Global huge grain production potential adapted to future climate change

Global huge grain production potential adapted to future climate change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Global huge grain production potential adapted to future climate change Xueqi Liu, Yansui Liu, Zongfeng Chen This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743316/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate warming and intensified extreme climate weathers have diverse influence on global food production over past decades. However, there is insufficient understanding of the adaptation in future climate change to fully release food production potential on the existing cultivated land. Here we separately simulated spatio-temporal evolution of per unit yield, potential yields and yield gaps for rice, maize, wheat and soybean under four future climate scenarios in the near-term, mid-term and long-term future. The potential yields of rice, maize, wheat and soybean will be significantly rising, and the yield gaps will separately reach 4.01×10 8 t, 3.41×10 8 t, 5.71×10 8 t, 1.11×10 8 t under the optimal scenario in the long-term future. We divided three types to differentiate future food production potential in different countries, including steady increased production type, fluctuation increased production type and overload production type, and global rice (77.45%), maize (67.46%), wheat (76.64%) and soybean (69.70%) growing countries will be mainly steady increased production type. We intergrate simulation results under differnt future climate scenarios and propose differentiated sustainable strategies for each food production potential type to ensure future global food security and enhance agricultural system resilience. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Scientific community and society/Agriculture Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryFile.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4743316","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":363735945,"identity":"d179365b-7994-4be0-95f7-89e58c7f1623","order_by":0,"name":"Xueqi Liu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPmYIzcPG3nyAOC1sMC38PMcSiNQCY0jOyDEgUgs7j5k0T4W1jMGBnI8fftTUMfDPbiDkMB5jY54z6TwGB85uluw5dphB4s4BgloMH/O2HeYxONi7DRgIBxgMJBIIajE4zPsPqOUwzzPGP//qiNICtKXhMI9kGw8bM28bMzFa2IoN5xxLBwYym7G0bN9hHokbBLTw8x/eJvGmxtqeTf7xw49vvtXJ8c8goAUKmOEsHqLUo2gZBaNgFIyCUYABALGkNihJqLvOAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xueqi","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":363735946,"identity":"d4bbe5d0-9fca-4226-a58b-2468c5a9154e","order_by":1,"name":"Yansui Liu","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6636-7313","institution":"Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yansui","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":363735947,"identity":"90ef3296-6968-4bc1-b7bb-036b16d897d8","order_by":2,"name":"Zongfeng Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zongfeng","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-15 13:46:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743316/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743316/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86172509,"identity":"1b3db2d3-7bf0-4015-b24e-9cdc4995065b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-07 14:40:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1353967,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4743316/v1_covered_c451d0d9-494f-4b83-b0a4-2ea5d7200cc9.pdf"},{"id":66302064,"identity":"3c62e284-3f40-4f40-8f5a-77f9042f6ae4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-10 06:17:29","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1815516,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryFile.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4743316/v1/b2eb7ca136efeec724ff3d36.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Global huge grain production potential adapted to future climate change","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743316/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4743316/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eClimate warming and intensified extreme climate weathers have diverse influence on global food production over past decades. However, there is insufficient understanding of the adaptation in future climate change to fully release food production potential on the existing cultivated land. Here we separately simulated spatio-temporal evolution of per unit yield, potential yields and yield gaps for rice, maize, wheat and soybean under four future climate scenarios in the near-term, mid-term and long-term future. The potential yields of rice, maize, wheat and soybean will be significantly rising, and the yield gaps will separately reach 4.01×10\u003csup\u003e8 \u003c/sup\u003et, 3.41×10\u003csup\u003e8 \u003c/sup\u003et, 5.71×10\u003csup\u003e8 \u003c/sup\u003et, 1.11×10\u003csup\u003e8 \u003c/sup\u003et under the optimal scenario in the long-term future. 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