The Impact of the Cement Industry on the Labor Market in Baranya County in the Context of the Just Transition Fund

As a newly established instrument of EU Cohesion Policy, the Just Transition Fund (JTF) aims to support regions most affected by the transition to climate neutrality. This study examines Baranya County in Hungary, where eligibility was primarily driven by the cement industry. The research investigates the economic and labor market impacts of recent regulatory changes—specifically supplementary mining royalties and CO₂ tax—on stakeholders in the cement and lime sectors. Using survey data from affected production units and industry trend analysis, the findings reveal substantial financial losses among local enterprises, prompting operational restructuring and reduced output. This decline in domestic cement and lime production is expected to cause job losses and the emigration of skilled labor, especially engineers. The anticipated reduction in national production capacity may lead to increased reliance on imports, driving up construction costs. Additionally, financial pressures on domestic producers threaten their competitiveness, potentially resulting in temporary plant closures. These closures are likely to affect the wider regional supply chain, forcing SMEs to downsize or suspend operations. In conclusion, the study highlights a convergence of economic risks, including brain drain and industrial contraction, that undermine the goals of the Just Transition and require targeted policy responses.