Positive association of supersaturation effects in the human airways with influenza activity in subtropical climate: influenza seasons in Okinawa (2007-2012) – New method for analyzing and forecasting (first preliminary results)

There are many theories of the seasonality of influenza for different climatic zones. But none of the known theories provides a clear explanation, especially for the tropical and subtropical climate. Here we have originally analyzed the association/connection of activity of seasonal influenza in Okinawa (subtropical zone) with the probability of occurring of supersaturation in the human airways when inhaling environmental air under specific weather conditions. We have shown for the first time that the effects of supersaturation in the human airways may be associated with main representative peaks of intensity/activity of influenza in Okinawa in the period of observation from Jan 2007 until Dec 2012 including 2009 pandemic. Our observation is the first one which clearly shows in the practice that the effect of supersaturation in the airways can be used for understanding and forecast the influenza activity in subtropical and tropical zones. Because the effect of supersaturation may lead to an additional risk of acidification of epithelial lining fluid in the local areas of the respiratory tract and to additional risk of deposition of infectious agents from inhaled air in the upper airways.