Loading of a porous rock with constant micro-seismic event rate suppresses seismicity and promotes subcritical failure

Loading of a porous rock with constant micro-seismic event rate suppresses seismicity and promotes subcritical failure | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Loading of a porous rock with constant micro-seismic event rate suppresses seismicity and promotes subcritical failure Maria-Daphne Mangriotis, Alexis Cartwright-Taylor, Ian Main, Andrew Curtis, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3054375/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Jun, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 2 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Catastrophic failure is the end result of progressive localisation of damage creating brittle failure on a variety of system scales in the Earth. However, the factors controlling this evolution, and the relationship between deformation and the resulting earthquake hazard, are not well constrained. Here we address the question of how to adapt operational controls in a strain-inducing laboratory experiment so as to minimize associated microseismicity. We simultaneously image the induced damage using x-rays at a synchrotron, and detect acoustic emissions which can be fed back to change operational controls on the experiment. We confirm that using continuous servo-control based on acoustic emission event rate not only slows down deformation compared to standard constant strain rate loading, but also suppresses events of all sizes, including extreme events. We develop a new model that explains this observation, based on the observed evolution of microstructural damage and the fracture mechanics of subcritical crack growth. The model is independently consistent with the observed stress history and acoustic emission statistics. Our results imply that including seismic event rate control may improve risk management of induced seismicity over a range of event magnitudes, if similar processes are relevant at larger scales. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Solid earth sciences/Seismology Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Scientificreportssupplementarymaterialsubmitted.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 03 Jun, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 2 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 06 Mar, 2025 Reviews received at journal 17 Feb, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Jan, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Jan, 2025 Reviews received at journal 14 Jan, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Jan, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 05 Jan, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 20 Dec, 2024 Editor invited by journal 19 Dec, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 19 Dec, 2024 First submitted to journal 05 Dec, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3054375","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2023-06-15 19:27:51","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":415853346,"identity":"c4c217c1-663d-43bf-9af0-2e0d96a8574d","order_by":0,"name":"Maria-Daphne Mangriotis","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAr0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACGzjLgFgtaaRrOUyCFt32s083/NxxPo+f/QDjhx8Mh40JajE7k252s/fM7WLJngRmyR6Gw2aEtRxIY7vB23Y7ccMNBgZpoAttCGs5/4zt5t+2cyAtzL+J03Ijje02b9sBkBY2kC1EOOzGM7bbsm3JiTN7EtssewzSifD++TS2m2/b7BL72Q8fvvGjwtqwgaAeBGBsICEiR8EoGAWjYBTgBQCXkzv/aHDErwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"National Oceanography Centre","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Maria-Daphne","middleName":"","lastName":"Mangriotis","suffix":""},{"id":415853347,"identity":"30ea62d1-969d-457d-b14b-e0f77a304181","order_by":1,"name":"Alexis Cartwright-Taylor","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Heriot-Watt University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alexis","middleName":"","lastName":"Cartwright-Taylor","suffix":""},{"id":415853348,"identity":"9c978df4-2da2-431f-a0f9-90b011d8ccdc","order_by":2,"name":"Ian Main","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Edinburgh","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ian","middleName":"","lastName":"Main","suffix":""},{"id":415853349,"identity":"1b938d3e-3a20-496e-acc0-98f24798d530","order_by":3,"name":"Andrew Curtis","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Edinburgh","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrew","middleName":"","lastName":"Curtis","suffix":""},{"id":415853350,"identity":"7739e597-e2a6-43a5-940b-51f9731e3e1d","order_by":4,"name":"Andrew Bell","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Edinburgh","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrew","middleName":"","lastName":"Bell","suffix":""},{"id":415853351,"identity":"c30db0fd-3dff-43d5-bf89-b939b8c2b84a","order_by":5,"name":"Ian B. 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