Redlining, Reinvestment, and Racial Segregation: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Mortgage Lending Trajectories and Firearm-Related Violence

Redlining, Reinvestment, and Racial Segregation: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Mortgage Lending Trajectories and Firearm-Related Violence | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Redlining, Reinvestment, and Racial Segregation: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Mortgage Lending Trajectories and Firearm-Related Violence Gia Barboza-Salerno, Brittany Liebhard, Sharefa Duhaney, Taylor Harrington This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5130314/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 May, 2025 Read the published version in Injury Epidemiology → Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background : In the United States, firearm-related violence disproportionately impacts low-income, racially segregated communities more than affluent, predominantly White neighborhoods. This trend stems from historical disinvestment, discriminatory lending practices, and persistent structural inequalities. Housing policies have enforced racial segregation, limiting wealth accumulation in low-income communities. This study examines the relationship between historical and contemporary lending discrimination in mortgage originations and firearm-related violence in Chicago, Illinois. By analyzing investment and disinvestment patterns, we assess how housing discrimination continues to influence the risk of victimization in various social contexts. Methods : Redlining scores were derived from the 1930s Homeowners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) grades, while contemporary lending indicators were obtained from the 2019 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA). We classified neighborhoods into four lending trajectories—sustained disinvestment, disinvestment, growing investment, and high investment—based on historical redlining and contemporary mortgage lending patterns. Sustained disinvestment reflects historical redlining and ongoing lending discrimination, while growing investment targets areas that were historically redlined but are now experiencing increased lending activity. Bayesian spatial models examined firearm-related homicide risk across lending trajectories, adjusting for area deprivation index (ADI) and racial segregation. Results : In unadjusted models, sustained disinvestment (Relative Risk [RR] = 2.230, 95% CrI: [1.352, 3.681]) was associated with increased firearm-related homicide risk, while growing investment (RR = 0.782, 95% CrI: [0.452, 1.359]) and high investment (RR = 0.146, 95% CrI: [0.054, 0.397]) were associated with lower risk. After adjusting for ADI and racial segregation, the effect of sustained disinvestment attenuated (RR = 1.714, 95% CrI: [1.054, 2.791]), suggesting partial mediation. However, growing investment increased by 155% (RR = 1.987, 95% CrI: [1.144, 3.458]), indicating suppression, indicating that ADI and segregation initially masked its association with firearm homicide risk. Conclusion : Findings highlight the need for policies that address the long-term effects of lending discrimination. Reverse redlining—where financial institutions target minority communities with high-cost loans—further exacerbates existing inequities. Additionally, neighborhood deprivation and segregation shape firearm-related violence risk, underscoring the broader consequences of systemic housing discrimination. housing discrimination Bayesian spatial model gun violence area deprivation HMDA Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Tables 1 to 4 are available in the Supplementary Files section. Supplementary Files lendingtrajectoriesrevisionsfinaltables2.15.25.docx SupplementaryAppendix.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 May, 2025 Read the published version in Injury Epidemiology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Accepted 06 Apr, 2025 Reviews received at journal 04 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 04 Apr, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 04 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 02 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5130314","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":439033459,"identity":"91136a3a-b391-482d-8b0f-2341b90f7dfa","order_by":0,"name":"Gia Barboza-Salerno","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAwYGNiiTuQFMsbFDaMYGwlqgavh4DpCqRU4iAb8Wc/azzx58+GPHIN9+sPFx5Q4bBjbJx4c/8zDYyG44gF2LZU+6ueEMnmQGgzOJzYZnz6QxsEmnpUnzMKQZ49JicCCNTZpHgrl+A0Nim2Rj22GglhwzZh6Gw4k4tZx/BtRiUM8g3/+w/SdYi+QZY6DD/uPWcgNkS8JhBoYbiW2MYC0SPAZAhx3AqcVyxjN2wxkHjgP1PmwGOiyNh40nLU1yjkGy8UwcWsz509iAIVYNdFjywY+NbTZy8u2HD394U2En24dDCwbggTqYSOWjYBSMglEwCrACANlRVk4LsZ8WAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"The Ohio State University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gia","middleName":"","lastName":"Barboza-Salerno","suffix":""},{"id":439033460,"identity":"85b407aa-e47b-4646-8251-a7b5f3e65f6d","order_by":1,"name":"Brittany Liebhard","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The Ohio State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Brittany","middleName":"","lastName":"Liebhard","suffix":""},{"id":439033461,"identity":"0e0a9d6b-7809-45c2-a356-698481f43bf2","order_by":2,"name":"Sharefa Duhaney","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The Ohio State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sharefa","middleName":"","lastName":"Duhaney","suffix":""},{"id":439033462,"identity":"9c2ffa9b-64e5-4194-a79b-7813111ea098","order_by":3,"name":"Taylor Harrington","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The Ohio State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Taylor","middleName":"","lastName":"Harrington","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-09-21 