"identity":"691838d8-c652-400f-b762-6be11b0f0312","order_by":2,"name":"Hidekatsu Jin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Institute of Information and Communications Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hidekatsu","middleName":"","lastName":"Jin","suffix":""},{"id":5711372,"identity":"f13d204f-ffa8-4cd4-851c-d538ba6f3fa1","order_by":3,"name":"Yasunobu Miyoshi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Kyushu University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yasunobu","middleName":"","lastName":"Miyoshi","suffix":""},{"id":5711373,"identity":"19c9d22e-3f43-4372-a5d8-469825cbe57d","order_by":4,"name":"Hitoshi Fujiwara","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Seikei University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hitoshi","middleName":"","lastName":"Fujiwara","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2020-07-20 12:01:13","currentVersionCode":3,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-46157/v3","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-46157/v3","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-020-01330-y","type":"published","date":"2021-01-27T15:02:25+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":4175899,"identity":"ea698c3c-069b-4528-ae8a-e437c745d488","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:19","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":123050,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Observed foEs data at Kokubunji in 2009. foEs data are obtained by the ionosonde observation at Kokubunji in 2009 for (a) the entire year and (b) the days from 160 to 190. The day of year is in Japan Standard Time (UT + 9 hours).","description":"","filename":"1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/c27600644ff01781b61b1efd.jpg"},{"id":4175901,"identity":"973cd71d-0a4e-4733-b3ab-235aec727fcf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:20","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":159199,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Daily average foEs and daily average vertical ion convergence. Daily average foEs (blue line) and daily average vertical ion convergence (VIC) (red line) at Kokubunji in 2009 are compared at four different altitudes: (a) 130 km, (b) 120 km, (c) 110 km, and (d) 100 km. The scales on the daily average VIC are adjusted so that the values are best fitted to the foEs values.","description":"","filename":"2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/65cdd3adeec4b8f8f5a6b06b.jpg"},{"id":4175903,"identity":"58ed8e14-ceed-477f-afc7-bcf1999a89e5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:20","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":103413,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Correlations of daily average foEs and VIC. Scatter plots and correlation coefficients of the daily average foEs and VIC are shown at four different altitudes at Kokubunji in 2009.","description":"","filename":"3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/146497e8cc84e8e72075ae73.jpg"},{"id":4175905,"identity":"09b68e3a-af84-4ad8-8446-6cff5924fafe","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:20","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":33454,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Histogram of the distribution of Es layer altitude for Kokubunji in 2009. The manually scaled one-hour data obtained by the NICT ionosonde were used. The plot indicates that Es layers appear most often in the 100–110 km altitude region.","description":"","filename":"4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/1a23fc14c63e1c66363db245.jpg"},{"id":4175906,"identity":"9e081698-bd55-4725-87d3-af2b57a949a6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:21","extension":"jpg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":66746,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Correlation coefficients of the daily average foEs and VIC120. Correlation coefficients of the daily average foEs and the vertical ion convergence at 120 km altitude are shown for the years of 2009–2014 at Kokubunji in 2009.","description":"","filename":"5.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/40874388704974adf69e3a88.jpg"},{"id":4175907,"identity":"1106dfe9-5e78-464f-a772-fa85e4477ef4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:21","extension":"jpg","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":158172,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Daily maximums of foEs and daily maximums of VIC. The daily maximums of foEs (blue line) and the daily maximums of the vertical ion convergence (VIC) are compared at four different altitudes (red line) in 2009 at Kokubunji.","description":"","filename":"6.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/c1cb67972db8f55dc332d001.jpg"},{"id":4175908,"identity":"147bd1bd-d9d6-487e-a5a3-53d842162c18","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:21","extension":"jpg","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":110219,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Correlation coefficients of the daily maximums of foEs and VIC. Scatter plots and correlation coefficients of the daily maximums of foEs and the daily maximums of the vertical ion convergence (VIC) are shown at four different altitudes at Kokubunji 2009.","description":"","filename":"73.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/cd00d9f0b4c949c7db7a9405.jpg"},{"id":4175909,"identity":"603ffec8-9f87-4c84-861e-bd05bbca9b1e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:21","extension":"jpg","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":100151,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"One-hour values of foEs and VIC120. One-hour values of foEs (blue line) and the vertical ion convergence at 120 km altitude (VIC120) (red line) are plotted for three different periods at Kokubunji in 2009. Figure 7a corresponds to the most active period, and Figures 7b and 7c are moderate and quiet periods, respectively.","description":"","filename":"8.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/3c40b016b9b6fca55b4bd669.jpg"},{"id":4175910,"identity":"1fa03af0-3a7e-4979-9257-2e1d826e740a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:21","extension":"jpg","order_by":9,"title":"Figure 9","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":80368,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Daily maximum foEs and daily average VIC120. (a) Daily maximum foEs (blue line) and the daily average vertical ion convergence at 120 km altitude (VIC120) (red line) at Kokubunji 2009. (b) Scatter plot and correlation coefficient of the data in Figure 8a.","description":"","filename":"9.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/dcf5396a8631c7aa046da600.jpg"},{"id":4175911,"identity":"0ab89d5c-2a0a-42ca-8355-84fe70808669","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:21","extension":"jpg","order_by":10,"title":"Figure 10","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":122483,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Comparisons of neutral wind velocities with and without JRA-55. The eastward neutral wind velocities at 120 km with and without JRA-55 for five different periods in Okinawa 2019 are compared, starting from the same initial values at 0 UT of the first day of the five months in 2019: (a) July, (b) August, (c) September, (d) October, and (e) November. The black line and the red line indicate neutral wind velocities with and without JRA-55, respectively.","description":"","filename":"10.