Service Sector Growth in Iran: Knowledge-based Economy or Premature Deindustrialization?

Service Sector Growth in Iran: Knowledge-based Economy or Premature Deindustrialization? | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Service Sector Growth in Iran: Knowledge-based Economy or Premature Deindustrialization? Farshad Momeni, Soheil Fattahi, Seyed Mohammad Sajjad Najafi, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.2.24642/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In recent decades, most of the national economies have experienced a similar trend of growth in service sector. In economic literature service sector growth can be rooted in two distinct phenomena: knowledge-based economy or premature deindustrialization. This paper seeks to investigate the nature of service sector growth based on its effect on total factor productivity (TFP) in Iran. In particular, Kalman filter approach is used to estimate this effect. Service sector valued added and share of employment are used as the two separate proxies for service sector size in order to improve robustness of the results. Empirical results show that service sector growth did not increase overall productivity over the period of 1975-2015. Consequently, service sector growth in Iran did not root in knowledge-based economy and the whole progress could be considered as premature deindustrialization. Development Economics Service Sector TFP Knowledge-based Economy Premature Deindustrialization Kalman Filter Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-15200","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":370858,"identity":"61bc66d7-309a-426b-b76b-c97244a09129","order_by":1,"name":"Farshad Momeni","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Allameh Tabatabai University Faculty of Economics","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Farshad","middleName":"","lastName":"Momeni","suffix":""},{"id":370859,"identity":"b932bda9-a0ca-4b02-bfc6-e6bbf37c53ed","order_by":2,"name":"Soheil Fattahi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA70lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5gaGChAtwdj4AEjx8BHWwtjAcIbBQAKopdkApIWNBC0MbBIgPkEt8u2NDQwHav7U8c9ubqv8mmMnw8bA/PDRDTxaDM4cBGo5ZiAhcedg223ZbclAh7EZG+fg0yKR2MD8gQ3osBuJbbcltzEDtfCwSePTIj8jEWjLPwMJeaCWYslt9YS1AA1vYDjYZiBhANTC+HHbYcJaQH45cLDPWHLjjcRmacZtx3nYmAn4Rb69+eCDA9/k+OVupD/8+HNbtT0/e/PDx3gdBgQHYAxmHjBJQDkKYPxBiupRMApGwSgYMQAAv5pKFwN25nwAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9352-3262","institution":"Allameh Tabatabai University","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Soheil","middleName":"","lastName":"Fattahi","suffix":""},{"id":370860,"identity":"81cbdb37-b75f-4689-ac57-8bee8233c01a","order_by":3,"name":"Seyed Mohammad Sajjad Najafi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Allameh Tabatabai University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Seyed","middleName":"Mohammad Sajjad","lastName":"Najafi","suffix":""},{"id":370861,"identity":"3961224a-9493-4d1c-a3c4-a1627522e31a","order_by":4,"name":"Shahabodin Fuladi Moghadam","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Allameh Tabatabai University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shahabodin","middleName":"Fuladi","lastName":"Moghadam","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2020-02-25 12:57:56","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.2.24642/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.2.24642/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":554239,"identity":"e603de4f-a00f-4108-a206-052503d008bf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-02-26 22:08:23","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":145210,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Employment share of Iran's economic sectors 1997-2016. 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