23:23:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5130314/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5130314/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-025-00579-9","type":"published","date":"2025-05-02T15:57:28+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":80052118,"identity":"11f802e6-e823-4b50-a3c6-3cb3b033370e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 10:36:44","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":40401,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eDirected acyclic graph (DAG) illustrating hypothesized relationships among key variables\u003c/em\u003e: Historical redlining score (HR), area deprivation (ADI), racial segregation (RS), mortgage lending (ML), and firearm-related violence (FV). Area deprivation (ADI) and racial segregation RS are conceptualized as confounders of the association between mortgage lending (ML) and firearm-related violence (FV), shaped by historic redlining (HR) but not influencing it. Arrows indicate hypothesized pathways. The conceptual model reinforces our theoretical model positing that structural racism manifests through both historical and contemporary policies and practices.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5130314/v1/fd2ef91746de418cbc849f78.png"},{"id":80052979,"identity":"1b10f38b-9574-4a31-8fe1-fd8d9e313c31","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 10:44:44","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":363477,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eSpatial distribution of firearm-related homicide in Chicago\u003c/em\u003e. Map of lending trajectories with point locations of 2019 firearm homicides. Grey census tracts are missing lending trajectory (and were excluded from analyses).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5130314/v1/9fe7831ab9c94a6627beeaf5.png"},{"id":80052119,"identity":"40b6ae21-0870-4411-bcb9-7d09b7c23682","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 10:36:44","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":256380,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eConditional map of firearm homicide Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) by lending trajec\u003c/em\u003etory. Same color palette as previous plot (lightest yellow is no firearm homicides for 2019 (SMR = 0); dark red is highest quantile of SMR; dark grey census tracts are missing lending trajectory and were excluded from analyses).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5130314/v1/9e9c99f3d814f04809bc9300.png"},{"id":80052129,"identity":"54952e2b-ed22-4ff6-8f3d-d4ea3d4e6d5a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 10:36:44","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":470408,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eConditional map of firearm homicide Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) by lending trajectory and Area Level Deprivation (ADI) tertile\u003c/em\u003e. Same color palette as previous plots (lightest yellow is no firearm homicides for 2019 (SMR = 0); dark red is highest quantile of SMR; dark grey census tracts are missing lending trajectory and were excluded from analyses).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5130314/v1/bc0842025b2a920692101544.png"},{"id":80054145,"identity":"a62b2f9e-a668-424f-ae0c-1774ff8c85a6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 11:00:44","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":62153,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eDistribution of beta coefficients and uncertainty estimates\u003c/em\u003e. Beta coefficients from the Bayesian spatial model showing the estimates and credible intervals of gun violence relative risk in areas of growing investment, sustained disinvestment, the least deprived 10% of neighborhoods (vs the most deprived 10%), and racial segregation.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5130314/v1/0234f0c784892cc08c81e41d.png"},{"id":80053340,"identity":"b91e5b74-a4ac-4d82-99d5-bbb5e5d7b56b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 10:52:44","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":94692,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eFirearm-related relative risk estimates within Area Deprivation Deciles. \u003c/em\u003eAssociation between firearm-related homicide relative risk (RR \u0026gt; 1, 2, 3 and 4) and Area Level Deprivation (decile) across lending trajectories. The y-axis quantifies the probability that the RR of gun violence is \u0026gt; 1,2,3, or 4 for each lending trajectory within ADI deciles.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5130314/v1/d69f38d81c32ba5a47db8031.png"},{"id":81988099,"identity":"a9e37ca3-d7b1-4cd5-9bfb-aa4e3033099d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-05-05 16:07:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":756229,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"lendingtrajectoriesrevisionsfinal4.1.25.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5130314/v1_covered_cffaecd4-e670-4f26-b190-0d0a444051ed.pdf"},{"id":80053342,"identity":"93d0c6b1-b488-4d01-bb42-4d5dcddeea34","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 10:52:44","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":27135,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"lendingtrajectoriesrevisionsfinaltables2.15.25.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5130314/v1/7bb77edcd4f799b5bda102b4.docx"},{"id":80052125,"identity":"e97beb0e-77d1-43d2-9b01-7f343aada01e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-07 10:36:44","extension":"docx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":27467,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryAppendix.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5130314/v1/e7cc0e43eea6810b080bfd57.docx"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eNo competing interests reported.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTables 1 to 4 are available in the Supplementary Files section.