The Nicaraguan Pediatric Influenza Cohort Study, 2011-2019: influenza incidence, seasonality, and transmission

ABSTRACT Background Children account for a large portion of global influenza burden and transmission, and a better understanding of influenza in children is needed to improve prevention and control strategies. Methods To examine the incidence and transmission of influenza we conducted a prospective community-based study of children aged 0-14 years in Managua, Nicaragua between 2011 and 2019. Participants were provided with medical care through study physicians and symptomatic influenza was confirmed by RT-PCR. Wavelet analyses were used to examine seasonality. Generalized growth models (GGMs) were used to estimate effective reproduction numbers. Results From 2011-2019, 3,016 children participated, with an average of ∼1,800 participants per year and median follow-up time of 5 years per child, and 48.3% of the cohort in 2019 had been enrolled their entire lives. The overall incidence rates per 100 person-years were 14.5 symptomatic influenza cases (95%CI: 13.9-15.1) and 1.0 influenza-associated ALRI case (95%CI: 0.8-1.1). Symptomatic influenza incidence peaked at age 9-11 months. Infants born during peak influenza circulation had lower incidence in the first year of their lives. The mean effective reproduction number was 1.2 (range 1.02-1.49), and we observed significant annual patterns for influenza and influenza A, and a 2.5-year period for influenza B. Conclusions This study provides important information for understanding influenza epidemiology and informing influenza vaccine policy. These results will aid in informing strategies to reduce the burden of influenza. Summary In this long-running influenza cohort, we found a substantial incidence of RT-PCR-confirmed influenza, and report by subtype/lineage. Infants born during influenza epidemics were protected from infection that first year. The mean effective reproduction number across years was 1.2.