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/115c3a1feeceeada2b42831c.jpg"},{"id":4175912,"identity":"7c7a0963-c3be-475c-a570-f9920fb566bf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:21","extension":"jpg","order_by":11,"title":"Figure 11","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":115206,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Comparisons of VIC120 with and without JRA-55. The vertical ion convergence values at 120 km (VIC120) with and without JRA-55 are compared for the same periods as Figure 9, starting from the same initial values. The black line and the red line indicate VIC with and without JRA-55, respectively. Numbers for each day are correlation coefficients of VIC120 with and without JRA-55.","description":"","filename":"11.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/ad7ae82cdba3fa259a0d02ad.jpg"},{"id":4175913,"identity":"c8ea12aa-640a-4dbb-bf86-805ee277785e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:21","extension":"jpg","order_by":12,"title":"Figure 12","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":144228,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Comparisons between predicted foEs and observed foEs. (a) Schematic figure showing the prediction time and the predicted period. Prediction for the 24–48 later is made at 0 JST. The predicted foEs and the observed foEs for three different periods at Okinawa in late 2019 are compared: (b) DOY 184–200, (c) DOY 221–236, and (d) DOY 260–276. The red line indicates a series of predicted foEs of 24–48 hours after the start of “free run” (without JRA-55 data). The black line indicates the observed foEs obtained by the ionosonde at Okinawa.","description":"","filename":"12.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/41e6727bf1eedf1aebbe8ba2.jpg"},{"id":4175914,"identity":"352dc765-d796-4965-9421-b5ff18c0ddb9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:22","extension":"jpg","order_by":13,"title":"Figure 13","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":59749,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Correlation coefficients of the observed foEs and predicted foEs. Scatter plots and correlation coefficients of one-hour data of the observed foEs and the predicted foEs are shown using the data from DOY 179 to DOY 299 at Okinawa in 2019.","description":"","filename":"13.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/282343cef0079b8668f8cabd.jpg"},{"id":13564106,"identity":"84a671ea-0208-4fea-80b3-aadabac1cf11","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-09-17 03:19:27","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1166196,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript2ndrev.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3_covered.pdf"},{"id":13546003,"identity":"6edab7a5-89b9-43ec-a261-909e670b53f4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-09-17 02:08:20","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":831882,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptrev1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v2_covered.pdf"},{"id":4175915,"identity":"2e5b52c6-e0dd-4ecd-a2da-c23ae92da36a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":389343,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript2ndrev.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3_stamped.pdf"},{"id":4175900,"identity":"8caa27c2-fdd5-4d76-999c-a4082078b283","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:20","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":98228,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Table2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/7df66fbd891457f1254e4d4e.pdf"},{"id":4175902,"identity":"c1b3b859-ba59-42ea-b4bb-bb57e4e1a867","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:20","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":63420,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Table1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/58339c7a5f9436539e25b2c4.pdf"},{"id":4175904,"identity":"163eece9-db9b-4656-a7c8-c64afaff899b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-12-10 20:58:20","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":414413,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"GraphicalAbstract.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-46157/v3/34ba38b0d8e662c9b012566f.jpg"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Numerical prediction of sporadic E layer occurrence using GAIA","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis preprint is available for \u003ca href='/article/rs-46157/latest.pdf' target='_blank'\u003edownload as a PDF\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"earth-planets-and-space","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"epsp","sideBox":"Learn more about [Earth, Planets and Space](http://earth-planets-space.springeropen.com)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/epsp/default.aspx","title":"Earth, Planets and Space","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"sporadic E layer, wind shear, occurrence, prediction, GAIA, model, vertical ion convergence","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-46157/v3","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-46157/v3","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"A sporadic E layer has significant influence on radio communications and broadcasting, and predicting the occurrence of sporadic E layers is one of the most important issues in space weather forecast. While sporadic E layer occurrence and the magnitude of the critical sporadic E frequency ( foEs ) have clear seasonal variations, significant day-to-day variations as well as regional and temporal variations also occur. Because of the highly complex behavior of sporadic E layers, the prediction of sporadic E layer occurrence has been one of the most difficult issues in space weather forecast. To explore the possibility of numerically predicting sporadic E layer occurrence, we employed the whole atmosphere–ionosphere coupled model GAIA, examining parameters related to the formation of sporadic E layer such as vertical ions velocities and vertical ion convergences at different altitudes between 90 km and 150 km. By comparing those parameters in GAIA with observed foEs data obtained by ionosonde observations in Japan, we found that variations in the vertical ion convergence at 120 km altitude agree fairly well with variations in foEs . This result suggests that sporadic E layer occurrence can be numerically predicted using the parameters derived from GAIA. We have recently developed a real-time GAIA simulation system that can predict atmosphere–ionosphere conditions for a few days ahead. We present an experimental prediction scheme and a preliminary result for predicting sporadic E layer occurrence.","manuscriptTitle":"Numerical prediction of sporadic E layer occurrence using GAIA","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":3,"date":"2020-12-10 20:58:18","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-46157/v3","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2020-12-02T00:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"decision","content":"Accept","date":"2020-12-02T00:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2020-12-01T23:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2020-12-01T23:00:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2020-12-01T00:00:00+00:00","index":1,"fulltext":"Recommendation: Reviewer's comments unavailable due to the journal's 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