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"Redlining, Reinvestment, and Racial Segregation: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Mortgage Lending Trajectories and Firearm-Related Violence","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"injury-epidemiology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"inep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Injury Epidemiology](https://injepijournal.biomedcentral.com)","snPcode":"40621","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/40621/3","title":"Injury Epidemiology","twitterHandle":"@InjuryEpi","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"housing discrimination, Bayesian spatial model, gun violence, area deprivation, HMDA","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5130314/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5130314/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBackground\u003c/strong\u003e: In the United States, firearm-related violence disproportionately impacts low-income, racially segregated communities more than affluent, predominantly White neighborhoods. This trend stems from historical disinvestment, discriminatory lending practices, and persistent structural inequalities. Housing policies have enforced racial segregation, limiting wealth accumulation in low-income communities. This study examines the relationship between historical and contemporary lending discrimination in mortgage originations and firearm-related violence in Chicago, Illinois. By analyzing investment and disinvestment patterns, we assess how housing discrimination continues to influence the risk of victimization in various social contexts.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods\u003c/strong\u003e: Redlining scores were derived from the 1930s Homeowners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) grades, while contemporary lending indicators were obtained from the 2019 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA). We classified neighborhoods into four lending trajectories—sustained disinvestment, disinvestment, growing investment, and high investment—based on historical redlining and contemporary mortgage lending patterns. Sustained disinvestment reflects historical redlining and ongoing lending discrimination, while growing investment targets areas that were historically redlined but are now experiencing increased lending activity. Bayesian spatial models examined firearm-related homicide risk across lending trajectories, adjusting for area deprivation index (ADI) and racial segregation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults\u003c/strong\u003e: In unadjusted models, sustained disinvestment (Relative Risk [RR] = 2.230, 95% CrI: [1.352, 3.681]) was associated with increased firearm-related homicide risk, while growing investment (RR = 0.782, 95% CrI: [0.452, 1.359]) and high investment (RR = 0.146, 95% CrI: [0.054, 0.397]) were associated with lower risk. After adjusting for ADI and racial segregation, the effect of sustained disinvestment attenuated (RR = 1.714, 95% CrI: [1.054, 2.791]), suggesting partial mediation. However, growing investment increased by 155% (RR = 1.987, 95% CrI: [1.144, 3.458]), indicating suppression, indicating that ADI and segregation initially masked its association with firearm homicide risk.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusion\u003c/strong\u003e: Findings highlight the need for policies that address the long-term effects of lending discrimination. Reverse redlining—where financial institutions target minority communities with high-cost loans—further exacerbates existing inequities. Additionally, neighborhood deprivation and segregation shape firearm-related violence risk, underscoring the broader consequences of systemic housing discrimination.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Redlining, Reinvestment, and Racial Segregation: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis of Mortgage Lending Trajectories and Firearm-Related Violence","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-07 10:36:39","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5130314/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Accepted","date":"2025-04-06T12:32:45+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-04-04T15:16:10+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"185593089499309523684335923710393905963","date":"2025-04-04T14:50:31+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-04-04T14:30:56+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-04-04T08:08:58+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Injury Epidemiology","date":"2025-04-02T14:13:32+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"injury-epidemiology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"inep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Injury Epidemiology](https://injepijournal.biomedcentral.com)","snPcode":"40621","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/40621/3","title":"Injury Epidemiology","twitterHandle":"@InjuryEpi","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"79931cbf-a771-4eaf-9d7a-c377bb8fad9d","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 7th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-05-05T16:05:24+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-5130314","link":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-025-00579-9","journal":{"identity":"injury-epidemiology","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Injury Epidemiology"},"publishedOn":"2025-05-02 15:57:28","publishedOnDateReadable":"May 2nd, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-07 10:36:39","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1186/s40621-025-00579-9","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-025-00579-9","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5130314","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5130314","identity":"rs-5130314","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}