Inference of cancer driver mutations from tumor microenvironment composition: a pan-cancer study with cross-platform external validation

Cancer driver mutations shape the tumor microenvironment (TME), yet whether TME composition alone can predict genotype has not been systematically evaluated across cancers with external validation. We trained machine learning models to predict driver mutation status from TME cell-type composition signatures derived from bulk transcriptomes. Tissue-specific TME signatures (22–28 programs per cancer) were scored from RNA-seq data in TCGA for glioblastoma (GBM, n=157 total; n=90 EGFR-amplification evaluable), breast cancer (BRCA, n=1,082 total; n=994 evaluable), lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD, n=510 total; n=502 evaluable), and colorectal cancer (CRC, n=592 total; n=524 evaluable), then externally validated on independent cohorts spanning different platforms: CPTAC (GBM, n=65), METABRIC (BRCA, n=1,859), GSE72094 (LUAD, n=442), and GSE39582 (CRC, n=585). Of 15 driver–cancer pairs tested, 14 achieved external AUC ≥0.65, with top performance for ERBB2 amplification in BRCA (AUC=0.980), BRAF mutation in CRC (0.899), and TP53 mutation in BRCA (0.871). TME-predicted ERBB2 status stratified overall survival in METABRIC (Cox HR=1.73, p=7.95×10 −8 ). Marginal KRAS performance in LUAD (AUC=0.615) reflected opposing TME profiles in KRAS+STK11 versus KRAS+TP53 co-mutant tumors. These results demonstrate that TME composition encodes sufficient information to infer driver mutations across cancers.