Comparing the Performance of IRI-2020 and AfriTEC Ionospheric Models Over East Africa In Case Of Ethiopia During Disturbed Time

Comparing the Performance of IRI-2020 and AfriTEC Ionospheric Models Over East Africa In Case Of Ethiopia During Disturbed Time | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Comparing the Performance of IRI-2020 and AfriTEC Ionospheric Models Over East Africa In Case Of Ethiopia During Disturbed Time Melaku Belayneh Bagaje This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5584834/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study evaluates the performance of IRI-2020 and AfriTEC ionospheric models in predicting Total Electron Content (TEC) variations during geomagnetically disturbed time over East Africa in the case of Ethiopia. In equatorial places like Ethiopia, the geomagnetic disturbance of the ionosphere can cause significant changes during disturbed time, which could lead to inaccurate position and timing data in satellite navigation and communication systems. For Ethiopian sectoral radio long-distance transmission, it is significant that the electron density can fluctuate diurnally, monthly and seasonally due to variations in the height and peak density of the F-region. To minimize this problem, we use the IRI-2020 model, the AfriTEC model, and GPS-TEC data. The IRI-2020 model data predicted from the instant run version, the AfriTEC model data predicated MatLab toolbox, and GPS-derived TEC data were obtained from the IGS network of ground-based dual-frequency GPS receivers from five Ethiopian sectors. By using geomagnetic parameters from Omniweb data sources, particularly the DST index ranging from -70 to 20 nT for 2016. The results show a consistent daily and monthly correlation between the estimated TEC from both models and the GPS-TEC, with notable seasonal variations. While the models demonstrated good agreement across all seasons, discrepancies were observed in December and June. Seasonal equinox and solstice periods were particularly analyzed, with AfriTEC showing an overestimation of TEC by 3 to 50 TECU in April, yet having a lower root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.36 compared to IRI-2020. Finally, the diurnal, monthly, seasonal statistical RMSE values indicate that the IRI-2020 RMSE is a maximum error and the AfriTEC RMSE is the minimum error value. Therefore, the evidence shows that the AfriTEC ionospheric model gives a better prediction of the TEC at Ethiopian sectors and shows its superior performance in capturing ionospheric behavior during disturbed periods. Astrophysics and Cosmology Space Exploration Geophysics IRI-2020 model AfriTEC model vTEC GPS-TEC RMSE. Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare potential competing interests as follows: No conflict of interest Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5584834","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":386538858,"identity":"9d4b80ad-1d2f-4cfe-8919-8511c7fedca8","order_by":0,"name":"Melaku Belayneh Bagaje","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABFklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5gbGBoYDDHwgNmNDjRyIPvAArxZGiBY2CPuYMVhLAglamBMbQAx8WnTbGxs/zmy7I8fGfsbswccdbOnzww4/BNpiJ6fbgF2L2ZmDzZIb254Zs/HkmBvOPCOTu/F2mgFQS7Kx2QEcWm4kNkg+bDuc2MaQYybN28aWu3F2AkjLgcRtuLTcf9j8E6ilvo3/jZn03zbmdMPZ6R/wa7nB2AZ02OEENgmgLYxtzAny0jkEbDmT2GY549wzwzaJZ2WSvW3HDDdI5xQcSDDA45fjhw/f7Cm7I8/Pn7xN4mdbjbz87PTNHz5U2Mnh0oIEOAzAlAFYpQFB5SDA/gBMyTcQpXoUjIJRMApGEAAANzVrL5rq2rIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8697-9191","institution":"Wolaita Sodo University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Melaku","middleName":"Belayneh","lastName":"Bagaje","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-12-05 07:55:40","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":true,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":true,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true,"humanSubjectConsent":true,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":true,"humanSubjectCaseReport":true,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5584834/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5584834/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":70895002,"identity":"1297b2cf-e3bc-4c08-9f08-cbdaff0d93f1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-09 04:24:01","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1862311,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"AaIRIAfriTEC.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5584834/v1_covered_5e5d9123-e132-4374-91d6-6afdd4bbf188.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare potential competing interests as follows: No conflict of interest","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eComparing the Performance of IRI-2020 and AfriTEC Ionospheric Models Over East Africa In Case Of Ethiopia During Disturbed Time\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Wolaita Sodo University","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"IRI-2020 model, AfriTEC model, vTEC, GPS-TEC, RMSE.","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5584834/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5584834/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\tThis study evaluates the performance of IRI-2020 and AfriTEC ionospheric models in predicting Total Electron Content (TEC) variations during geomagnetically disturbed time over East Africa in the case of Ethiopia. In equatorial places like Ethiopia, the geomagnetic disturbance of the ionosphere can cause significant changes during disturbed time, which could lead to inaccurate position and timing data in satellite navigation and communication systems. For Ethiopian sectoral radio long-distance transmission, it is significant that the electron density can fluctuate diurnally, monthly and seasonally due to variations in the height and peak density of the F-region. To minimize this problem, we use the IRI-2020 model, the AfriTEC model, and GPS-TEC data. The IRI-2020 model data predicted from the instant run version, the AfriTEC model data predicated MatLab toolbox, and GPS-derived TEC data were obtained from the IGS network of ground-based dual-frequency GPS receivers from five Ethiopian sectors. By using geomagnetic parameters from Omniweb data sources, particularly the DST index ranging from -70 to 20 nT for 2016. The results show a consistent daily and monthly correlation between the estimated TEC from both models and the GPS-TEC, with notable seasonal variations. While the models demonstrated good agreement across all seasons, discrepancies were observed in December and June. Seasonal equinox and solstice periods were particularly analyzed, with AfriTEC showing an overestimation of TEC by 3 to 50 TECU in April, yet having a lower root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.36 compared to IRI-2020. Finally, the diurnal, monthly, seasonal statistical RMSE values indicate that the IRI-2020 RMSE is a maximum error and the AfriTEC RMSE is the minimum error value. Therefore, the evidence shows that the AfriTEC ionospheric model gives a better prediction of the TEC at Ethiopian sectors and shows its superior performance in capturing ionospheric behavior during disturbed periods.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Comparing the Performance of IRI-2020 and AfriTEC Ionospheric Models Over East Africa In Case Of Ethiopia During Disturbed Time","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-12-09 04:23:35","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5584834/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":2}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"08140fbe-f985-422a-aca8-d3e8d60bdf2e","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 9th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":41186586,"name":"Astrophysics and Cosmology"},{"id":41186587,"name":"Space Exploration"},{"id":41186588,"name":"Geophysics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-05-24T12:54:00+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-12-09 04:23:35","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5584834","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5584834","identity":"rs-5584834","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}