The Atmospheric Footprint: Detection and Measurement of Illegal Economic Activity

The Atmospheric Footprint: Detection and Measurement of Illegal Economic Activity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Atmospheric Footprint: Detection and Measurement of Illegal Economic Activity Werner Hernani-Limarino This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9697197/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper detects illegal economic activity using satellite atmospheric data. A gradient-boosted model maps census observables to tropospheric NO 2 across Bolivia’s 344 municipalities (R 2 = 0.86); the residual identifies locations where combustion exceeds predictions. Fire controls are essential: they separate cocaine processing (Chimoré, posterior 0.92) from coca agriculture (Villa Tunari, posterior < 0.06) within a single zone. A difference-in-differences design exploiting Bolivia’s 2024–2025 dollar crisis provides the strongest validation: the Chapare NO 2 residual falls 6.2 percentage points (t = −4.95); a continuous-treatment specification using the parallel-market premium yields t = −6.52. A cross-country comparison confirms that known chuto hubs have higher weekday/weekend NO 2 ratios than comparable foreign cities (p = 0.006). Size estimates bracket coca/cocaine production at US$63–77 million annually and the unregistered vehicle fleet at 250,000– 500,000 units. JEL Codes: O17, C81, K42, Q56 Development Economics Atmospheric Sciences illegal economy satellite data nitrogen dioxide size estimation de- tection Bolivia Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9697197","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":639342946,"identity":"072a0678-d04f-480f-9c7d-46d93de0a723","order_by":0,"name":"Werner Hernani-Limarino","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPCCAzL8ICqhgAQtPJINIC0GpGgxOACiidFicLz32YOPe+7wGJ9fnfjhgQGDPL/YAQJazhw3N5zx7BmP2Y23myWADjOcOTsBvxazG2ls0jwHDgO1nN0A0pJgcJuQlvvP2KT/ALUYzzi7+QdxWm6wsUkzALUY8PduI84W+zNpbJI9QC0SN3i3WSQYSBD2i2T7MTaJHwcOy/H3n91880eFjTy/NAEtCCABVilBrHIQ4D9AiupRMApGwSgYSQAA195GO9lDrmMAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"AI Analytics","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Werner","middleName":"","lastName":"Hernani-Limarino","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-05-13 01:39:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9697197/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9697197/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109297818,"identity":"ea0fc873-863d-464c-a7b5-05f7c11833d6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-15 09:06:20","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2058235,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"atmosphericfootprint.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9697197/v1_covered_5323ad78-17b2-442d-8079-9002153af4c9.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eThe Atmospheric Footprint: Detection and Measurement of Illegal Economic Activity\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"illegal economy, satellite data, nitrogen dioxide, size estimation, de- tection, Bolivia","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9697197/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9697197/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper detects illegal economic activity using satellite atmospheric data. A gradient-boosted model maps census observables to tropospheric NO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e across Bolivia’s 344 municipalities (R\u003csup\u003e2 \u003c/sup\u003e= 0.86); the residual identifies locations where combustion exceeds predictions. Fire controls are essential: they separate cocaine processing (Chimoré, posterior 0.92) from coca agriculture (Villa Tunari, posterior \u0026lt; 0.06) within a single zone. A difference-in-differences design exploiting Bolivia’s 2024–2025 dollar crisis provides the strongest validation: the Chapare NO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e residual falls 6.2 percentage points (t = −4.95); a continuous-treatment specification using the parallel-market premium yields t = −6.52. A cross-country comparison confirms that known chuto hubs have higher weekday/weekend NO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e ratios than comparable foreign cities (p = 0.006). 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