Exploring the Ecosystem of K-12 Online Learning: An Empirical Study of Impact Mechanisms in the Post-Pandemic Era

With the normalization of the COVID-19 epidemic, online learning has gained prominence in the post-epidemic era. Understanding the impact mechanism of online learning on learning outcomes is crucial for large-scale online learning initiatives. This study proposed a framework based on an ecosystem theory to investigates the impact of K-12 online learning on academic achievement. A survey was conducted among 1,625 K-12 school students in Shenzhen, China, utilizing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) models. The results indicate the following: (1) Online learning engagement directly predicts academic achievement, acting as a mediator between personal and environmental factors; (2) Family involvement and school support have similar impacts on academic achievement, with family involvement slightly stronger; (3) The Big Five Personality traits, especially conscientiousness, openness, and emotional stability, mediate the influence of family and school investment on academic achievement; (4)School support affects academic achievement through online learning engagement, with emotional engagement having the most significant impact. Our model has proven to be robust in explaining the mechanism of influence on online learning achievement. This study contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of the online learning ecosystem in the post-pandemic era, which has been seldom explored in K-12 school settings.